Market Brief
The Usd was stronger in the Asian session, as concerns over the US auto sector weighed on risk sentiment. The EurUsd traded down from 1.3260 to 1.3167, while the UsdJpy bounced around the 99.25 – 98.25 levels. The AudNzd jumped from 1.2200 to 1.2435 as comments from RBNZ Governor Bollard, that the recent sell off in New Zealand rates was excessive, had markets reconsidering the AUD-NZD interest rate differential. Equity markets have come under renewed selling pressure, as reports surfaced suggesting that the Obama administration considers a pre-packaged bankruptcy as the best solution for a major US car makers. Asian currencies are likely to be on the defensive as risk aversion rises following the news that the world's second largest US car manufacturer may be broken up with a large part to be made bankrupt. The implications on the financial sector linked to the manufacturer's finance arm could hurt banks. Asian regional indexes closed mixed while European markets are now trading lower. Crude prices dropped below the $50bll threshold for the first time in two weeks. Markets are increasingly becoming focused on the G20 and ECB meetings. Both poise enormous event risks. With the markets lulled into believing that Europe and the US are too ideologically far apart to reach any meaningful accord, even the slightest agreement will have considerable effect. In respect to the ECB meeting, uncertainty sorrounds whether the ECB will or will not adopt unorthodox monetary policy measures (and if so what type).
In Japan the BoJ Tankan came in worse than expected with a decline in business conditions at -58 vs. -55 exp, -24 prior. Prime Minister Aso announced a new stimulus package yesterday, which will likely run for 3 years, would be well over 2% of Japan 's GDP.
In the European session markets will be focused on the Eurozone Unemployment, which is expected to continue rising at a staggering pace. For the US session ADP survey for March will capture the markets' attention. Traders are becoming increasingly reliant on this data as an indicator for NFA (Friday). However we still see an exaggeration above or below NFP with no recognizable pattern.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,351.91 | + 2.98 |
| Hang Seng Index | 13,519.54 | - 0.41 |
| Shanghai Index | 2,408.02 | + 1.46 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 3,846.19 | - 2.03 |
| DAX Index | 4,004.15 | - 1.97 |
| SMI Index | 4,843.78 | - 1.69 |
| DJIA futures | 7,468.00 | - 1.24 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 918.65 | - 0.05 |
| Silver | 12.90 | - 0.54 |
| VIX | 44.14 | - 3.07 |
| Crude wti | 48.35 | - 2.63 |
| USD Index | 85.80 | + 0.43 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| Manufacturing PMI (Mar Final) | 34.0 | 34.0p | EZ / 7.58 |
| CIPS/Markit report on Manufacturing (Mar) | 35.0 | 34.7 | UK / 8.30 |
| BoE Housing Equity Withdrawal (Q4) | -£6.8bn | -£5.7bn | UK / 8.30 |
| Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 8.3% | 8.2% | EZ / 9.00 |
| ADP Change in Employment (Mar) | -663K | -697K | US / 12.15 |
| ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar) | 36.0 | 35.8 | US / 14.00 |
| Pending Home Sales Index (Feb) | 0.0% | -7.7% | US / 14.00 |
| Construction Spending (Feb) | -2.0% | -3.3% | US / 14.00 |
| NBP Rate Announcement | 3.75% | 4.00% | PLN / -- |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7142
R 2: 0.7094
R 1: 0.6966
CURRENT: 0.6897
S 1: 0.6771
S 2: 0.6724
S 3: 0.6566
EURJPY
R 3: 136.39
R 2: 134.51
R 1: 133.92
CURRENT: 130.20
S 1: 128.24
S 2: 126.41
S 3: 125.44
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5528
R 2: 1.5443
R 1: 1.5361
CURRENT: 1.5223
S 1: 1.5130
S 2: 1.5028
S 3: 1.4904
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
