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Asian Session − Markets Position for an Uncertain Week
Mon, Dec 1 2008, 10:04 GMT
by Peter Rosentreich
ACM - Advanced Currency Markets
Market Brief
The Usd was slightly stronger in the Asian session, as investors positioned themselves for a data heavy week. In the US, Black Friday's initial sales reports were unconvincing (but slightly on the positive side) and data released this week is expected to show continued deterioration. The EurUsd and UsdJpy came under significant selling pressure on Friday and the trend seems to be continuing in Asia. The EurUsd traded down from 1.2721 to 1.2622, while the UsdJpy traded from 95.60 to 95.18. Last week's equity trading was relatively postive and stable, while government yields declined. Asian regional equity indexes are mixed, while European stock futures are pointing to a lower opening. Interestingly, crude prices are lower despite the OPEC meeting, which didn't cut production but will wait till the end of month meeting, illustrating investors fears are directed at the weak demand caused by the global recession, above production/supply concerns.
This week, markets will be focused on the aggressive rate cuts from central banks. Our base scenario is that the cuts will give equities some level of support and, therefore, weaken Usd and Jpy. The big meetings will be Thursday's BoE and ECB policy rate decisions. We are expecting 100bp & 75bp respectively, which is slightly more aggressive than the current market expectations. Earlier in the week, we expect the RBA to cut 100bp and RBNZ a whopping 150bp rate cut. Both should take the market by surprise and weigh on the Aud and Nzd (less so for Aud).
| Global indexes | Current level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,397.22 | -1.35 |
| Hang Seng Index | 14,160.10 | 1.95 |
| Shanghai Index | 1,894.62 | 1.24 |
| FTSE futures | 4,287.00 | 0.83 |
| DAX futures | 4,656.50 | -0.27 |
| SMI Futures | 5,790.00 | -0.43 |
| DJIA futures | 8,741.00 | -0.9 |
| World markets | Current level | % Change |
| Gold | 807.45 | -1.29 |
| Silver | 10.14 | -1.54 |
| VIX | 55.28 | 0.65 |
| Crude wti | 52.72 | -3.14 |
| USD Index | 86.58 | 0.06 |
| Todays calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| BoE Mortgage Approvals (Oct) | 32k | 33k | UK / 8.30 |
| Consumer Credit (Oct) | +£0.5bn | +£0.3bn | UK / 8.30 |
| CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Nov) | 39.7 | 41.5 | UK / 8.30 |
| GDP (Q3 1st Est.) (q/q Ann.) | 0.80% | 0.30% | CA / 12.30 |
| Construction Spending (Oct) | -0.90% | -0.30% | US / 14.00 |
| ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov) | 37.5 | 38.9 | US / 14.00 |
| Fed’s Bernanke Speaks On Economic Outlook | -- | -- | US / 17.30 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6758
R 2. 0.6696
R 1: 0.6618
CURRENT: 0.6447
S 1: 0.6333
S 2: 0.6232
S 3. 0.6077
EURJPY
R 3: 126.24
R 2: 124.63
R 1: 123.67
CURRENT: 120.63
S 1: 119.55
S 2: 116.43
S 3: 113.64
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5436
R 2: 1.5345
R 1: 1.5248
CURRENT: 1.5212
S 1: 15052
S 2: 1.4965
S 3: 1.4875
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
Published on Mon, Dec 1 2008, 10:10 GMT
Archive
- Asian Session: NFP's disappoint as ECB stays put on rates – low volumes today for 4th July holiday
Published On Fri, Jul 3 2009, 09:58 GMT - Asian Snap: China revives the reserve currency debate and pushes for more Forex diversification
Published On Thu, Jul 2 2009, 09:20 GMT - Asian Session: Mixed Tankan only rattles but doesn't shake newfound optimism
Published On Wed, Jul 1 2009, 09:56 GMT - Asian Session: Japanese jobless data inline with expectations
Published On Tue, Jun 30 2009, 10:30 GMT - Asian Session: China and Brazil discuss bypassing the dollar for international trade
Published On Mon, Jun 29 2009, 09:57 GMT
Advanced Currency Markets, S.A.
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http://www.ac-markets.com | support@ac-markets.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
This report has been prepared by AC Markets and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by AC Markets personnel at any given time. ACM is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.Related reports
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