Market Brief
The sentiment surrounding Japan is mixed at the moment as the Government aligns itself with the BoJ’s pre-stimulus forecast of -2.0% (negative) growth. The Government cut from a previously optimistic forecast at 0% for fiscal 2009. That said, the easing in export declines come as a welcomed sign that we may be seeing some recovery in Asia. Reports say that exports to China had only dropped 31.5% in March (YoY) as opposed to 39.7% and 45.2% drops in Febuarary and January respectively.
China’s Stimulus package has helped factories re-tool and resume normal operations which has the whole region burgeoning. The term “green shoots” which has been used pervasively in past days is a welcomed analogy but calling a bottom still seems premature. An economic researcher in Singapore rightly pointed out that “The recent rally was a bit over-optimistic as economic conditions are still poor, but there are people who missed the run up and are now waiting to buy on the dip”.
In the US consternation around the GM Debacle continues – The auto giant saying that it’s June deadline for debt payment would be difficulty met – many feel that a bankruptcy filing is imminent. This further heightens risk sentiment as the U.S prepares for the May 4th results of the 19 banks’ stress tests.
EURUSD rises however we feel this is a technical retracement and maintain a short on the pair while Strong resistance can be seen at 1.4600 on GBPUSD. Gold’s overnight bear run failed at $889/oz before it pushed higher – now trading at $894/oz.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 8847.01 | + 1.37 |
| Hang Seng Index | 15012.21 | + 0.90 |
| Shanghai Index | 2449.86 | - 0.47 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 4028.55 | - 0.02 |
| DAX Index | 4566.98 | - 0.58 |
| Nasdaq futures | 1335.5 | + 0.91 |
| DJIA futures | 2214 | + 2.08 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 891.8 | + 0.23 |
| Silver | 12.38 | + 0.65 |
| VIX | 38.1 | + 2.59 |
| Crude wti | 48.62 | - 0.47 |
| USD Index | 86.122 | - 0.08 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| EURO Zone PMI | 34.7 | 33.9 | EUR / 08:00 |
| SNB Hildebrand speaks | - | - | CHF / 09:00 |
| Initial Jobless Claims | 640K | 610K | USD / 12:30 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7327
R 2: 0.7250
R 1: 0.7095
CURRENT: 0.7079
S 1: 0.7066
S 2: 0.7034
S 3: 0.6955
EURJPY
R 3: 131.45
R 2: 129.69
R 1: 128.00
CURRENT: 127.95
S 1: 127.48
S 2: 126.82
S 3: 125.45
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5258
R 2: 1.5189
R 1: 1.5069
CURRENT: 1.5038
S 1: 1.5005
S 2: 1.4952
S 3: 1.4905
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
