Market Brief
The Usd was stable in the Asian session, as a positive tone has settled across markets on this historical week. The EurUsd traded between 1.3380 to 1.3305, while the UsdJpy traded between 91.30 to 90.35. Our FX risk indicator, the AudJpy, trended higher for most of the Asian session but slipped below 61.00, as Europe prepares to open. The core focus will be on Asset markets and their reaction to UK's government potentially announcing another round of bank bail outs and Obama's inauguration speech on Tuesday. Both events could produce significant optimism and help ease the bearish sentiment, which took hold last week. However, looking past this probable bout of optimism, we still have a gloom outlook and except any correction in FX, safe-haven buying is to be short lived. Asian regional indexes are trading higher and European stock futures are pointing to a higher open. Commodity weakness seems to have carried through the weekend, with crude and gold slightly lower.
The inauguration of President-elect Obama on Tuesday will likely to define the headlines and trading activity for much of this holiday-shortened week. The US consumer is still depressed, despite substantial tax cuts and lower gasoline prices, which boosted real incomes, in 2008. However, the inauguration of President Obama has generated unusual market optimism that, somehow, the new administration will be able to rescue the fragile US economy with a massive stimulus package. While this week we are positioned to trade around the "Obama Bounce", ie selling Usd on growing risk appetite, these trade will be short term and we are expecting a longer term bout of Usd strength.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,256.85 | 0.32 |
| Hang Seng Index | 13,339.99 | 0.63 |
| Shanghai Index | 1,986.67 | 1.64 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 4,248.30 | 2.44 |
| CAC 40 Index | 3,079.47 | 2.07 |
| SMI Index | 5,509.14 | 1.36 |
| DJIA futures | 8,319.00 | 0.92 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 839.45 | -0.43 |
| Silver | 11.22 | -0.46 |
| VIX | 46.11 | -9.58 |
| Crude wti | 36.1 | -1.12 |
| USD Index | 83.88 | -0.39 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| Construction output, % m/m | -- | 0.1,-4.0 y | EZ / 10.00 |
| Tertiary Industry Index, m/m % | -0.8 | 0.4 | JP / 23.50 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7140
R 2: 0.7048
R 1: 0.6840
CURRENT: 0.6768
S 1: 0.6720
S 2: 0.6628
S 3: 0.6539
EURJPY
R 3: 126.50
R 2: 125.28
R 1: 122.17
CURRENT: 120.29
S 1: 117.77
S 2: 115.88
S 3: 114.40
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5069
R 2: 1.4992
R 1: 1.4939
CURRENT: 1.4922
S 1: 1.4805
S 2: 1.4760
S 3: 1.4675
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
