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The Australian dollar largely tracked USD direction

Wed, Jul 16 2008, 06:12 GMT
by Westpac Institutional Bank Team

Westpac Institutional Bank

News and views

The overnight session was a very whippy one with rumours and event risks driving equities, commodities and hence currencies in either direction through the day. In terms of order of events the main drivers were - soft German data early (driving a stronger USD), rumours Saudi will break its USD peg (driving the USD lower), an announcement by GM it is going to suspend its dividend (driving equities lower), Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony (headlines dovish but detail more balanced), sharp declines in gold and oil driven by rumours a hedge fund was liquidating a large oil position, then an announcement that Iran will meet the EU Foreign Minister on Saturday. All up this saw the New Zealand dollar higher during the London morning, posting a high of 0.7763, before giving back ground to around 0.7715.

The Australian dollar largely tracked USD direction, posting a new post float high of 0.9851 but then retreating to the 0.9775 area as oil and gold fell in NY trade.

USD/JPY was sharply lower early on the softer USD and softer equities, the pair reaching a low of 104.16 before grinding back to 104.85 as DJIA climbed off the canvas.

EUR/USD posted a new lifetime high of 1.6040 (up 1 cent vs late Welly trade) following the rumour Saudi would break their USD peg, but the pair later gave it all back and more (to below 1.59) as oil prices slumped from over $146/bbl to the mid-$138 region.

The key point from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke in his testimony, presenting the Fed’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, was that “The possibility of higher energy prices, tighter credit conditions, and a still-deeper contraction in housing markets all represent significant downside risks to the outlook for growth.” This effectively supercedes the June 25 FOMC statement, which said that “although downside risks to growth remain, they appear to have diminished somewhat”. That is a strong signal that there is no near-term intention to begin retightening monetary policy.

US PPI up 1.8% in June, with gasoline prices up another 9% (as in May), and food rising 1.5%. The core rate was subdued at 0.2%, which suggests that there is no additional pressure on underlying consumer price inflation from the factory sector, despite surging commodity prices. Auto prices bounced 2.2% but that was offset by a further 1.8% fall in light truck prices.

US retail sales up 0.1% in June. Retail sales lost some momentum in June, suggesting the impact of the tax rebate cheques might be fading. The core measure rose just 0.2%, following gains averaging about 1% in the first two months of Q2.

In other US news: very weak but steady consumer confidence in July, consistent with last week’s preliminary UoM consumer sentiment report for July; May business inventories posted a weak 0.3% gain constrained by a 0.2% fall in retail stocks; the NY Fed factory index was less weak in July at –5, and there were encouraging orders and shipments signals, although the jobs reading was very weak and price pressures intensified.

The ZEW survey of 320 or so German analysts and economists fell to a new record low at –63.9 in July, adding weight to our view that the European Central Bank won’t by tightening monetary policy again this year.

UK CPI jumped 0.5 ppts to 3.8% yr, on its way to 4+% later this year, as now widely expected by us, the Bank of England and markets. The core rate also ticked a little higher to 1.6%, but remains well below the 2% target for the headline rate.

The Bank of Canada left rates on hold at 3.0%. The statement maintained the neutral bias of the June statement, citing “significant upside and downside risks to the Bank’s base-case projection”.

Outlook

We continue to like NZD/USD lower multi week especially on a TWI basis. However, yesterday’s stronger than expected CPI release should hold off further rate cut expectations for now, hence the NZD is likely to range trade ahead of next week’s RBNZ meeting.

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Published on  Wed, Jul 16 2008, 06:56 GMT