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Asian Session − Short Term Optimism Wanes − Back to Safe Haven Buying

Wed, Nov 26 2008, 09:37 GMT
by Peter Rosentreich

ACM - Advanced Currency Markets  |  View company's profile

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Market Brief

The Usd was slightly stronger in the Asian session, as risk appetite wanes. EurUsd traded down from 1.3074 to 1.2961, while UsdJpy slipped from 95.75 to 94.72. Commodity and EM currencies movements were correlated with the resurgence of safe-haven buying. Asian regional indexes are mixed, European stocks are trading slightly higher and US stock futures are currently pointing to a lower open. Crude traded back down to the $50.0bll handle and gold has been stable around the $812.00oz. VIX has been steadily declining and is now trading at 60.90. Market news has been dominated by the Fed announcing two new initiatives in an attempt to grease the wedged credit markets. The latest programs, totaling $800bn, will target consumer loans and mortgages and attempt to decrease consumer borrowing costs and improve credit availability for households.

In Australia total construction done in q3 printed a 4.4% increase, well above expectations of a 1.5% gain and reversing the previous quarter -0.4% reading. The gains were most strongly seen in residential construction and is more a reflection of project management then new construction. While the number points to a decent GDP release next week, we are still expecting a 75bp cut by the RBA at the next meeting.

In the UK, the markets will be watching preliminary GDP release, for Q3 revealed the first quarterly contraction in the domestic economy in over 16 years. The key take-away will be the growth in expenditures, which is likely to show a drop in output as the declines in spending, spread across individuals and companies alike, has taken its toll. Overall, we expect to see growing signs of broad based weakness in the UK economy and signs of further deterioration in coming quarters.

With no other scheduled news or economic releases expected in the European session, the markets will be preparing for the US open. Participants will be watching both the equity markets and a rash of economic data (which look bleak as US contraction in Q3 GDP was confirmed at 0.5% yesterday).

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.6758
R 2: 0.6696
R 1: 0.6618
CURRENT: 0.6488
S 1: 0.6333
S 2: 0.6232
S 3: 0.6076

EURJPY
R 3: 131.04
R 2: 128.43
R 1: 126.21
CURRENT: 123.57
S 1: 122.64
S 2: 119.54
S 3: 116.44

USDSGD
R 3: 1.5436
R 2: 1.5345
R 1: 1.5191
CURRENT: 1.5114
S 1: 1.5055
S 2: 1.4965
S 3: 1.4875

• S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

Published on  Wed, Nov 26 2008, 10:37 GMT

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