Market Brief
The Usd was stronger in the Asian session, as the lingering effect of weak macroeconomic data, worrying news from the banking sector (including additional layoffs from HSBC) and no new special CEE fund from the EU, weighed on investor’s sentiment. The EurUsd traded from 1.2645 to 1.2546 session lows, while the UsdJpy traded between 97.70 to 96.62 range. Equity markets were significantly lower for the start of the trading week, with both the Nikkei and Hang Seng currently lower by 4.00%. Perhaps the most distressing economic release last week was the US real GDP, which was revised down to an -6.2% annualized rate from -3.8% and worse than the expected downward revision to -5.4%. The negative sentiment has clearly spread over the markets and should define price action today. The Usd still is the main beneficiary of declining risk appetite and as the markets adjust their growth expectations lower the greenback should remain firm.
Sunday’s EU summit provided no real breakthroughs for the CEE region. In fact, European leaders outright rejected a mass bailout of eastern European countries with German Chancellor Merkel providing the sternest language. With no CEE fund, the EU will continue its case by case approach through IMF lending programs and supplemented by the EU. While this partnership has shown a clear willingness to support the CEE region, a lack of a detailed coordinated response would weigh on investors confidence slightly. In addition, fast tracking euro adoption for certain countries ( Poland ) seems to be of low probability as EU isn’t looking for unorthodox solutions.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 7,280.15 | - 3.80 |
| Hang Seng Index | 12,328.38 | - 3.77 |
| Shanghai Index | 2,093.45 | + 0.50 |
| FTSE futures | 3,807.50 | - 1.98 |
| DAX futures | 3,749.50 | - 2.54 |
| SMI Futures | 4,574.00 | - 2.01 |
| DJIA futures | 6,952.00 | - 1.41 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 953.65 | + 1.19 |
| Silver | 13.30 | + 1.33 |
| VIX | 46.35 | + 3.78 |
| Crude wti | 43.77 | - 2.21 |
| USD Index | 88.52 | + 0.58 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| Manufacturing PMI, index | 34.8 | 34.9 | UK / 9.30 |
| BoE mortgage approvals, K Jan | 32 | 27 | UK / 9.30 |
| Flash" HICP, % y/y Feb | 1.0 y/y | -0.1,1.6 y | EZ / 10.00 |
| GDP, % m/m Dec | -0.6 | -0.7 | CA / 13.30 |
| Personal income, % m/m Jan | -0.3,1.1Y | -0.2,1.4Y | US / 13.30 |
| Personal spending, % m/m Jan | 0.3,-1.2Y | -1.0,-1.1Y | US / 13.30 |
| Core PCE price index, % m/m Jan | 0.1,1.6Y | 0.0,1.7Y | US / 13.00 |
| PCE price index, % m/m Jan | -- | -0.5,0.6Y | US / 13.30 |
| ISM manufacturing, index Feb | 34.0 | 35.6 | US / 15.00 |
| Construction spending, % m/m Jan | 1.5 (-4.4 | -1.4 (-3.6 | US / 15.00 |
Currency Tech
USDJPY
R 3: 100.55
R 2: 99.92
R 1: 99.47
CURRENT: 97.49
S 1: 96.36
S 2: 94.63
S 3: 92.52
EURJPY
R 3: 128.55
R 2: 127.64
R 1: 126.08
CURRENT: 122.64
S 1: 121.96
S 2: 119.08
S 3: 117.91
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5841
R 2: 1.5653
R 1: 1.5594
CURRENT: 1.5535
S 1: 1.5286
S 2: 1.5130
S 3: 1.5043
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
