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Asian Session: Asian Stocks rise on further commodity weakness – markets eye NFP's today

Fri, Dec 5 2008, 11:23 GMT
by Peter Rosentreich

ACM - Advanced Currency Markets

Market Brief

U.S stock markets declined in the closing hours of trading yesterday as continued uncertainty over the “Big-Three” looms over the U.S economy. The Dow ended the day -2.5% while the S&P and NASDAQ ended the day down by 3%. The EURUSD traded a relatively tight 40pip range – between 1.2730 and 1.2770 during Asian trading, markets awaiting this afternoon’s Non-Farm Payrolls as stimulus. Yesterday saw the dollar weaken as the world watched the once mighty U.S automotive industry plead Congress for help – a rescue package that has gone from $25Bn to $34Bn in the two weeks the Big three have convened to prepare detailed Business plans and financial statements.

The Yen continues to be headstrong, advancing against all currencies, low interest rates and unwinding of carry trades continues to drive the Nippon currency to new heights. The currency is now flirting with 91 support line, a level not seen in 13 years. The Aussie and Kiwi had a volatile day yesterday, initially rising against the dollar but eventually capitulating as demand for the currency weakened as policy makers in Australia, New Zealand lowered their benchmark rates – along with the ECB, BoE and Riksbank.

The spotlight is on the NFP’s today as a median forecast of 73 economists predicts a 333’000 decline, only a month after an already impressive 240’000 decline last month. The NFP’s and unemployment rate are due out at 13:30 GMT – volatility could to be expected if the number is even worse than expected, if confirmed the decline would bring unemployment to 6.8% - the highest level in 15 Years.

Crude prices are on all the news wires, the slowing global economy has dampened demand sending crude to a 4 year low of $43.36/bbl. Many analysts believe the state of the global economy and the awareness brought on by the exceptionally high oil prices only a few months ago will continue to weaken demand for the commodity – eyes on $40/bbl in the near term and $25/bbl for the real believers.

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6696
R 2: 0.6618
R 1: 0.6544
CURRENT: 0.6465
S 1: 0.6333
S 2: 0.6232
S 3: 0.6077

EURJPY
R 3: 123.67
R 2: 121.54
R 1: 119.45
CURRENT: 117.69
S 1: 116.43
S 2: 114.41
S 3: 113.64

USDSGD
R 3: 1.5529
R 2: 1.5436
R 1: 1.5345
CURRENT: 1.5180
S 1: 1.5161
S 2: 1.5109
S 3: 1.5052

• S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

Published on  Fri, Dec 5 2008, 12:05 GMT