Market Brief
FX markets remain in an uninspired range, despite Asian equities trading higher and risk appetite seemly well entrenched. The EURUSD traded between1.4198-1.4248 and the USDJPY between 93.50-94.30. However, most USD pairs are heading towards interesting technical crossroads (see daily tech report), which could provide some opportunities. Yesterday's UK June MPC minutes showed a dovish BoE. The key takeaway was the insight that the committee viewed the current level of asset purchases to be adequate and would need clear evidence to justify expansion. This report dampened speculation that expansion of the asset purchases would happen in August and was deemed GBP positive. Today, New Zealand Finance Minister English stated that New Zealand needs a weaker NZD to support export growth. However, despite the comment, the NZDUSD failed to cooperate pushing to new yearly highs at 0.6630. the USDCAD headed lower, as the BoC pulled back on physical intervention, retail sales beat expectations and oil broke above $65. A break of the 1.0910 horizontal support could lead to significant downside. For today we expect initial jobless claims in the US to have increased by 580 k, well above the consensus of 557k, which should benefit the USD. In addition, more corporate earning reports are on the docket, but with forecasts revised very low the probability of underperformance is low and therefore the numbers should be risk appetite supportive.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,792.94 | 0.71 |
| Hang Seng Index | 19,821.61 | 2.97 |
| Shanghai Index | 3,328.49 | 0.96 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 4,495.15 | 0.03 |
| DAX Index | 5,122.79 | 0.24 |
| SMI Index | 5,673.25 | 0.64 |
| DJIA futures | 8,868.68 | 0.39 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 954.15 | 0.29 |
| Silver | 13.82 | 0.87 |
| VIX | 23.47 | -1.67 |
| Crude wti | 65.47 | 0.1 |
| USD Index | 78.7 | -0.06 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Jun | 0.5 (2.3) | -0.7, -1.7 | GBP / 08.30 |
| BBA mortgage approvals, K Jun | -- | 31.2 | GBP / 08.30 |
| BBA net mortgage lending, £ bn Jun | -- | 2.3 | GBP / 08.30 |
| BBA net consumer credit, £ bn Jun | -- | -0.1 | GBP / 08.30 |
| Initial jobless claims, thous (4wk mvg avg) 18-Jul | 565 (568) | 522 (584) | USD / 12.30 |
| Existing home sales, mn saar Jun | 4.8 | 4.77 | USD / 14.00 |
| Core CPI, % 2w/2w Jul | 0.17 | 0.15 | MXN / 14.00 |
| Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report is released | -- | -- | CAD / 14.30 |
| Index of all industry activity May | 0.9 | 2.6 | JPY / 23.50 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8265
R 1: 0.8235
CURRENT: 0.8197
S 1: 0.8090
S 2: 0.7927
EURJPY
R 2: 136.90
R 1: 134.80
CURRENT: 134.31
S 1: 132.10
S 2: 131.60
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1350
R 1: 1.1225
CURRENT: 1.0999
S 1: 1.0930
S 2: 1.0785
USDMXN
R 2: 13.645
R 1: 13.415
CURRENT: 13.206
S 1: 13.185
S 2: 13.060
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
