Market Brief
The Usd was stronger in the Asian session, as risk appetite declined across the board. The EurUsd fell from 1.3292 to 1.3148, while the UsdJpy traded down from 100.87 to 99.47. EM and Carry trades also came under selling pressure, with the UsdSgd trading up to 1.5220 and the AudJpy traded down to 70.05. The greenback continues to recover as risk aversion takes over. Asia’s regional indexes followed yesterday's US markets lower, with the Hang Seng falling -4.22%. Gold continues to rally on investors fears rising, to $888.98oz. The erosion in optimism stems from weaker than expected Q1 earnings from Alcoa, which triggered concerns by investors about the upcoming earnings season. In addition, measures implemented by Ireland yesterday (set-up of a bad bank supported by €80 to €90bn to buy toxic assets) had traders reducing positions in risky assets and weighed on the Euro. A trend we expect will continue today.
In figures released overnight, UK Nationwide consumer confidence registered a surprise decline to 41, below lasts month's 43 and expectations of a rebound to 45. Despite some signs of stabilization in the domestic economy and the BoE's new aggressive policies, it seems that the weak labour market is hurting sentiment in general, as the outlook in the labor markets continues to decline, consumer demand should remain soft near term.
In Japan, the Economy Watchers Survey household DI, jumped to 30.0 in March. The 50 level is still a significant distance away but the improvement was substantial and the level is the highest since July last year. In addition, data released overnight showed a slight improvement in the current account as the trade balance move back into a surplus of JPY 202.1bn, vs. JPY -844.4bn previously.
In Australia, the consumer confidence surged in April to 92.7 up 7.1 points from March levels, extending it postive indicators for Australia 's economy over its peers within the G10. Improving household cashflows and better management of debt has help the consumer, especially as housing prices have managed to start trending upwards again after a tought period.
The Bank of Thailand cut the 1-day repo rate by 25 bp to 1.25%.. The market was expecting a larger move of 50 bp.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,595.01 | -2.63 |
| Hang Seng Index | 14,298.96 | -4.22 |
| Shanghai Index | 2,347.39 | -3.74 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 3,930.52 | -1.57 |
| DAX Index | 4,322.50 | -0.62 |
| SMI Index | 4,974.20 | -0.57 |
| DJIA futures | 7,670.00 | -1.18 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 888.2 | 0.67 |
| Silver | 12.29 | 0.16 |
| VIX | 40.39 | -1.31 |
| Crude wti | 48.04 | -2.25 |
| USD Index | 85.59 | 0.35 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| BRC shop price index, % y/y Mar | -- | 1.9 | UK / 9.30 |
| New manufacturing orders, % m/m (y/y) Feb | -3 | -8.0,-35.2 | GE / 10.00 |
| Wholesale inventories, % m/m (y/y) Feb | -0.5,-0.6 | -0.9 (0.8) | US / 14.00 |
| Minutes from FOMC meeting of March 17-18 published | -- | -- | US / 18.00 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7355
R 2: 0.7268
R 1: 0.7229
CURRENT: 0.7044
S 1: 0.6976
S 2: 0.6857
S 3: 0.6771
EURJPY
R 3: 138.57
R 2: 137.41
R 1: 135.57
CURRENT: 131.45
S 1: 130.32
S 2: 129.87
S 3: 128.24
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5443
R 2: 1.5361
R 1: 1.5258
CURRENT: 1.5171
S 1: 1.5054
S 2: 1.4973
S 3: 1.4904
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
