Market Brief
The Usd was stronger in the Asian session, as risk aversion roared back on the first real trading day of 2009. The EurUsd dropped suddenly from 1.3990 to 1.3600, while the UsdJpy spiked off the 91.80 support to 93.00. Early morning demand for USD followed a $310 billion Obama proposal. This saw an Asian central bank buying greenbacks against the Euro. Over the holiday season, global economic data continued to worsen, as Friday's US manufacturing ISM fell to a 28-year low of 32.4. We expect that, in the current environment, risk aversion trades will be dominant, as the participants are skittish in letting any market drops spiral into the losses witnessed in 2008. The rapid pullout from risky assets under duress will support the Usd and we caution traders in putting on risky trades, such as Jpy fueled carrys, which have seen some support in the first few days of trading. Equity markets, both in Asia and Europe, are firmer and US index futures are pointing to a lower opening. Commodities are mixed, with crude slightly higher and precious metals lower on light trading.
European session is on the light on the data side and will have participants watching the US economic numbers. The key data scheduled for release today are November's construction spending and December's vehicle sales. Both numbers are expected to show significant weakness. Friday's December NFP will be the first real test of the US economic condition of 2009 and markets are anticipating a massive -500k decline.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,043.12 | 2.07 |
| Hang Seng Index | 15,563,31 | 3.46 |
| Shanghai Index | 1,880.72 | 3.29 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 4,578.21 | 0.36 |
| CAC 40 Index | 3,357.21 | 0.22 |
| SMI Index | 5,712.78 | 3.22 |
| DJIA futures | 8,950.00 | -0.08 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 863.8 | -1.36 |
| Silver | 11.19 | -3.28 |
| VIX | 39.19 | -2.02 |
| Crude wti | 46.9 | 1.2 |
| USD Index | 82.7 | 1.05 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| Construction PMI, index | -- | 31.8 | UK / 9.30 |
| Total vehicle sales, mn (saar) | 10 | 10.2 | US / PM |
| Construction spending, % m/m | -1.3 ,-5.1 | -1.2 ,-4.6 | US / 15.00 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7355
R 2: 0.7238
R 1: 0.7162
CURRENT: 0.7108
S 1: 0.6920
S 2: 0.6853
S 3: 0.6799
EURJPY
R 3: 130.80
R 2: 129.70
R 1: 128.56
CURRENT: 127.32
S 1: 126.00
S 2: 125.35
S 3: 123.70
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4895
R 2: 1.4807
R 1: 1.4650
CURRENT: 1.4693
S 1: 1.4500
S 2: 1.4340
S 3: 1.4255
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
