• Home ::
• Fundamental ::
• Market View ::
• Market Insights

• Send
• Print
• Add To
• Rss

Market Insights

6823e9ce-3857-4bcf-950b-95e33d6e2bc2

1

0

Strong US Growth Boosted Market Sentiment, Risky Assets Rebounded Strongly

Fri, Oct 30 2009, 05:07 GMT
by Oil N' Gold Team

Oil N' Gold

Better-than-expected US GDP growth boosted risk appetite again. Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index gained +2% and +2.3% respectively. Commodity prices rebounded with WTI crude oil rallying +3.1% to close at 79.87. Price briefly broke above 80 again (intra-day high 80.46). Oil products also surged with heating oil gaining +2.9% and RBOB gasoline rising +1.6%. Precious metals also soared amid weakness in USD. Comex gold rose +1.6% to 1046.4 while both silver and platinum climbed more than +2%.

US real GDP expanded +3.5% qoq (annual rate) in 3Q09, beating market expectation of +3% and indicated that recession has ended last quarter. The strong growth was a result of +3.4% surge in consumer spending and +23% increase in residential investment which translated fixed investment spending from contraction (-12.5%) to growth (+2.3%). Stripping off effects of 'cash-for-clunker' program, economic still grew more than +2%.

The dollar retreated against major currencies. USD plunged -0.8% and -1.1% against the euro and pound on strong European economic data. Germany's unemployment surprisingly fell to 8.1% in September, compared with consensus of an increase to 8.3%, from 8.2% a month ago. Moreover, surveys showed that sentiments in all of business, consumer, industrial and services areas improved. AUD, NZD and CAD also soared as driven by rebounds in commodities.

Today in Asia, stock markets extend strength in the US. While the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gains +1.8% and Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average adds +1.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index jumps more than +3%. Financial stocks rally as boosted by strong 3Q09 earnings results.

Saudi Arabia announced that it will move its term contracts in the US from WTI basis to ASCI basis (Argus Sour Crude Index) near year. However, this should not be viewed as a rejection of WTI as a benchmark. Rather, the switch provides a more appropriate reference of Saudi's oil exports which is heavier and sourer than WTI.

Natural gas storage rose +25 bcf to 3759 bcf. The increase was less than market expectation and tightened the year-over-year surplus. However, it continued to push higher the record storage level. Also, weather condition did not have much change on weekly. The inventory build suggested underlying weakness in gas demand. As a result, we view this week's data as neutral to mildly bearish.

Published on  Fri, Oct 30 2009, 05:08 GMT