Market Brief
The Usd was mixed in the Asian session, as FXmarkets lack conviction before today’s FOMC meeting. The EurUsd tradedhigher from 1.3174 to 1.3316, while the UsdJpy was range bound between88.90 and 89.49. Yesterday, US Equity markets finished higher, with theS&P500 up by 1.1%, while 2-year US Treasury yields rose by 7bp toclose at 0.87bp. European equity markets have opened higher and USfutures are pointing to a positive start. Some positive data releasedyesterday has given the market temporary pause. Yesterdays the RichmondFed Manufacturing Index was slightly better than expected (-49 in Jan)while German IFO surveys beat expectations on current assessment,business climate and expectations. While the negative economic datastill clearly outpaces the positive, markets are now searching forclues to see if the decline in global activity is gradually slowing.However, overall we still expect risk appetite to be under pressure,which should benefit safe haven trades in the Usd, Jpy and Chf.
The highlight of today’s will be the FOMCmeeting, however it will lack the normal speculation/drama surroundingthe rate decision. With Fed funds rate already in a target range of 0%and 0.25%, there is little more for additional easing. While memberscould vote to lower the ceiling, it seems very clear that the Fed hasno intention of doing that. As always, participants will be searchingthrough the accompanying statement for signals of policy action orcomments on views or steps regarding QE.
| Global indexes | Current level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,106.29 | + 0.56 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 4,266.83 | + 1.72 |
| CAC 40 Index | 3,021.17 | + 2.25 |
| DAX Index | 4,431.00 | + 2.48 |
| SMI Index | 5,372.65 | + 0.44 |
| DJIA futures | 8,253.00 | + 1.97 |
| S&P future | 858.80 | + 2.33 |
| World markets | Current level | % Change | |
| Gold | 895.63 | - 0.40 | |
| Silver | 12.11 | + 0.08 | |
| VIX | 42.25 | - 7.52 | |
| Crude wti | 42.00 | + 1.01 | |
| USD Index | 83.85 | - 0.67 |
| Todays calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| Retail sales, % m/m Dec | -0.4 | 0.4 | SW / 8.30 |
| Unemployment rate AKU, % (sa) Nov | 2.8 | 2.7 | NO / 9.00 |
| KoF leading indicator Jan | -0.50 | -0.39 | SW / 10.30 |
| FOMC interest rate announcement, % Jan | 0.0 - .25% | 0.0 - .25% | US / 19.15 |
| RBNZ interest rate announcement, % Jan | 4.00 | 5.00 | NZ / 20.00 |
| Trade balance, NZDbn (nsa) Dec | -- | -0.52 | NZ / 21.45 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7048
R 2: 0.6844
R 1: 0.6718
CURRENT: 0.6684
S 1: 0.6495
S 2: 0.6418
S 3: 0.6291
EURJPY
R 3: 125.28
R 2: 122.17
R 1: 119.45
CURRENT: 118.68
S 1: 116.14
S 2: 113.75
S 3: 112.52
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5336
R 2: 1.5249
R 1: 1.5120
CURRENT: 1.4978
S 1: 1.4924
S 2: 1.4809
S 3: 1.4759
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
