Market Brief
The Usd was unchanged in the Asian session, as the slight decline in risk appetite failed to convert in to Usd strength. The EurUsd traded in a range of 1.2955-1.3035 and the UsdJpy traded between 98.09-98.86. Wall Street closed lower, but this bear market rally seems to be enjoying growing confidence, as the choirs of “we are seeing a bottom” have increased. Asian regional indexes are enjoying another strong showing, with the Nikkei up more than 3% and US stock futures are pointing to a higher open. With Investors confidence increasing, risk seeking trading will continue keeping the Usd on the defensive with the primary beneficially to be the Euro.
Noted from a FT interview, SNBs Roth stated the central bank had illustrated its commitment to defend against deflation. He said the SNB had a clear strategy in dealing with misaligned FX pricing and would respond accordingly, should the EurChf test pre-intervention levels. And finally, Roth stated this was not a "beggar-thy-neighbor" policy and it would be foolish for governments to use currency to gain a competitive advantage.
The RBA minutes to the March meeting were released this morning and the RBA indicated the there were strong arguments with supporting data for both cutting and keeping rates on hold. In addition, the minutes noted that it would take a while for fiscal and monetary policy to take effect. In our mind, the open ended minutes, combined with the weak economic data expected near term, make us believe the RBA will cut again by 25bp in the coming months. The Aud should stay firm as risk sentiment improves and China’s economic engine begins to heat up.
Today brings important indicators in German ZEW survey and US housing starts and building permits.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 7,949.13 | 3.18 |
| Hang Seng Index | 12,878.09 | -0.76 |
| Shanghai Index | 2,328.58 | 3.02 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 3,830.94 | -0.8 |
| DAX Index | 4,009.41 | -0.81 |
| CAC 40 Index | 2,755.04 | -1.37 |
| DJIA futures | 7,192.00 | 0.14 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 922.3 | 0.03 |
| Silver | 12.94 | 0.39 |
| Crude wti | 47 | -0.74 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| ZEW Survey | -6.5 | -5.8 | GE / 10:00 |
| Housing Starts | 0.450m | 0.466m | US / 12.30 |
| PPI m/m, y/y | 0.4, 0.1% | 0.8%,-1,3% | US / 12:30 |
| Factory Shipments | -5.50% | -8.00% | CA / 12:30 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6850
R 2: 0.6799
R1: 0.6643
CURRENT: 0.6586
S 1: 0.6513
S 2: 0.6402
S 3: 0.6307
EURJPY
R 3: 130.92
R 2: 129.69
R 1: 128.55
CURRENT: 128.25
S 1: 125.45
S 2: 122.13
S 3: 121.75
USDSGD
R1.5653
R1.5594
R1.5528
CURRENT: 1.5334
S1.5252
S1.5130
S1.5036
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
