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Asian Session: ECB Member Dampens QE Expectations

Wed, Apr 29 2009, 08:43 GMT
by Peter Rosentreich

ACM - Advanced Currency Markets  |  View company's profile

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Market Brief

The Usd was weaker in the Asian session, as risk appetite returned as positive economic data and earnings offset concerns regarding swine flu and financial industry. The EurUsd traded up to 1.3215 from 1.3120, while the UsdJpy traded higher to 97.06 from 96.50. Pressure eased off MXN, as the WTO stopped short of declaring a full-blown pandemic and real numbers are not nearly matching the World Bank's "mild" flu pandemic estimates, traded down to 13.80 against the Usd. With the renewed risk taking, the AudUsd reversed off the 0.7000 support and is now driving towards 0.7150 levels. US equity markets closed marginally lower yesterday, as Conference Board consumer confidence index jumped from 26.9 in March to 39.2 and the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey also rose from -20 in March to -9 in April. In addition, GM is reported to have made progress to reduce its debt burden ahead of an end of the month deadline imposed by the government. Asian equity markets are higher ( Japan is closed) and European futures are pointing got a higher open. Overall we believe risk appetite remains fragile in front the US bank stress test results and the ECB meeting, which will benefit the Jpy and Usd.

The Euro was able to make some headway after yesterday's decline as ECB Bini Smaghi commented on potential alternatives to the asset purchase programs adopted by the BoE and the Fed. He discussed options that would increase the size of the ECB's balance sheet by lending to banks at longer maturities against collateral. This indirect QE initially damaged the markets expectations of a full blow ECB QE program. However, we view this, slimmed down alternative, as still bearish for the Euro.

Today's highlight will the release of US Q1 GDP and the FOMC rate decision. We are in line with the market consensus for -4.9% annualized on GDP and for no change in the current Fed Funds target range. The accompanying FOMC statement will be analyzed to see if the economic outlook has altered notably.

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7355
R 2: 0.7327
R 1: 0.7250
CURRENT: 0.7143
S 1: 0.6954
S 2: 0.6857
S 3: 0.6770

EURJPY
R 3: 131.45
R 2: 129.70
R 1: 128.90
CURRENT: 127.43
S 1: 124.40
S 2: 122.13
S 3: 121.75

USDSGD
R 3: 1.5189
R 2: 1.5135
R 1: 1.5090
CURRENT: 1.4938
S 1: 1.4900
S 2: 1.4847
S 3: 1.4805

• S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

Published on  Wed, Apr 29 2009, 10:03 GMT

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