Market Brief
Markets are still buzzing around two surprise figures in the Eurozone industrial production and US retail sales released yesterday. The Eurozone industrial production figures were simply shocking. Production fell by -2.6% in December, after deteriorating by a downwardly revised -2.2% in November. This decline in industrial production now placed the annualized figure at -12.0% y/y. (cons -8.9% exp.). In addition, with the rapid deterioration in growth and business activity globally, a near term recovery would be a fantasy. Confronted with these dire figures, ECB board members have become increasingly dovish in their rhetoric. US retail sales saw a 1.0% m/m rise and were perhaps the first tentative sign the domestic economy has reached it bottom. However, with weakening labour market, lending being tightened and real household wealth declining, the consumer sector currently doesn't have the muscle to drive a recovery.
In Australia, NAB Business Survey, Q4 Business conditions declined to -16, their lowest level since 1992. Business confidence dropped a whopping 24 pts to -31, a record low. Also, unemployment rate surprised to the upside printing at 4.8% vs. 4.7% exp. Australia's A$42 bn stimulus package, which was rejected yesterday, was passed by the Senate today, after a slight modification. In New Zealand, House sales dropped sharply in January to -8.7% m/m which partly negated December's positive reading 25.9% m/m.
The build-up to to this weekends G7 Finance Ministers and CB Governors meeting should keep FX volatility high as comments by policy makers hit the newswires. We expect this meeting have lots of hype but little impact.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 7,779.40 | + 0.96 |
| Hang Seng Index | 13,544.73 | + 2.39 |
| Shanghai Index | 2,320.79 | + 3.23 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 4,251.36 | + 1.16 |
| DAX Index | 4,463.00 | + 1.61 |
| SMI Index | 5,165.32 | + 1.13 |
| DJIA futures | 7,925.00 | - 0.15 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 937.63 | - 0.96 |
| Silver | 13.42 | - 0.80 |
| VIX | 41.25 | - 7.36 |
| Crude wti | 34.61 | + 1.85 |
| USD Index | 85.86 | - 0.82 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| E16: "Flash" GDP, % q/q Q4 | -1.3 | -0.2,0.6y | EZ / 10.00 |
| ECB Executive Board member Gonzalez-Parámo speaks | -- | -- | EZ / 11.00 |
| Michigan consumer sentiment, index Feb-P | 61.5 | 61.2 | US / 15.00 |
| G7 meeting of Finance Ministers and CB govs | -- | -- | Global |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6849
R 2: 0.6798
R 1: 0.6617
CURRENT: 0.6625
S 1: 0.6432
S 2: 0.6354
S 3: 0.6249
EURJPY
R 3: 125.28
R 2: 122.17
R 1: 120.01
CURRENT: 117.93
S 1: 114.22
S 2: 113.15
S 3: 112.53
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5339
R 2: 1.5258
R 1: 1.5178
CURRENT: 1.5065
S 1: 1.5036
S 2: 1.4935
S 3: 1.4908
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
