日本語
Español
中文
Русский
- New York 02:15
- London 07:15
- Barcelona 08:15
- Tokyo 16:15
- Sydney 18:15
0
0
Asian Session − Geopolitics Pressures Crude
Fri, Aug 29 2008, 11:32 GMT
by Peter Rosentreich
ACM - Advanced Currency Markets
Market Brief
The Usd was weaker in Asian session, as crude prices rallied on geopolitical tensions. The EurUsd traded from 1.4673 to 1.4758, while UsdJpy slipped from 109.70 to 109.00. The AudUsd & NzdUsd were unable to hold early gains, falling to 0.8620 and 0.7030, respectively. Crude prices rose as Russia threatened to use oil supplies to Western Europe in retaliation to NATO's naval maneuvers in the Black sea and potential EU sanctions. This negative news offset much of the positive gain yesterday, as the IEA stated it would release strategic stockpiles if storm (expected to be reclassified to Hurricane) Gustav disrupted Gulf output. Crude rose to $117.00bbl. Asian stock indexes are trading higher, following yesterday's WS rally on the unexpectedly strong US GDP figure, with Nikkei leading the way up 2.38%. European futures are pointing to a higher open.
In Japan, CPI figures released surprised to the upside, coming in at 2.3%y/y vs. 2.2% exp (the highest inflation reading in a decade). The unemployment rate dropped to 4.0% vs. 4.1% prior reading. However, despite the healthy labor market consumption indicators remain soft, with household spending falling - 0.5%. Yesterday BoJ member Suda expressed concern over the higher than expected inflation readings, which might give the market some reason to begin pricing in a rate hike. However, we see a 2008 policy rate increase highly unlikely, especially considering the BoJ has repeatedly downgraded its assessment of the domestic economy and downside risk to growth.
In the European session, the market will be watching the Eurozone flash CPI. We expect that falling energy prices should help ease headline from its record 4.0% (similarly to what we saw in German earlier in the week from 3.5% to 3.3%). The EC survey will continue to paint a gloomy picture. With few of the national survey to help guild our forecast, we expect the downward trend to continue (given the high inflation, and low consumer confidence).
| Global indexes | Current level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 13,072.87 | 2.38 |
| Hang Seng Index | 21,392.37 | 2.04 |
| Shanghai Index | 2,397.37 | 2.01 |
| FTSE futures | 5,609.00 | 1.41 |
| DAX futures | 6,436.00 | -0.02 |
| SMI Futures | 7,189.00 | 1.29 |
| DJIA futures | 11,671.00 | -0.2 |
| World markets | Current level | % Change |
| Gold | 834.65 | 0.07 |
| Silver | 13.72 | 0.22 |
| VIX | 19.43 | -1.67 |
| Crude wti | 116.89 | 1.12 |
| USD Index | 77.03 | -0.16 |
| Todays calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| EC Economic Sentiment (Aug) | 89.3 | 89.5 | EZ / 9.00 |
| Unemployment Rate (Jul) | 7.30% | 7.30% | EZ / 9.00 |
| CPI (Aug Prov.) EU Harm. | 4.00% | -0.2%,+4.0 | EZ / 9.00 |
| Personal Income (Jul) | -0.20% | 0.10% | US / 12.30 |
| Personal Spending (Jul) | 0.20% | 0.60% | US / 12.30 |
| PCE Deflator (Jul) | 4.50% | 4.10% | US / 12.30 |
| Core PCE Deflator (Jul) | 0.3%(+2.4% | 0.3%(+2.3% | US / 12.30 |
| GDP (Q2 1st Est.) | 0.60% | -0.30% | CA / 12.30 |
| Chicago PMI (Aug) | 50 | 50.8 | US / 13.45 |
| U. of Michigan Consumer Conf. Index (Aug Fin.) | 62 | 61.7p | US / 14.00 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8846
R 2: 0.8814
R 1: 0.8693
CURRENT: 0.8688
S 1: 0.8513
S 2: 0.8505
S 3: 0.8276
EURJPY
R 3: 165.33
R 2: 164.41
R 1: 163.11
CURRENT: 161.27
S 1: 160.14
S 2: 158.61
S 3: 158.24
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4401
R 2: 1.4333
R 1: 1.4276
CURRENT: 1.4165
S 1: 1.4078
S 2: 1.4016
S 3: 1.3977
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
Published on Fri, Aug 29 2008, 12:01 GMT
Archive
- European Session: Gold Surges to $1165.00
Published On Mon, Nov 23 2009, 10:54 GMT - European Session: BoJ Holds Rates Steady
Published On Fri, Nov 20 2009, 11:06 GMT - European Session: Fed Rhetoric Continues To Stir Up Markets
Published On Thu, Nov 19 2009, 09:41 GMT - Sterling Speculators Await Release Of BoE Minutes
Published On Wed, Nov 18 2009, 09:02 GMT - European Session: Bernankes Comments Linger
Published On Tue, Nov 17 2009, 10:00 GMT
Advanced Currency Markets, S.A.
| 50 Rue du Rhone CH-1204 Geneva
http://www.ac-markets.com | support@ac-markets.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
This report has been prepared by AC Markets and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by AC Markets personnel at any given time. ACM is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.Interested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!
GET CASH BACK FOR YOUR TRADES! Learn more about the Pip Rebate Program
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
©2009 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.