Market Brief
The Usd was generally stable in the Asian session. The EurUsd traded between 1.3576 and 1.3660, while the Jpy continues to be the primary recipient of swings in risk appetite. UsdJpy traded through the 95.78 resistance down to 94.95. The EurChf continues to consolidate about the 1.5000 level (despite Chf strength against the Usd) as SNB Roth's verbal intervention has kept the sellers sidelined. SNB's Jordan once again warned that the SNB does want any further Swiss franc appreciation against the euro and is decisively implementing the currency intervention policy. Only a surge in equity markets today would stop the markets from end the week lower, for the first time in nine weeks. The data flow coming out has been rather less supportive, but nonetheless investors were not too interested in a strong reality check in any form. Data continued to drive sentiment lower weak guidance on Q2 Japan machinery orders and soft NZ retail sales data today follow a potential turn in the US jobless claims trend yesterday. While in European session Germany reported a -3.8% contraction in Q1 GDP, worse than the -2.2% contraction in Q1. Declines in risk sentiment have been controlled and appetite managed to stage a minor recovery. Major Asian stock indices overnight were also firm, though major FX pairs generally traded in very tight ranges. Gold managed to continue its recent rally after knee jerk reaction to weak employment data out of the US . The spark of risk aversion that granted the dollar a boost early in the session dissipated as the day continued, based on better than expected corporate earnings from several major corporations (CA, etc.). Gold can hold a strong position between 875 and 950 as the flight to quality story provides a source of buyers, while inflation expectations grant gold the momentum needed to trade close to the historical highs. RSI was fairly stable with some choppiness in the signal line, but the general buying and selling signals are apparent. We saw a strong rally when the RSI dipped below 30, as technical Traders found this as an entry point to go long, consistent with our support and resistance levels.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,265.02 | + 1.88 |
| Hang Seng Index | 16,790.70 | + 1.50 |
| Shanghai Index | 2,645.26 | + 0.20 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 4,380.72 | + 0.41 |
| DAX Index | 4,735.82 | - 0.05 |
| SMI Index | 5,371.11 | + 0.20 |
| DJIA futures | 8,371.11 | + 0.20 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 926.35 | - 0.01 |
| Silver | 14.06 | - 0.01 |
| VIX | 31.37 | - 6.77 |
| Crude wti | 58.81 | + 0.32 |
| USD Index | 82.51 | + 0.28 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| GDP (Q1 Prov.) q/q(y/y) | -2.0%,-4.1 | -1.6%,-1.5 | EUR / 9.00 |
| CPI (Apr Final) EU Harm. | 0.4%, 0.6% | 0.6% | EUR / 9.00 |
| Core CPI (Apr) | 0.2%, 1.6% | 0.7%, 1.5 | EUR / 9.00 |
| Consumer Prices (Apr) | 0.0%,-0.6% | -0.1%,-0.4 | USD / 12.30 |
| Core Consumer Prices (Apr) | 0.1%, 1.8 | 0.2%, 1.8 | USD / 12.30 |
| Empire State Manufacturing Index (May) | -12.0 | -14.7 | USD / 12.30 |
| Net Foreign Purchase US Securities (Mar) | -- | -$97.0bn | USD / 13.00 |
| Industrial Production (Apr) | -0.6% | -1.5% | USD / 13.15 |
| Univ. of Michigan Cons. Conf. Index (May Prov.) | 67.0 | 65.1 | USD / 13.55 |
| Banxico Interest Rate Announcement | 5.25% | 6.00% | MXN / 14.00 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8520
R 2: 0.8095
R 1: 0.7738
CURRENT: 0.7566
S 1: 0.7460
S 2: 0.7338
S 3: 0.7233
EURJPY
R 3: 134.80
R 2: 133.60
R 1: 132.40
CURRENT: 129.42
S 1: 128.87
S 2: 126.63
S 3: 124.40
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4880
R 2: 1.4803
R 1: 1.4745
CURRENT: 1.4667
S 1: 1.4500
S 2: 1.4446
S 3: 1.4270
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
