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European Session: Risk Sentiment and Gold Come Roaring Back

Wed, Nov 25 2009, 08:34 GMT
by Peter Rosenstreich

ACM - Advanced Currency Markets

Market Brief

Risk appetite came back in a big way during the Asian session, as events in the US session were supportive of long risk positions. The FOMC minutes really contained no surprises, but stayed dovish despite going divergence among members. The minutes also addressed the USD decline, which said that so far the deprecation had been orderly, which the market quickly read into as permission to continue to sell the USD. The economic data yesterday were mixed, with German IFO and US consumer confidence data surprising to the upside while GDP data basically printing inline with expectations. The rally in risk correlated trades saw Spot Gold rise to $1180.00, while EURUSD is now trading slightly above the 1.5000 handle. The GBPUSD jumped nearly a figure in late Asian trading to 1.6668 from 1.6580. Yet, GBPJPY gains were compressed, as JPY fueled carry trade felt the brunt of JPY buying. In Japan, exports grew in October for the third straight month thanks to robust shipments to Asia, illustrating that a sturdy recovery in the region will prop up Japans export-driven economy for the rest of this year. AUDUSD climbed to 0.9267, as construction work done data released this morning surprised the market to the upside rising by 2.2% q/q in Q3 (consensus 0.0%). This economic release helped confirm the RBA's bullish outlook for the economy, which was reiterated by RBA Deputy Governor Battellino this morning and supports our view that the central bank will raise the cash rate by 25bp in December.

For this light calendar, pre-Thanksgiving Day markets will be watching economic data from the US . Today in the US, October’s personal income and spending figures are expected to offer further clues that the pace at which real consumption grew in Q3 is not sustainable. And finally, the latest data core durable goods suggest that the growth rate of orders has already peaked and will falter in the near term.

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9335
R 1: 0.9275
CURRENT: 0.9260
S 1: 0.9110
S 2: 0.9060

USDCAD
R 2: 1.0735
R 1: 1.0645
CURRENT: 1.0571
S 1: 1.0540
S 2: 1.0450

EURJPY
R 2: 134.45
R 1: 133.60
CURRENT: 132.47
S 1: 131.75
S 2: 131.00

USDMXN
R 2: 13.135
R 1: 13.025
CURRENT: 12.873
S 1: 12.855
S 2: 12.795

• S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

Published on  Wed, Nov 25 2009, 11:50 GMT