Market Brief
The Hangseng traded 1.78% higher, the Nikkei 0.65% higher as encouraging durable goods and new homes sales in the U.S gave global markets a much needed boost. The developments of the last week have had investors and onlookers dazzled at the rate of reform by global governments. Treasury secretary Geithner announced a crucial public-private sector partnership to rid financial institutions of toxic assets this week. This announcement coupled with the AIG debacle and massive quantative easing by global economies has seen currencies moving in every which way.
Yesterday saw the EURUSD consolidate its large early week moves. A misinterpretation of Treasury secretary Geithner’s response to a journalist question regarding PBOC governor Zhou’s comments sent the dollar tumbling momentarily before rallying back once more details were given. The governor’s suggestion in a nutshell; is to debase the greenback from it’s current position as the global reserve currency – putting the IMF’s SDR (Special drawing rights) forward. These erratic moves and the simple fact that China is expressing discomfort with the Obama administration’s efforts to stabilize it’s domestic economy at quite literally “any cost” would suggest risk aversion is still not to be discounted as a main theme to current market dynamics.
That said noticeable improvements in economic data from the U.S, Europe and Asia has some saying we may be at a market bottom. The Chinese housing sector is set to out perform expectations as inner-city prices have dropped 15 - 40%, while demand continues to rise is an encouraging sign of renewed confidence. The EURUSD is currently trading a right range as we await Q4 GDP and initial jobless claims (March) today. The USDJPY has shown similar price action, with an inverse head and shoulders supporting the dollar bulls if confirmed. Looking forward, G20 meeting on April 2nd will be the focus as we lead into next week, how will China’s growing economic influence affect the issues discussed?
Commodities are showing signs of unrest, Gold had a very volatile session yesterday, rising as much as 2% to $940/oz levels before settling down around $933/oz. While risk aversion may have subsided demand for the commodity is still strong, we see underlying bull trend returning. Crude Oil future fell yesterday from their 4-month highs to just below $53/bbl as U.S Crude inventories rose more than expected on slumping demand. However with winter waning in the northern hemisphere talk of 3-figure crude prices before year-end have begun.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 8535.53 | + 0.66 |
| Hang Seng Index | 13864.7 | + 1.78 |
| Shanghai Index | 2295.14 | + 0.16 |
| FTSE futures | 3851 | - 0.38 |
| DAX futures | 4235.5 | + 0.69 |
| DJIA futures | 7721 | + 0.53 |
| Nasdaq futures | 1242.5 | + 0.73 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 933.16 | - 0.09 |
| Silver | 13.45 | - 0.24 |
| VIX | 42.25 | - 1.58 |
| Crude wti | 53.25 | + 0.91 |
| USD Index | 83.79 | - 0.02 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | -0.4% | 0.7% | GBP / 09:30 |
| GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) | 6.3% | 7.0% | GBP / 09:30 |
| US GDP Q4 | -6.6% | -6.2% | USD / 12:30 |
| US personal consumption | -4.4% | -4.3% | USD / 12:30 |
| US Geithner testifies to house | - | - | USD / 14:00 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7051
R 2: 0.7022
R 1: 0.6998
CURRENT: 0.6989
S 1: 0.6980
S 2: 0.6964
S 3: 0.6930
EURJPY
R 3: 134.51
R 2: 133.08
R 1: 132.79
CURRENT: 132.66
S 1: 132.62
S 2: 132.36
S 3: 131.79
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5170
R 2: 1.5153
R 1: 1.5112
CURRENT: 1.5101
S 1: 1.5078
S 2: 1.5059
S 3: 1.5040
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
