Market Brief
The JPY was poised for a fourth monthly gain versus the USD, the longest winning streak in more than 18 months, as concerns the global economic recovery is faltering boost demand for JPY and was also set to complete monthly advances against all of its 16 major counterparts before data this week forecast to show US jobs fell and after a New Zealand finance company filed for receivership. Japan’s retail sales advanced 3.9% (exp. 3.5%) from a year earlier for a seventh month as a hotter-than-usual summer spurred shopping and signs of an easing job slump emerged. Gains in the JPY were tempered after Japan’s Noda said today the government is ready to take “bold” action on currencies if necessary and reiterated that currency movements have been one-sided and that he is watching the foreign-exchange market with great interest.
The EURCHF fell to a record as Asian stocks slid, curbing demand for higher-yielding assets. The USDJPY fell to 84.28 and has weakened 2.5% since July 31, EURJPY declined to 106.59, EURUSD traded at 1.2651, EURCHF dropped to a record 1.2934 and USDCHF was at 1.0239 after crashing to 1.0221 on Friday, the weakest since Jan. 15. US employers probably cut 100,000 jobs after a reduction of 131,000 in the previous month, and jobless rate probably rose to 9.6% from 9.5% according to reports due on Friday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.5% and the Nikkei 225 slumped 3% today while the S&P 500 Index slid 1.5% yesterday after a smaller-than-forecast gain in personal incomes added to concern the economic rebound may slow.
The NZD dropped for a second day on renewed concerns that slowing growth may hamper prospects for successive interest-rate increases in New Zealand and home-building permits rose 3.1% (prev. 3.3%) slower than last month. The NZDUSD declined to 0.7022 and NZDJPY slid to 59.13. Australia’s current-account deficit narrowed to the least since 2002 and retail sales and building approvals rebounded, signaling the economy is strengthening even as recoveries in Japan and the US show signs of faltering. The deficit narrowed to $5.05 billion in Q1, retail sales rose 0.7% last month, the biggest increase in four months, and building approvals gained 2.3%, the first increase since March with the AUDUSD trading at 0.8936. The figures also support the RBA’s prediction that the economy will accelerate as China’s demand for raw materials and energy stokes a record mining boom that has driven unemployment to almost half the level of the US. Australian GDP probably advanced 0.9% QoQ in Q2 (prev. 0.5%) and expanded 2.8% YoY according to reports due tomorrow.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 8824.06 | - 3.55 |
| Hang Seng Index | 20513.05 | - 1.08 |
| Shanghai Index | 2629.28 | - 0.88 |
| FTSE futures | 5207.00 | 0.00 |
| DAX futures | 5917.50 | - 0.63 |
| DJIA futures | 9954.00 | - 0.25 |
| S&P future | 1042.10 | - 0.29 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 1234.10 | - 0.23 |
| Silver | 18.90 | - 0.62 |
| Crude wti | 73.72 | - 1.31 |
| VIX | 27.21 | + 11.29 |
| USD Index | 83.21 | + 0.05 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| German Unemployment Change | -20K/7.6% | -20K/7.6% | EUR/0755 |
| Mortgage Approvals | 46.5K | 47.6K | GBP/0830 |
| M4 Money Supply (MoM)/(YoY) | - | 0.4%/2.3% | GBP/0830 |
| EU CPI Estimate (YoY) | 1.6% | 1.7% | EUR/0900 |
| EU Unemployment Rate | 10% | 10% | EUR/0900 |
| GDP (MoM)/(YoY) | 0.2%/2.5% | 0.1%/6.1% | CAD/1230 |
| S&P/CS Composite-20 (YoY) | 3.5% | 4.61% | USD/1300 |
| Chicago Purchasing Manager | 57 | 62.3 | USD/1345 |
| Consumer Confidence | 50.7 | 50.4 | USD/1400 |
| Minutes of FOMC Meeting | - | - | USD/1800 |
Currency Tech
EURUSD
R 2: 1.3000
R 1: 1.2880
CURRENT: 1.2645
S 1: 1.2500
S 2: 1.2330
USDJPY
R 2: 87.10
R 1: 85.30
CURRENT: 84.20
S 1: 83.60
S 2: 82.00
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.5750
R 1: 1.5560
CURRENT: 1.5427
S 1: 1.5350
S 2: 1.5225
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9200
R 1: 0.9070
CURRENT: 0.8912
S 1: 0.8810
S 2: 0.8725
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S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
