Market Brief
Yesterday marked yet another step out of the lugubrious climate we have tentatively tried to escape from in the attempt to find a bottom to the global economic crisis. ADP Figures out of the U.S which “is a measure of nonfarm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents… roughly 24million employees”. Markets were expecting a -645K decline, however the -491K number was a welcomed surprise. The good news didn’t stop there, the Aussie jobs reports stunned markets actually rising by 27.3K and beating expectations for a -25K decline.
The Aussie dollar stepped over a crucial level at 0.7486 (which is the 38.20% retracement level on the move down from last year’s July high at 0.9850). Is the Aussie set to rise to 0.7941 (50% retracement on the same move)? Given that the AUD and NZD are now prone to carry trades.
The EURUSD traded a very volatile session as markets await the results of the U.S Treasuries’ stress test results they conducted on the 19 largest banks in the country. Early signs point to 10 banks needing recapitalization but Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner assured markets that none of the 19 banks were at risk of insolvency. Expect the dollar to strengthen amidst the good news. Another crucial headline today is the ECB and BoE meetings, both central banks will have to elaborate on the effectiveness of their QE. Furthermore the ECB will probably announce some sort of non-conventional means to address the economic climate in Europe, a move pundits say is long overdue as the bank has been laggard to respond to the global crisis.
Japanese stocks rose 4.55% this morning on the encouraging jobs news out of the U.S and Australia. Markets in Asia in general have been on good footing with Hong Kong up 1.8% - which is preempts the European and U.S Sessions.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 9385.7 | 4.55 |
| Hang Seng Index | 17138 | 1.81 |
| Shanghai Index | 2597.5 | 0.19 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 4430 | 1.35 |
| DAX Index | 4934.5 | 0.91 |
| DJIA futures | 8468 | -0.04 |
| Nasdaq futures | 1421.5 | -0.58 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 912.77 | 0.17 |
| Silver | 13.865 | 0.98 |
| VIX | 32.45 | -2.73 |
| Crude wti | 56.65 | 0.55 |
| USD Index | 84.19 | 0.47 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| BoE Rate decision | 0.50% | 0.50% | GBP / 11:00 |
| ECB Rate decision | 1.00% | 1.25% | EUR / 11:45 |
| Non-Farm productivity | 0.60% | -0.40% | USD / 12:30 |
| Initial Jobless Claims | 635K | 631K | USD / 12:30 |
| Stress Test Results | - | - | USD / 21:00 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7738
R 2: 0.7560
R 1: 0.7479
CURRENT: 0.7415
S 1: 0.7300
S 2: 0.7233
S 3: 0.7049
EURJPY
R 3: 135.57
R 2: 134.33
R 1: 132.88
CURRENT: 131.02
S 1: 128.93
S 2: 126.63
S 3: 124.39
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5090
R 2: 1.4979
R 1: 1.4882
CURRENT: 1.4758
S 1: 1.4675
S 2: 1.4501
S 3: 1.4446
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
