Market Brief
The Usd was stronger in Asian session as confidence continue to deterorate. EurUsd traded from 1.3303 to 1.3220 while UsdJpy traded from 99.14 to 98.15. Equity markets weakened as negative sentiment gathered momentum, with the S&P 500 giving up 2% and the Nikkei losing over 1%. US retail sales fell 1.1% m/m in March, following an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in Feb. Yesterday in the US retail sales data served as a reminder that downside risk in the US data are still highly probable and that markets are too optimistic on risky assets. Several bearish newspaper articles added to the growing pessimism. S&P is reportedly estimating that a 3rd of all junk bonds in the UK and Eurozone could default according to a UK Telegraph peice.
The WSJ is reporting that major US banks and mortgage lenders are ramping up foreclosures on US home owners. Both President Obama & Fed Chairman Bernanke were optimistic however in their speeches yesterday. Bernanke said that "Recently we have seen tentative signs that the sharp decline in economic activity may be slowing, for example, in data on home sales, homebuilding, and consumer spending, including sales of new motor vehicles." However with the Fed delaying the release of the banks stress test results there is some crediability at stake and worries of what the results show.
In Japan, Industrial production numbers for February were confirmed at -38.4% y/y, while capacity utilisation was slightly better than the earlier estimate, coming in at -11.9% m/m.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,742.96 | -1.12 |
| Hang Seng Index | 15,256.15 | -2.08 |
| Shanghai Index | 2,510.43 | -0.66 |
| FTSE futures | 3,923.00 | -0.16 |
| DAX futures | 4,553.00 | 1.34 |
| SMI Futures | 5,045.00 | 0.49 |
| DJIA futures | 7,837.00 | -0.59 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 892.28 | -0.23 |
| Silver | 12.76 | -0.07 |
| VIX | 37.67 | -0.37 |
| Crude wti | 49.3 | -0.22 |
| USD Index | 84.83 | 0.22 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| Retail sales constant, % y/y Feb | -- | 1.7 | ZAR / 8.30 |
| CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar | 0.1 (0.0) | 0.4 (0.2) | USD / 12.30 |
| Core CPI, % m/m (y/y) | 0.1 (1.7) | 0.2 (1.8) | USD / 12.30 |
| NSA CPI, index Mar | -- | -38.23 | USD / 12.30 |
| Empire manufacturing, index Apr | -35 | -38.23 | USD / 12.30 |
| Net foreign security purchases (TICs), $ bn Feb | -- | -43 | USD / 13.00 |
| Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) Mar | -0.9,-12.3 | -1.5,-11.8 | USD / 13.15 |
| Industrial production: mfg, % m/m (y/y)Mar | -- | -0.7,-13.7 | USD / 13.15 |
| Capacity utilisation, % Mar | 69.7 | 70.2 | USD / 13.15 |
| NAHB housing market indexApr | 10 | 9 | USD / 17.00 |
| Fed Beige Book publisheD | -- | -- | USD / 18.00 |
| BRC retail sales monitor, total sales, % y/y Mar | -- | 0.1 | GBP / 23.01 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7817
R 2: 0.7738
R 1: 0.7355
CURRENT: 0.7169
S 1: 0.7034
S 2: 0.6976
S 3: 0.6857
EURJPY
R 3: 137.41
R 2: 135.57
R 1: 134.33
CURRENT: 130.41
S 1: 129.87
S 2: 128.24
S 3: 126.42
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5361
R 2: 1.5258
R 1: 1.5188
CURRENT: 1.5042
S 1: 1.4904
S 2: 1.4805
S 3: 1.4706
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
