Market Brief
The Usd was stable in the Asian session, as markets wait for the outcome of the the US presidential election. The EurUsd traded in a range from 1.2678 to 1.2526, while the UsdJpy traded between 99.35 and 98.37. AudUsd traded down to 0.6595, as the RBA lowered interest rates by more than expected. Commodities were mixed, with gold only marginally higher at $729.98oz and crude lower at $63.32bll. Credit markets continue to improve, with 3m LIBOR below 3% (2.87%). Yesterday's Wall Street trading lacked conviction and ended slightly lower. Currently, Asian regional indexes are higher, with Nikkei up 6.28%. Europe stock markets are looking to open higher. Today, the US elections will hold the market's attention and we expect trading to be subdued. The last polls have Senator Obama with a defining lead over Senator McCain. However, given the 2004 dramatic and unprecedented expected turnout, uncertainty is high. Potentially more important could the Congressional elections, which would give the Democrats a majority (filibuster blocking) 60 seats and would give them a critical edge in passing legislation.
Yesterday, saw the continued collapse in the ISM manufacturing index to a 26-year low of 38.9, which basically confirmed that the US is now in a severe recession. This reading corresponds to a GDP contracting to 1% annualized pace. In addition, the details were very concerning with new orders, production indexes and employment all falling to levels not witnessed in a generation.
In Australia , the RBA cut rates by 75bp to 5.25% (lowest level in 5-years), which was greater than the 50bp the market expected. This was the third consecutive cut, equaling 200bp in total. The RBA stated that activity is still expected to be softer than expected and that should help inflation decline. Currently, the Bank is moving quickly to a neutral policy which we believe is at 5.00%.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,114.60 | 6.26 |
| Hang Seng Index | 14,384.34 | 0.27 |
| Shanghai Index | 1,706.70 | -0.76 |
| FTSE 100 Index | 4,438.50 | 0.12 |
| DAX Index | 5,029.30 | 0.49 |
| SMI Index | 6,291.89 | 0.93 |
| DJIA futures | 9,389.00 | 0.61 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 726.35 | 0.4 |
| Silver | 9.77 | -0.71 |
| VIX | 53.68 | -10.36 |
| Crude wti | 62.43 | -2.31 |
| USD Index | 86.31 | -0.05 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| US Presidential Election | -- | -- | US / 0.00 |
| Producer Prices (Sep) | -0.1%,+8.0 | -0.5%,+8.5 | EZ / 9.00 |
| Factory Orders (Sep) | -1.00% | -4.00% | US / 14.00 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7065
R 2: 0.6893
R 1: 0.6864
CURRENT: 0.6746
S 1: 0.6551
S 2: 0.6338
S 3: 0.6011
EURJPY
R 3: 131.49
R 2: 131.06
R 1: 128.45
CURRENT: 125.43
S 1:122.25
S 2: 121.42
S 3: 113.64
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5154
R 2: 1.5039
R 1: 1.4919
CURRENT: 1.4775
S 1: 1.4647
S 2: 1.4585
S 3: 1.4554
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
