Market Brief
The Usd was stronger in the Asian session, as uncertainty surrounding the US banks stress test weighed on risk appetite. The EurUsd traded down from 1.3075 to 1.2967, while the UsdJpy traded from 99.42 to 98.64. Until the results from the 19 banks are released on May 4th, the Usd will continue to re-assert its safe-haven credentials. Carry trades also suffered, with the GbpJpy trading lower to 144.89 from 147.09, as pressure is building on the Sterling due to the whopping budget expected Wednesday. Commodities continue to trend lower with Gold and Copper both trading on important horizontal support. Asian equity markets closed higher and European indexes are also performing well. US Q1 earnings season began last week on a positive note, specifically in financials (Well Fargo, GS and JP Morgan). Despite the improved sentiment, several divergent comments from ECB members on the probability of a rate cut and possible new non-standard measures on May 7th weighed on the Euro. In an Interview with the Nikkei newspaper, ECB president Trichet stated that a decision on non-standard monetary policy measures will be taken on May 7th. In addition, he hinted future cuts in the refi rate will be measured, implying that a 25bp cut to 1.00% could be as low as the ECB goes.
In Australia, producer price index unexpectedly fell to -0.4% m/m against expectations of a 0.6% m/m increase. The data could inform a further easing of inflationary pressures as CPI data due on Wednesday is already likely to show a reduction in inflation to 2.8% y/y from 3.7% y/y previously. Waning inflation will give the RBA more room to maneuver in setting the RBA’s cash target.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,924.75 | 0.19 |
| Hang Seng Index | 15,765.28 | 1.05 |
| Shanghai Index | 2,557.46 | 2.13 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 4,108.34 | 0.38 |
| DAX Index | 4,663.19 | -0.29 |
| SMI Index | 5,207.69 | 0.29 |
| DJIA futures | 8,053.00 | -0.38 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 868.31 | -0.05 |
| Silver | 11.92 | 0.29 |
| VIX | 33.94 | -5.16 |
| Crude wti | 49.71 | -1.23 |
| USD Index | 86.17 | 0.22 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| NBH interest rate announcement, % 21-Apr | 9.5 | 9.5 | HUF / 12.00 |
| FRB of Chicago President Evans (FOMC voter) gives | -- | -- | USD / 13.00 |
| Leading indicators, % (y/y) | -0.2,-3.6 | -0.4,-3.6 | USD / 14.00 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7738
R 2: 0.7355
R 1: 0.7328
CURRENT: 0.7151
S 1: 0.7139
S 2: 0.7035
S 3: 0.6975
EURJPY
R 3: 134.35
R 2: 132.02
R 1: 131.45
CURRENT: 128.64
S 1: 126.40
S 2: 125.45
S 3: 122.15
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5363
R 2: 1.5260
R 1: 1.5188
CURRENT: 1.5069
S 1: 1.4950
S 2: 1.4905
S 3: 1.4805
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
