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Asain Session: China Comments on Reserve System
Fri, Jul 10 2009, 11:25 GMT
by Peter Rosentreich
ACM - Advanced Currency Markets
Market Brief
The wave like pattern in risk appetite is a testament to the lack of constant drivers and summer trading. Yesterday saw a recovery in risky assets and today risk sentiment is on the decline. Asian equity markets closed lower and European markets are red across the board. Commodity and commodity currencies are trending lower with crude prices slipping below $60bll (first time since may) and AUDUSD trading down to 0.7765. As stated yesterday we are carefully monitoring both the EURCHF and USDJPY since both are at levels that will make there respective officials very uncomfortable. In fact, comments by SNB's Roth yesterday suggest that the central bank is still steadfast to its FX intervention strategy and the subsequent spike in EURCHF implies traders are extremely jumpy. The BoE unexpectedly kept its asset purchase program unchanged opting instead to finish current allocation while monitoring economic and credit market indicators. We believe that at the next monetary policy meeting an increase in the QE program is very likely and is setting the stage for a sterling fall. The G8 program ended today with no real fireworks. Chinese representative State Councelor Dai Bingguo provided the only noteworthy comment saying "we should have a better system for reserve currency issuance and regulation so that we can maintain relative stability of major reserve currencies." However these words were caution since it failed to mention the USD by name and failed to register a response in the markets. We expect the USD to continue to rally and with a light calendar and thin trading volumes will keep overall FX trading choppy.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,287.28 | -0.04 |
| Hang Seng Index | 17,706.44 | -0.47 |
| Shanghai Index | 3,113.93 | -0.29 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 4,136.78 | -0.52 |
| DAX Index | 4,611.62 | -0.39 |
| SMI Index | 5,279.84 | -0.48 |
| DJIA futures | 8,101.00 | -0.4 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 910.88 | -0.16 |
| Silver | 12.84 | -0.23 |
| VIX | 29.78 | -4.85 |
| Crude wti | 59.73 | -1.12 |
| USD Index | 80.33 | 0.54 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| Global: G8 meeting to be held in Italy (final day) | -- | -- | -- |
| Producer input prices, % m/m (y/y) Jun | 0.8, -12.3 | 0.4 ,-9.4 | GBP / 08.30 |
| Producer core output prices, % m/m (y/y) Jun | 0.2 (1.1) | 0.2 (1.2) | GBP / 08.30 |
| Producer output prices, % m/m (y/y) Jun | 0.3 (-0.7) | 0.4 (-0.3) | GBP / 08.30 |
| Trade balance, $ bn May | -30 | -29.2 | USD / 12.30 |
| Import prices, % m/m (y/y) Jun | 2.2 ,-18.3 | 1.3,-17.6 | USD / 12.30 |
| Non-petroleum import prices, % m/m (y/y) Jun | -- | 0.2 (-5.8) | USD / 12.30 |
| Michigan consumer sentiment Jul-P | 71 | 70.8 | USD / 13.55 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8155
R 1: 0.8039
CURRENT: 0.7762
S 1: 0.7725
S 2: 0.7630
EURJPY
R 2: 134.80
R 1: 132.80
CURRENT: 128.99
S 1: 126.98
S 2: 124.40
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1815
R 1: 1.1725
CURRENT: 1.1640
S 1: 1.1545
S 2: 1.1420
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
Published on Fri, Jul 10 2009, 11:41 GMT
Archive
- European Session: Waiting on NFP
Published On Fri, Nov 6 2009, 09:55 GMT - European Session: FOMC Signals Low Rates To Continue Contingent On Employment And Inflation
Published On Thu, Nov 5 2009, 08:22 GMT - European Session: All Eyes on the FOMC
Published On Wed, Nov 4 2009, 10:38 GMT - European Session: RBA Hikes Rates Again But Moderates Hawkish Tone
Published On Tue, Nov 3 2009, 08:42 GMT - European Session: CIT Bankruptcy Shakes Risk Appetite...Briefly
Published On Mon, Nov 2 2009, 09:45 GMT
Advanced Currency Markets, S.A.
| 50 Rue du Rhone CH-1204 Geneva
http://www.ac-markets.com | support@ac-markets.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
This report has been prepared by AC Markets and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by AC Markets personnel at any given time. ACM is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.Related reports
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