Crude oil rebounded strongly by 11% to settle above 47 Thursday, more than recovering the 7.4% drop the previous day. Trades are concentrated on squaring of previous short positions ahead of OPEC's meeting. Reports that the cartel's exports will drop to 5-year low in 4 weeks to March 28 as well as renewed speculations on stimulus plans in China also boosted the price. The April contract trades narrowly at 46.7 in Asian morning.

OPEC will meet on Sunday to discuss about the oil market demand outlook and whether a 4th output reduction should be adopted. Over the past 2 weeks different opinions expressed by the cartel members made it very hard to predict the final decision. While Libya and Algeria stated the market is oversupplied and a output cut is likely, Nigeria and Qatar opposed further reduction and insisted stricter compliance.

According to Oil Movements, OPEC's exports will average 22.8M bpd (-0.35M bpd) in the 4 weeks ended Feb 28 and will reach the lowest level in 5 years by Mar 28. The tanker tracking agency also estimated a compliance of 65-70% so far, while others (Reuters and Bloomberg) estimated at least 80% compliance.

Although failed to announced a new round of stimulus plan last week, Premier Wen Jiabao in China stated the nation can add 'at any time' to RMB 4 trillion to stimulus policies to help the economy. Premier Wen reiterated the 8% GDP growth in 2009 is within reach.

Stock markets rallied. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 3.5% while Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 5%. Apart from China, the Japanese Government said the a 3rd spending plan to revive the economy is under preparation. News said that the government will buy shares in open market to boost stock prices.

Gold price rose for 2 second consecutive day Thursday as investment demands returned. The precious metal for April delivery has rebounded 3.7% from 891.1, the lowest level in 2 weeks. Near-term outlook turns cautiously optimistic.

The SNB cut its main lending rate to 0.25% from 0.5% and announced to intervene the currency market so as to prevent the Swiss franc from appreciating. This should be positive for gold and investors will turn to the euro from Swiss Franc. Although this act may also push the dollar higher temporarily, given the huge stimulus plans adopted by the US government, the dollar will sink deeper later.

Also treated as safe haven, US Treasury securities have attracted plenty of investors over the past few months. However, China, US government's largest creditor, stated that it's 'worried' about its holdings of Treasuries and wants assurances that the investment is safe.