Market Brief
The Usd was slightly stronger in the Asian session, due to the speculation the global economy will not rebound as rapidly as originally expected. The growing optimism that recent economic data was pointing to stabilization has been tempered by recent releases, causing a return of risk aversion. The EurUsd traded down from 1.3393 to 1.3308, while the UsdJpy traded from 100.43 to 99.62. Investors searched for safer assets in the Usd and Jpy, selling high yielding currencies such as commodity and EM currencies (however, interesting enough commodity currencies have been less affected by changes in risk appetite). The EurJpy traded down to 132.58 from 134.32, as safe haven trades came back into play and Eur remains heavy due to expectations of another rate cut and some level of unconventional easing. The announcement by GS of better than expected earnings improved sentiment slightly, but the market seems to have its reservations. In the week ahead, markets will be watching corporate earning, specifically in the banking sector. Recent changes to accounting laws to thin down mark-to-market accounting rules will provide some splashy headlines. We caution traders not to get too excited over manipulated earnings. UK and Europe have a light week in term of economic data, but the US has a slew of first tier data releases Thailand social unrest made from some weekend color and should give traders a pause in buying Asian currencies. The prospect of similar events in other Asian countries, driven by deteriorating economic conditions, will keep these currencies volatile ( UsdThb traded up to 35.71, then down to 35.34). In Singapore, the MAS announced, a much expected, downward re-centring of the SGD policy band, while keeping a neutral policy stance and maintaining the width of the band. Asian regional equity indexes are currently higher and European futures are point to a mixed open (US futures are lower). Overall, we expect markets to stay volatile and FX trading to be defined by fluctuation risk appetite (with little direction).
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,842.68 | - 0.91 |
| Hang Seng Index | 15,481.87 | + 3.89 |
| Shanghai Index | 2,527.18 | + 0.53 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 3,989.57 | + 0.14 |
| DAX Index | 4,481.34 | - 0.21 |
| SMI Index | 5,102.70 | + 0.63 |
| DJIA futures | 7,959.00 | - 0.45 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 897.20 | + 0.37 |
| Silver | 12.72 | - 0.15 |
| VIX | 37.81 | + 3.50 |
| Crude wti | 49.12 | - 1.85 |
| USD Index | 84.87 | + 0.27 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| PPI, % m/m (y/y)Mar | -0.1,-2.1 | 0.1, -1.3 | US / 12.30 |
| Core PPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar | 0.1 (4.0) | 0.2 (4.0) | US / 12.30 |
| Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Mar | 0.3 (-8.5) | -0.1,-8.6 | US / 12.30 |
| Retail sales ex autos, % m/m (y/y) Mar |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7817
R 2: 0.7738
R 1: 0.7355
CURRENT: 0.7257
S 1: 0.7170
S 2: 0.7034
S 3: 0.6976
EURJPY
R 3: 138.57
R 2: 137.41
R 1: 135.57
CURRENT: 132.26
S 1: 130.32
S 2: 129.87
S 3: 128.24
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5443
R 2: 1.5361
R 1: 1.5258
CURRENT: 1.5042
S 1: 1.4904
S 2: 1.4805
S 3: 1.4706
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
