Market Brief
The Usd was range bound in the Asian Session, as risk appetite came roaring. The EurUsd traded between 1.2773 and 1.2612, while the UsdJpy traded between 98.93 and 98.28. The EurGbp continued to trend higher to 0.9245. And in EM, pressure on the Mxn eased slightly on the back of renewed risk appetite, gaining around 2.0% against the Usd. However, despite the clear rally in risk, fall out for the Usd has been limited.Yesterday's Wall Street session got a significant boost from Citigroup, which stated it was on track to report its first quarterly profit since 2007. This was perhaps the first good news from the financial sector in a while and traders pushed the sector up roughly 15%. Asian equities are generally positive and European stock market futures are pointing to a higher open. Corporate credit also improved and gold slipped below the psychological $900oz level.
Gold bulls were trampled by a sharp rally in risk sentiment throughout financial markets. A strong pullback in demand for flight to quality assets put considerable pressure on gold prices. Sellers forced the precious metal below previous support leaving the spot price at $895oz. Traditionally, when investors become bullish they dump secure assets like treasuries and gold to reinvest in higher yielding products.
Japan 's machine orders showed further weakness, printing at -3.2% m/m, from -1.7% m/m prior reading. While the data was slightly positive vs expectations, investors are not likely become optimistic on the Japanese economy. This number is just one of a long string of weak economic data highlight the though position Japan is currently in. We are expecting further weakness in the Yen near term.
In Australia, consumer confidence was broadly unchanged in March, retracing just 0.2% to 85.6, to be 3.4% lower over the year. In level terms, sentiment remains well below long run averages. Australia's January home loans came out at +3.5% vs +4.0% consensus, +6.4%.
Inlight of todays light calender, markets will be watching the release of January’s UK trade data which is expected to show the economic situation in the UK is in dire straits. Combined with yesterday Production data, which surprised on the downside, we expect the sterling to trade lower.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 7,376.12 | 4.55 |
| Hang Seng Index | 11,982.80 | 2.46 |
| Shanghai Index | 2,139.03 | -0.9 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 3,715.23 | 4.78 |
| DAX Index | 3,886.98 | 5.28 |
| SMI Index | 4,512.55 | 5.28 |
| DJIA futures | 6,886.00 | -0.01 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 898.8 | 0.07 |
| Silver | 12.64 | 0.07 |
| VIX | 44.37 | -10.68 |
| Crude wti | 45.4 | -0.67 |
| USD Index | 88.76 | -0.19 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| Trade balance, £bn Jan | -7.4 | -7.4 | UK / 9.30 |
| New manufacturing orders, % m/m (y/y) Jan | -2.2 | -6.9,-27.7 | GE / 11:00 |
| Budget balance, $bn Feb | -200 | -175.6 | US / 18:00 |
| real GDP, second preliminary, % q/q saar Q4 | -13.4 | -2.3 | JP / 23:50 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6795
R 2: 0.6643
R 1: 0.6555
CURRENT: 0.6442
S 1: 0.6307
S 2: 0.6280
S 3: 0.6249
EURJPY
R 3: 128.55
R 2: 126.50
R 1: 126.08
CURRENT: 124.90
S 1: 122.38
S 2: 121.75
S 3: 119.08
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5840
R 2: 1.5653
R 1: 1.5594
CURRENT: 1.5400
S 1: 1.5285
S 2: 1.5130
S 3: 1.5035
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
