Market Brief
The Usd was stable in theAsian session, as the deterioration in sentiment took a slight pause. News from Japan were balanced, as Unemployment data printed lower. However, Prime Minister Taro Aso announced a new stimulus package, which helped offset the bad data and stabilize equity markets. The EurUsd traded from 1.3190 to 1.3294, while the UsdJpy traded from 97.37 to 98.50. The weak Jpy helped carry trades regain recent losses with GbpJpy trading up to 141.12. Asian regional indexes are slightly lower with Nikkei leading losers -1.53%. However, European indexes are currently trading higher. With Fortis reporting a whopping Q1 loss (and more earning from the financial sectors to come) and concerns lingering around the US automakers, we would expect equities to stay soft. Looking ahead, the final outcome of the G20 meeting, the ECB rate announcement & press conference on Thursday, and labor data on Friday will define risk sentiment (ie FX direction).
In Japan, Unemployment deteriorated to 4.4% vs. 4.3% exp., while the jobs-applicants ratio slipped to 0.59x from 0.67x (lowest level since March 2003). In addition, consumption is still weak as real household spending fell 3.5% y/y in February, following a 5.9% decline in January. The real concern is that the outlook for unemployment looks dim, as the lagging indicator to manufacturing capacity utilization by 3 months is on a downward slope. We continue to look for opportunities to sell the Jpy.
In today’s trading the latest flash Euro-zone CPI release is expected to show that headline inflation dropped to a record low in March. And in the US session, we have reservation that the recent surge in equity prices will be enough to lift consumer confidence from February’s record low of 25.0 especially given the rapid and continued deterioration in the job market.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,109.53 | - 1.53 |
| Hang Seng Index | 13,500.91 | + 0.33 |
| Shanghai Index | 2,373.21 | + 0.64 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 3,829.50 | + 1.77 |
| DAX Index | 4,018.12 | + 0.72 |
| SMI Index | 4,819.98 | + 1.56 |
| DJIA futures | 7,540.00 | + 0.80 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 920.76 | + 0.53 |
| Silver | 13.14 | + 0.75 |
| VIX | 45.54 | + 10.96 |
| Crude wti | 48.95 | + 1.11 |
| USD Index | 85.52 | - 0.40 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| CPI (Mar Prov.) | 0.7% | 0.4%,1.2% | EZ / 9.00 |
| GDP (jan) | -0.7 | -1.0 | CA / 12:30 |
| Case-Shiller 20-City House Price Index (Jan) | -18.6% | -2.5,-18.6 | US / 14.00 |
| Chicago PMI (Mar) | 34.4 | 34.2 | US / 13.45 |
| Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Index (Mar) | 28.0 | 25.0 | US / 14.00 |
| Tankan Large Manufacturers (Q1) | -55 | -24 | JP / 23.50 |
| Tankan Large Manuf. Outlook (Q1) | -52 | -36 | JP / 23.50 |
| Tankan Large all Industry CAPEX for 09 | -- | -12 | JP / 23.50 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7140
R 2: 0.7095
R 1: 0.6938
CURRENT: 0.6890
S 1: 0.6770
S 2: 0.6724
S 3: 0.6566
EURJPY
R 3: 134.50
R 2: 133.92
R 1: 130.65
CURRENT: 130.63
S 1: 126.40
S 2: 125.45
S 3: 122.12
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5528
R 2: 1.5443
R 1: 1.5360
CURRENT: 1.5199
S 1: 1.5030
S 2: 1.4905
S 3: 1.4805
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
