Market Brief
The Usd traded sideway in the Asian session, as the recent surge in risk appetite seems to be on unsteady ground. The EurUsd traded between 1.3537 - 1.3432, while the UsdJpy between 98.35 – 97.35. Yen fueled carry trades paired back recent gains, with the GbpJpy trading lower to 142.77 from 144.71. Wall Street saw a late session sell-off with the Dow closing down -1.49% and Asian regional equity indexes are currently trading lower. Gold sold-off trading from $931.75oz to $924.95oz. While there has been no singular event which has undermined confidence, a series of small events have eroded optimism. We expect the Usd to gain throughout the day as equity market pull back recent gains and risk aversion become the dominant theme.
PBOC Governor Zhou yesterday called for a new Super Currency to replace the role of the US dollar as reserve currency. Zhou stated that the current economic crisis "calls for creative reform of the existing international monetary system towards an international reserve currency with a stable value, rule-based issuance and manageable supply, so as to achieve the objective of safeguarding global economic and financial stability." We imagine China wishes there was some other reserve asset that China could buy other than the greenback, however we doubt the calls will gain much traction. The developed nations will not look positively on issuing another currency and by default picking up additional exchange rate risk.
In Japan, Exports continue to fall across a wide range of sectors. The Japanese economy is clearly being dragged down by the global weakening. Perhaps most disturbing is that exports bound for China continue to sink.
Today, the market will be watching German IFO confidence index, CBI Distribution Trade Survey, Norge Bank & NBP Rate Announcements and US Durable Goods.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,479.99 | - 0.08 |
| Hang Seng Index | 13,622.11 | - 2.07 |
| Shanghai Index | 2,291.56 | - 2.00 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 3,921.50 | + 0.25 |
| DAX Index | 4,196.55 | + 0.21 |
| SMI Index | 4,944.22 | + 0.41 |
| DJIA futures | 7,662.00 | + 0.55 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 926.00 | + 0.01 |
| Silver | 13.36 | - 0.72 |
| VIX | 42.93 | - 0.69 |
| Crude wti | 53.07 | - 1.68 |
| USD Index | 84.33 | + 0.56 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| Unemployment rate AKU, % (sa) Jan | -- | 3.0 | NOR / 9:00 |
| IFO current assessment, index Mar | 82.5 | 84.3 | GE / 9:00 |
| IFO business climate, index Mar | 82.2 | 82.6 | GE / 9:00 |
| IFO business expectations, index Mar | 81.8 | 80.9 | GE / 9:00 |
| CPI (all items), % y/y Feb | 8.2 | 8.1 | ZAR / 9:30 |
| CBI distributive trades, reported sales Mar | -30 | -25 | UK / 11:00 |
| Durable goods new orders, % m/m (y/y) Feb | -2.0 | -4.5 | US / 12:30 |
| Norges bank Monetary Policy Report | -- | -- | NOR / 13:001 |
| Norges bank interest rate announcement, % Mar | 2.00 | 2.50 | NOR / 13:00 |
| New home sales, thous. Saar Feb | 300 | 309 | US / 14:00 |
| FRB of Cleveland President Pianalto speaks on "For | -- | -- | US / 16:20 |
| FRB of San Francisco President Yellen speaks on "T | -- | -- | US / 17:00 |
| Current account balance, NZD bn (nsa) Q4 | -- | -5.994 | NZ / 21:45 |
| CSPI, % y/y Feb | -2.5 | -2.2 | JP / 23:50 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7268
R 2: 0.7142
R 1: 0.7094
CURRENT: 0.6922
S 1: 0.6852
S 2: 0.6724
S 3: 0.6567
EURJPY
R 3: 138.57
R 2: 136.39
R 1: 134.51
CURRENT: 131. 04
S 1: 130.00
S 2: 129.02
S 3: 127.95
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5441
R 2: 1.5361
R 1: 1.5212
CURRENT: 1.5147
S 1: 1.5036
S 2: 1.4904
S 3: 1.4805
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
