Market Brief
The Usd was weaker in the Asian session, despite some weak data, mixed earnings reports and the impeding release of the US government’s stress test. The EurUsd traded up to 1.3190 from 1..3041, while the UsdJpy traded down to 96.64 from 98.00. The divergence in primary risk aversion trade benefactors, just adds to the cloudiness surrounding the current environment. The Cad continued to appreciate after the BoC outlined a framework for unconventional policies, trading to 1.2210 against the Usd. The Sterling was under pressure as the Daily Telegraph reported that both Moody's and S&P are reviewing the the UK 's AAA sovereign credit rating in light of the budget.. The weaker Gbp traded to 1.4609 and 0.9020 against the Usd and Eur respectively. Yesterday, US Equities managed to close higher yesterday, after ranging in the red for most of the day. Asia's regional indexes closed generally lower, but European have opened on a positive footing. Given the importance of today's stress test result, and our negative bias, we are suspect of the recent revival in risk appetite.
In the European session, the markets will be watching German Ifo index and UK retail sales. In the IFO index, markets are looking for a minor gain to 82.3 from 82.1 previously, in line with the slight gains in economic sentiment seen over the past few weeks. And in the UK we expect retail sales to remain sluggish as high street spending growth remains weak.
The highlight of the trading day will be the US government releasing the preliminary results from the government stress tests. Markets are expecting the disclosures to include the methodology, which will undoubted by picked apart by the market. The full results are expected to be release May 4th but how exactly they will be disseminated is still being hotly debated. Although banks have be able to outperform earnings expectations, provisions for credit losses have increased and the economic outlook remains challenging.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,707.99 | - 1.57 |
| Hang Seng Index | 15,258.85 | + 0.29 |
| Shanghai Index | 2,448.60 | - 0.63 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 4,069.79 | + 1.28 |
| DAX Index | 4,598.30 | + 1.32 |
| SMI Index | 5,064.29 | + 0.80 |
| DJIA futures | 7,914.00 | - 0.01 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 911.23 | - 0.02 |
| Silver | 12.80 | + 0.15 |
| VIX | 37.15 | - 2.49 |
| Crude wti | 49.87 | + 0.50 |
| USD Index | 84.85 | - 0.78 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| IFO business climate, index | 82.3 | 82.1 | EUR / 8.00 |
| IFO current assessment, index Apr | 82.2 | 82.7 | EUR / 8.00 |
| IFO business expectations, index Apr | 82.6 | 81.6 | EUR / 8.00 |
| GDP - preliminary estimate, % q/q (y/y) Q1 | -1.5,-3.8 | -1.6,-2.0 | GBP / 8.30 |
| Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Mar | -0.5 | -1.9,0.4) | GBP / 8.30 |
| Durable goods new orders, % m/m (y/y) Mar | -1.4,-24.7 | 3.5,-23.8 | US / 12.30 |
| New home sales, thous. saar Mar | 340 | 337 | US / 14.00 |
| Retail sales, % (y/y) Feb | -- | -4.6 | MXN / 19.30 |
| IMF and World Bank Spring meeting | -- | -- | 25th - 26th |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7355
R 2: 0.7329
R 1: 0.7250
CURRENT: 0.7186
S 1: 0.7030
S 2: 0.7000
S 3: 0.6955
EURJPY
R 3: 132.00
R 2: 131.45
R 1: 129.70
CURRENT: 128.76
S 1: 126.10
S 2: 125.45
S 3: 122.10
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5188
R 2: 1.5135
R 1: 1.5090
CURRENT: 1.4909
S 1: 1.4904
S 2: 1.4805
S 3: 1.4705
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
