Market Brief
The Usd was stronger in tbe Asian session, as the focus on the US bank stress test results intensified. The EurUsd traded down to 1.3247 from 1.3320, while the UsdJpy fell to 97.95 from 98.97..Yen's crosses were sold off after the newswires suggested a large US bank would need additional capital. The AUDJPY went through 72.50 and the EURJPY is trading down to the low of 130.20 lvl. Despite good economic data and inspired comments from the Fed, risky assets are still slightly weaker. US equity markets softened, with the Dow down by 0.2% to 8410.7 while Asian indexes are gnerally higher. Although the official results are not expected until May 7th, the Fed informed the 19 banks undergoing stress tests of their results yesterday. Newswires reports suggest that BofA will need an additional $34bn of capital, which would be the largest requirement of all 19 banks tested. The current market expectation is that a large share of the capital raising would come from converting preferred shares into common equity and the WSJ reports that most banks would not have to tap the remaining TARP funds. In addition yesterday, Fed's Bernanke testified to the Joint Economic Committee and provided an optimistic outlook, saying "We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year". However, he added "An important caveat is that our forecast assumes continuing gradual repair of the financial system; a relapse in financial conditions would be a significant drag on economic activity and could cause the incipient recovery to stall." Ahead today, the ADP employment for April will provide the market a rough guide on what to expect for the non-farm payrolls report on Friday.
In Australia, in seasonally adjusted terms, retail sales surged 2.2% higher in March. This was well ahead of market expectations (+0.5%), which suggest that the government’s second emergency stimulus package has gained traction in the retail sector. Other government data on Wednesday showed the country's trade surplus increased 43% in March, again well above expectations, as exports remained remarkably resilient while imports fell again.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,977.37 | 1.68 |
| Hang Seng Index | 16,745.75 | 1.92 |
| Shanghai Index | 2,592.52 | 0.98 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 4,332.36 | -0.1 |
| DAX Index | 4,843.45 | -0.19 |
| SMI Index | 5,262.97 | -0.34 |
| DJIA futures | 8,334.00 | 0.14 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 902.35 | 0.58 |
| Silver | 13.43 | 0.67 |
| VIX | 33.36 | -3.38 |
| Crude wti | 54.19 | 0.65 |
| USD Index | 84.13 | -0.03 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| Services PMI, index Apr | 46 | 45.5 | GBP / 8.28 |
| ECB Board Member Tumpel-Gugerell speaks | -- | -- | EUR / 9.30 |
| Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Mar | 0.1,-2.6 | -0.6,-4.0 | EUR / 9.00 |
| Norges bank interest rate announcement, % May | -- | -- | NOR / 12.00 |
| ADP payrolls (chg, k) Apr | -645 | -742 | USD / 12.15 |
| Ivey PMI Apr | 40.5 | 43.2 | CAD / 14.00 |
| FRB of Minneapolis President Stern (FOMC non-voter | -- | -- | USD / 13.30 |
| SNB Chairman Roth speaks | -- | -- | CHF / 16.15 |
| FRB of San Francisco President Yellen (FOMC voter) | -- | -- | USD / 21.30 |
| Unemployment rate % Q1 | 5.3 | 4.6 | NZD / 22.45 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7738
R 2: 0.7560
R 1: 0.7479
CURRENT: 0.7415
S 1: 0.7300
S 2: 0.7233
S 3: 0.7049
EURJPY
R 3: 135.57
R 2: 134.33
R 1: 132.88
CURRENT: 131.02
S 1: 128.93
S 2: 126.63
S 3: 124.39
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5090
R 2: 1.4979
R 1: 1.4882
CURRENT: 1.4758
S 1: 1.4675
S 2: 1.4501
S 3: 1.4446
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
