Market Brief
The Usd was weaker in the Asian session, a general optimism in equities carried over into FX. The EurUsd traded higher from 1.2870 to 1.2958, while the UsdJpy bounced around the 97.20 to 98.00 level before breaking to the upside towards 98.35. The S&P closed over 4% yesterday, while the Nikkei is currently 5.15% higher. The swing in market sentiment can be clearly traced back to the Citibank report earlier in the week. Crude prices have stabilized around the $46.00bll figure and Gold has trended higher, as the short term break of $900oz was unsustainable. Us Trsy fell slightly in Asia as the safe-haven appeal of debt was hampered by a surge in equity markets. Markets are still digesting the SNB decisions to buy outright foreign currency in order the halt the appreciation of the Chf against the Eur. In addition, the SNB also lowered the target range for 3m Libor by 25bp, to 0.25%. Developments in the currency market have become a critical part of the SNB assessment and traders should understand the commitment of the central bank to increase Chf liquidity and put a floor under the EurChf. Rhetoric surrounding this weekend's G20 meeting is clearly heating up. On the back of a string of weak economic data, the Japanese Finance Minister stated that the downturn in Q1 GDP would be “severe” and agreeing on a collective measure to support the global economic should be a core focus at the meeting. However, several European leaders have suggested that enough fiscal stimulus has been planned and addition spending is not needed.
Japanese January industrial production dropped -10.2% m/m & -31.0% y/y, slightly worse than expectation. These new figures combined with yesterday's GDP data, clearly illustrates that the export-driven Japanese economy is feeling significant pressure from the collapse in global demand.
Today's light economic calendar will have traders focused on equity markets, buzz from the G20 and trading infront of this weekend's meeting.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 7,569.28 | + 5.15 |
| Hang Seng Index | 12,525.80 | + 4.36 |
| Shanghai Index | 2,128.85 | - 0.23 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 3,769.21 | + 1.54 |
| DAX Index | 4,012.81 | + 3.20 |
| SMI Index | 4,758.44 | + 2.42 |
| DJIA futures | 7,218.00 | + 0.69 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 921.00 | - 0.60 |
| Silver | 12.96 | - 0.23 |
| VIX | 41.18 | - 5.57 |
| Crude wti | 46.46 | - 1.12 |
| USD Index | 87.35 | - 0.35 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| Labour costs, y/y | -- | 4.0 | EZ / 10:00 |
| Retail sales, % m/m | 0.2,-2.1Y | -0.3,-2.1Y | EZ / 10:00 |
| Net change in employment, thous Feb | -50 | -129 | CA / 11:00 |
| Unemployment rate, % feb | 7.4 | 7.2 | CA / 11:00 |
| Trade balance, $ bn Jan | -38.2 | -39.9 | US / 12:30 |
| Import prices, % m/m Feb | -0.8,-13.4 | -1.1,-12.5 | US / 12:30 |
| Non-petroleum import prices, % m/m Feb | -- | 0.8,-0.6Y | US / 12:30 |
| Michigan consumer sentiment, index Mar-P | 56.3 | 56.3 | US / 13.55 |
| G20 Finance Ministers meet in London | -- | -- | Global / weekend |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6850
R 2. 0.6799
R 1: 0.6643
CURRENT: 0.6587
S 1: 0.6402
S 2: 0.6307
S 3: 0.6280
EURJPY
R 3: 129.70
R 2: 128.55
R 1: 127.64
CURRENT: 127.37
S 1: 121.75
S 2: 119.39
S 3: 119.10
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5655
R 2: 1.5594
R 1: 1.5415
CURRENT: 1.5429
S 1: 1.5252
S 2: 1.5130
S 3: 1.5035
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
