Market Brief
The Usd was stronger in the Asian session, as swine flu concerns continue to damage risk appetite. The EurUsd traded lower to 1.3126 from 1.2989, while the UsdJpy dropped to 95.80 from 96.89. With 149 confirmed deaths in Mexico, the Peso has came under heavy selling pressure, losing another 2.5% against the Usd. The AudUsd broke the important support at 0.7050 on the back of weaker commodity prices, leaving some room to the downside. Yesterday, the World Health Organization raised the pandemic alert to phase 4, which is described by, "verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza virus able to cause "community-level outbreaks," as cases were reported in the US, Canada, UK, Spain, Australia and New Zealand. US equity markets closed lower with the S&P down by 1.00% and Asian equity markets have closed in the red. Markets have yet to fully react to the swine flu story and we caution traders from getting too caught up in the media hype. With the SARs virus in 2003 reaction in the G10, fx markets is difficult to measure and at most only had a short term impact on risk aversion or growth prospects. Interestingly, Gold prices are well off Monday’s high ($918.88oz), which suggests that risk aversion is based more on macro trading themes than a reactionto the swine flu. In this current environment we are bullish on the Jpy and Usd. While the EurChf is now at post intervention levels (1.5048), and the focus now turns to how the SNB will respond.
In Japan, March retail sales fell y/y -3.9% vs. 4.9% exp. According to the Wall Street Journal, US Regulators have told BofA. and Citigroup that the banks may need to raise more capital based on early results of the government's so-called stress tests of lenders. In the European session, markets will be watching CBI distributive trends survey which is expected to rebound modestly. And in the US, the Case-Shiller 20-City index is expected to fall, despite the recent stabilization in housing activity
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,493.77 | -2.66 |
| Hang Seng Index | 14,577.25 | -1.77 |
| Shanghai Index | 2,401.44 | -0.16 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 4,114.06 | -1.27 |
| DAX Index | 4,614.38 | -1.67 |
| SMI Index | 5,089.43 | -1.67 |
| DJIA futures | 7,893.00 | -1.36 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 898.07 | -0.93 |
| Silver | 12.72 | -1.51 |
| VIX | 38.32 | 4.07 |
| Crude wti | 48.99 | -2.29 |
| USD Index | 85.73 | 0.04 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| CBI Distributive Trades (Apr) | -40 | -44 | GBP / 10.00 |
| Case-Shiller 20-City House Price Index (Feb) | -18.70% | -19.00% | USD / 13.00 |
| Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Apr) | 29.5 | 26 | USD / 14.00 |
| ECB’s Bini Smaghi on monetary policy | -- | -- | EUR / 16.30 |
| Trade balance NZDbn nsa Mar | 0.225 | 0.489 | NZD / 22.45 |
| GfK consumer confidence, index | -28 | -30 | GBP / 23.01 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7355
R 2: 0.7328
R 1: 0.7250
CURRENT: 0.7010
S 1: 0.6955
S 2: 0.6855
S 3: 0.6770
EURJPY
R 3: 131.45
R 2: 129.70
R 1: 128.90
CURRENT: 124.86
S 1: 122.14
S 2: 121.75
S 3: 119.39
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5189
R 2: 1.5135
R 1: 1.5090
CURRENT:
S 1: 1.4900
S 2: 1.4845
S 3: 1.4805
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
