Market Brief
Regional Asian equity markets opened up firmer today, setting the stage for a further rally in risk correlated trades. The USD and JPY were put on the back foot, as risk appetite continued to roll on. However signs of declining upwards momentum can clearly be seen in the EURUSD as the pair failed to break above 1.4300, despite last weeks strong surge in equity and oil prices. In addition, from a technical standpoint, many of the majors are showing overbought conditions and recent CFTC statistics are sending warning signals, as EUR positions have nearly doubled over the last week (highest level since March 2008). Commodity currencies including AUDUSD and NZDUSD are approaching their 2009 highs, which are 0.8265 and 0.6630 respectively. Gold prices remained range bound, after surging from $937oz to $955oz last week. The consolidation was attributed to both technical levels and fundamental views –traders eyed shifts in the dollar’s strength and equity markets for direction as renewed optimism prompted spurts of outflows in the dollar, keeping gold in check at the current level. From a fundamental standpoint, this week looks to be risk bullish as US data is expect to come in at consensus or slightly higher, while underperforming corporate earnings should have a muted effect in the markets. Today, markets will be watching Eurozone’s M3. Also, the BoE publishes its Asset Purchase Facility Quarterly Report and, in the US, the new home sales data will be released. Also today will also usher in the first US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue (planned by former Treasury Secretary Paulson). Markets will be listening intently for any comments on the USD and China's desire for an alternate global reserve currency.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 10,088.66 | 1.44 |
| Hang Seng Index | 20,213.50 | 1.15 |
| Shanghai Index | 3,435.21 | 1.85 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 4,598.24 | 0.26 |
| DAX Index | 5,272.92 | 0.83 |
| SMI Index | 5,769.52 | 0.15 |
| DJIA futures | 9,079.00 | 0.23 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 954.98 | 0.38 |
| Silver | 14.01 | 0.71 |
| VIX | 23.09 | -1.45 |
| Crude wti | 68.59 | 0.79 |
| USD Index | 78.63 | -0.15 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| BoE publishes Asset Purchase Facility Quarterly Re | -- | -- | GBP / 08.30 |
| M3, % y/y (3mma) Jun | 3.5 | 3.7 (4.5) | EUR / 08.00 |
| Private sector loans, % y/y Jun | -- | 1.8 | EUR / 08.00 |
| NBH interest rate announcement, % | -- | 9.50% | HUF / 12.00 |
| New home sales, thous. saar Jun | 354 | 342 | USD / 14.00 |
| Town hall meeting with Fed Chairman | -- | -- | USD / 22.00 |
| Trade balance NZD bn nsa Jun | 0.215 | 0.858 | NZD / 22.45 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8260
R 1: 0.8250
CURRENT: 0.8212
S 1: 0.8090
S 2: 0.7925
EURJPY
R 2: 136.90
R 1: 135.60
CURRENT: 135.45
S 1: 132.10
S 2: 131.60
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1225
R 1: 1.1010
CURRENT: 1.0842
S 1: 1.0785
S 2: 1.0550
USDMXN
R 2: 13.645
R 1: 13.415
CURRENT: 13.1825
S 1: 13.145
S 2: 13.060
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
