Market Brief
The Usd was mixed in the Asian session, as improving risk appetite boosted the appeal of diversifying out of the greenback. The EurUsd trader higher to 1.3592 from 1.3525, while the UsdJpy pulled back from recent gains, trading lower to 97.72 from 98.80. Commodity currencies and Carry trades slipped slightly, with the NzdUsd trading down to 0.5741 and the GbpJpy dropped sharply to 141.25. Wall Street closed higher, with the S&P up 2.33%, However, Asian equity markets are running out of steam with the Hang Seng currently -0.73%. Crude prices eased slightly down to $53.69bll and Gold was marginally higher. Recent economic data has been supportive of the rally in risk appetite, illustrated through equity prices (S&P 500 is on track for its best month since 1987), which, in turn, should be Usd negative. There is a growing choir of analysts who are predicting a turn in the global economy. While the data is compelling, we are cautions followers. While we will not stand in the way of market activity, false bottoms often contain groups of positive data. However, the downward trend remains intact. We do not expect the dollar to weaken dramatically, as investors will still turn to the greenback due to the underlying economic picture and the time necessary to implement the various government credit programs, particularly the Public-Private Investment Program. Investors are still wary of the credit programs as they look for signs that credit is indeed improving.
In the US session personal spending figures for February are expected to show that sales were decent considering all the downward pressure. While he U. Michigan measure of consumer confidence might be revised up due in part to the recent bounce in equity markets. Today with a light economic calendar and the tight correlation between Usd and Equity markets intact, traders will be focused on activity in the stock markets.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,626.97 | - 0.18 |
| Hang Seng Index | 14,006.02 | - 0.43 |
| Shanghai Index | 2,374.44 | + 0.53 |
| FTSE futures | 3,873.00 | + 0.57 |
| DAX futures | 4,269.00 | - 0.08 |
| SMI Futures | 4,911.00 | + 0.06 |
| DJIA futures | 7,825.00 | - 0.30 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 933.50 | - 0.06 |
| Silver | 13.52 | + 0.02 |
| VIX | 40.36 | - 4.47 |
| Crude wti | 53.85 | - 0.90 |
| USD Index | 83.81 | - 0.41 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| Retail sales, % m/m Feb | -0.4 | 1.3,2.2y | SW / 8:30 |
| M3, % y/y (3mma) Feb | 5.6 (6.3) | 5.9 (7.0) | EZ / 9:00 |
| Private sector loans, % y/y Feb | -- | 5.0 | EZ / 9:00 |
| GDP - final, % q/q Q4 | -1.5,-1.9 | -1.5,-1.9 | UK / 9:30 |
| KoF leading indicator | -1.48 | -1.41 | SZ / 10:30 |
| Personal income, % m/m Feb | -0.1 | 0.4,1.9 | US / 12:30 |
| Personal spending, % m/m Feb | 0.2 | 0.6,-1.0 | US / 12:30 |
| Core PCE price index, % m/m Feb | 0.1,1.6 | 0.1,1.6 | US / 12:30 |
| PCE price index, % m/m Feb | -- | 0.2,0.6 | US / 12:30 |
| U. Michigan consumer sentiment, index Mar-f | 56.3 | 56.3 | US / 13:55 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7269
R 2: 0.7142
R 1: 0.7095
CURRENT: 0.6976
S 1: 0.6851
S 2: 0.6724
S 3: 0.6567
EURJPY
R 3: 138.57
R 2: 136.40
R 1: 134.50
CURRENT: 132.65
S 1: 130.79
S 2: 130.00
S 3: 129.02
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5360
R 2: 1.5212
R 1: 1.5173
CURRENT: 1.5070
S 1: 1.5036
S 2: 1.4905
S 3: 1.4805
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
