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Market Session Snap-Shot
Asian Session − Usd Falls
Mon, May 5 2008, 09:12 GMT
by Peter Rosentreich
ACM - Advanced Currency Markets
Market Brief
Usd was weaker in Asian session as the markets prepare for a big week in Central Bank announcements. GbpUsd trended up to 1.9766 from 1.9720 while AudUsd bounced off the 21-MA (0.9348) climbing to 0.9412. Jpy funded carry trades were able to reverse last weeks decline with the EurJpy opening above the 5 – MA (162.17) and AudJpy made higher-highs at 99.01. A light week for economic data but heavy on interest rate decisions with the BoE, ECB & RBA ( Korea & Indonesia outside the G10) all announcing.
Last week the focus was on the Usd and the growing sense of optimism around economic data and Fed policy. The highlight was the modest 20k decline in NFP and unexpected fall of unemployment rates to 5.0%. These encouraging signs have increased the probability (temporarily) that the Fed will hold rate in June and was partially the cause for current Usd strength. The easing in oil and commodity prices also gave the greenback support. However both factors have significant downside risks and Usd euphoria might prove short lived. First if history is any guide, then the US labor market could get much worse in the near term with average monthly decline of well over 100k and unemployment creeping up to 5.4%, data consistent with the recessionary number we currently see. Second are the oil and commodity prices which are staying soberly elevated. Many analysts are expecting oil price heading to the 130brl and with solid commodity demand from China these factors will keep the Usd rally contained.
On a side note IMM FX positioning showed speculators closing out of Usd short position in most currencies. The CFTC reports the shift to a net EurUsd short was the first time since 2005 so the recent usd strength was backed by trading positions and any additional position building in Usd favor will have only a minor effect on Usd pricing.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
| Nikkei 225 Index | 14,049.26 | 2.05 |
| Hang Seng Index | 26.264.74 | 0.09 |
| Shanghai Index | 3,761.01 | 1.83 |
| DAX futures | 7,064.50 | -0.22 |
| CAC futures | 5,017.50 | -0.38 |
| SMI Futures | 7,663.00 | 2.1 |
| DJIA futures | 13,013.00 | -0.36 |
| World Markets | Current Level | % Change |
| Gold | 863.15 | 0.78 |
| Silver | 16.62 | 1.28 |
| VIX | 18.18 | -3.7 |
| Crude wti | 116.44 | 0.1 |
| USD Index | 73.29 | -0.29 |
| Todays Calender | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
| PMI Services (Apr Final) | 51.8 | 51.8p | EZ / 9.00 |
| PMI Composite (Apr Final) | 51.9 | 51.9p | EZ / 9.00 |
| Interest Rate Announcement | 10.00% | 9.50% | Rom / 9.00 |
| CIPS/RBS Report on Services (Apr) | 51.7 | 52.1 | UK / 9.30 |
| Producer Price Index (Mar) | 0.7%(+5.6% | 0.6%(+5.3% | EZ / 10.00 |
| ISM - Non- Mfg Composite (april) | 49.1 | 49.6 | US / 15.00 |
| ABC Consumer Confidence (May 4th) | -- | -41 | US / 22.00 |
Currency Tech
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9496
R 2: 0.9473
R 1: 0.9445
CURRENT: 0.9402
S 1: 0.9272
S 2: 0.9249
S 3: 0.9206
EURJPY
R 3: 163.88
R 2: 163.25
R 1: 162.62
CURRENT: 162.81
S 1: 160.60
S 2: 159.83
USDSGD
R 3: 1.3887
R 2: 1.3746
R 1: 1.3661
CURRENT: 1.3607
S 1: 1.3554
S 2: 1.3470
S 3: 1.3318
S 3: 159.70
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
Published on Mon, May 5 2008, 09:41 GMT
Archive
- Asian Session- Dollar Stagnates Meanwhile Euro Awaits
Published On Fri, May 16 2008, 09:22 GMT - Asian Session- Dollar Continues to Hold as Asian Currencies Come Under Some Pressure
Published On Wed, May 14 2008, 09:10 GMT - Asian Session - Dollar Regains Some Confidence Amid Continued Morosity
Published On Tue, May 13 2008, 10:03 GMT - The Dollar is Holding Amid Reappraisals by Central Banks
Published On Fri, May 9 2008, 10:16 GMT - Asian Session - Usd Continues to Surge Higher
Published On Thu, May 8 2008, 07:51 GMT
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