http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2009-04-30.htmlThe swine flu could not have come at a worse time. Just when there were signs of a nascent recovery, confidence takes another hit. As a result, “reflation trades” may be put on ice if investors revert to “panic mode” again. While it is difficult to assess the full economic impact of the swine flu, we believe some of the dynamics are foreshadowed. This flu may reinforce long-term trends and provide an opportunity for investors to position themselves accordingly. Trade and travel has alreadyThu, 30 Apr 2009 15:22:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2009-04-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2009-04-21.htmlPresent policies may be sowing the seeds for the next financial crisis. Despite recent market optimism, we believe present interventions could produce significant future adverse and unintended consequences. Rather than curing the patient, the present initiatives may be overprescribing the patient with medication that cause significant side effects (and leave a bad taste in the mouth). Prior steps taken by policy makers and central banks seem to have by and large succeeded in stabilizingTue, 21 Apr 2009 08:58:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2009-04-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2009-03-31.htmlThe patchwork of attempts to prop up the financial system has taken on a life of its own – we call it bailout economics. At every step, Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” to guide the economy has become less evident. Back in the 18th century, the economist coined the term as a metaphor for the self-regulating nature of free markets. Economic booms and busts are as old as mankind, but each time a crisis occurs, policy makers want to ensure that the same disaster will never happen again. Most of theTue, 31 Mar 2009 14:17:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2009-03-31.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2009-03-19.htmlReflation refers to policy makers’ attempts to “reflate” the economy, to prop up what many would consider a broken system. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke made it very clear in his March 15 interview on 60 Minutes that he will attempt to stem the tide of market forces: Question: “Are you committing, in this interview, that you are not going to let any of these banks fail? That no matter what their balance sheets actually look like, they are not going to fail?” Bernanke: “They areThu, 19 Mar 2009 08:02:46 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2009-03-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2009-03-10.htmlThe world’s a mess and in our eyes policy makers are inadvertently doing their best to worsen a bad situation. Let’s assume you’ve had it and want to hide somewhere safe to ride out the storm. Unfortunately there appears to be no such thing as a safe asset anymore. Therefore you may want to consider taking a diversified approach to something as mundane as cash. Sure, U.S. Treasury Bills are the one “safe” asset – at least by regulation. But will Treasury Bills retain their purchasing power asTue, 10 Mar 2009 13:51:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2009-03-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2009-03-04.htmlShaken insurance giant AIG has argued that fair value accounting is what got the world into this financial crisis. This debate is flaring up once again as it becomes ever more apparent that many of the world’s largest banks would be insolvent if they priced their securities at “fair” market prices. Recently, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein, wrote in an editorial to the Financial Times: “For Goldman Sachs, the daily marking of positions to current market prices was a key contributor to ourWed, 04 Mar 2009 10:53:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2009-03-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2009-02-25.htmlWith gold reaching $1,000 an ounce and posting new highs versus all currencies, are there any hard currencies left? Over the past 100 years, we have moved further and further away from the gold standard. We see no indication for that trend to reverse; if anything, it may accelerate. As a result, we have cautioned long before this credit crisis erupted that there is no such thing as a safe asset anymore; investors may want to take a diversified approach to something as mundane as cash. ThisWed, 25 Feb 2009 09:21:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2009-02-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2009-01-27.html“China is manipulating its currency,” proclaims incoming Treasury Secretary Geithner. Talking about “manipulation” is helpful only if one’s intent is to impress a local and insult a foreign audience. More productive may be plain talk - the U.S. and China could issue a joint statement along the lines of: “China and the U.S. agree that both will act in their respective self-interest in setting exchange rate policy.” Many factors including supply and demand for a currency ultimately determineTue, 27 Jan 2009 14:43:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2009-01-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2009-01-13.htmlThe Federal Reserve (Fed) has gone beyond playing with fire, and may have indeed set the house on fire. It’s one thing to push interest rates to near zero to stimulate the economy; it’s another to “monetize the debt” by printing money to buy government debt. In recent weeks, the Fed has broken outside even those boundaries and become actively engaged in managing the private sector beyond the core banking system. Worse still, the steps taken may be difficult to reverse and as such may shape theTue, 13 Jan 2009 15:28:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2009-01-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-12-17.htmlFaced with the threat of deflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be trying to drive the dollar lower to spur inflation. As policy makers don’t want home prices to deteriorate further, an alternative is to inflate the prices of all other goods and services: as a result, the relative prices of homes would be less expensive. Weakening the dollar is an effective policy tool to drive up inflation as the cost of import goes up. Just be careful: the Fed may be getting more than it is bargaining for.Wed, 17 Dec 2008 14:37:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-12-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-12-10.htmlChina has a unique opportunity and responsibility to shape not only its own future, but also that of the global economy. While China is by no means responsible for the plight the world faces, it has played an important role in allowing global imbalances to be built. If China decides to help prop up the world economic model that got us into trouble in the first place, we may face the same challenges again a few years down the road. Except then, China may not have $2 trillion in reserves toWed, 10 Dec 2008 14:43:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-12-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-12-02.htmlDeflation won't happen here; at least not if Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman's Ben Bernanke's plan pans out. Deflation is considered a persistent decline in prices of goods and services; in a speech in 2002, Bernanke outlined the steps he would take if the U.S. ever faced the threat of deflation. Deflation is suffocating anyone holding debt as the debt burden becomes more difficult to finance with shrinking income; in contrast, inflation bails out those who have a lot of debt. In ourTue, 02 Dec 2008 13:39:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-12-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-11-19.htmlWhen just about all economists agree, should we rejoice or be scared? During the Weimar Republic, economists at the Reichsbank argued that printing money to finance a war was “exogenous” to the economy and thus not inflationary. Hyperinflation in the ensuing years proved them wrong. We tend to think we are so much smarter today. Economists know how to run regression models; in the absence of a historic precedent, some economists know how to draw shifting supply and demand curves. But commonWed, 19 Nov 2008 14:30:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-11-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-11-11.htmlFollowing calls by European leaders for a “Bretton Woods II”, the Bush administration has invited the “G-20” countries to come to Washington with the lofty goal to reform the world financial system. Will the way we do business change November 15? The first Bretton Woods conference, held in 1944, gave birth to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and – albeit with half a century delay – the World Trade Organization. The Bretton Woods conference is best known for firmlyTue, 11 Nov 2008 14:39:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-11-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-10-27.htmlPerhaps the most interesting development during the intensification of the credit crisis is that the price of gold did not climb higher than it did. Upon the initiation of the crisis in August 2007, the price of gold surged reaching a high of $1002.95 on March 14, 2007. Since then the cost of the precious commodity has fluctuated with the most recent price action sending it to recent lows of 725.74. However, given the pervasive uncertainty in markets we think that this represents a strategicMon, 27 Oct 2008 10:23:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-10-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-10-22.htmlThe injection of capital and elimination of caps on swap lines between foreign central banks and the Fed have engineered modest improvement in credit indictors over the past week.Wed, 22 Oct 2008 09:07:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-10-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-10-17.htmlGasoline prices have seen a steep decline over the past three months. Since hitting a peak on July 20, the national average price for a gallon of gasoline has declined 52 cents, which should inject approximately $120 to $130 billion into the pocketbooks of consumers, with more expected on the way. Although, the decline in the cost of energy and other commodities will somewhat offset the overall fall in the rate of personal consumption, the US consumer is well on its way to pulling back theFri, 17 Oct 2008 13:36:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-10-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-10-09.htmlWhile, the service sector does account for well over 80% of overall economic activity, industrial production often provides a very timely indicator implying the end of the business cycle and the onset of a recession. The pro-cyclical nature of the report provides a well-timed and sensitive indicator of the current rate of growth in overall output. We expect that the September industrial production report based on our forecast of a -1.4% print will confirm other grim data that the market hasThu, 09 Oct 2008 16:18:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-10-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-10-08.htmlEurope was all but written off on Tuesday when Gordon Brown, the UK prime minister announced late in the day that £50 billion (about $85 billion) may be injected into several of the biggest banks. The details known so far are that eligible banks can issue preference shares to the government; the Bank of England makes another £200 billion of liquidity available in the short-term markets; and a further £250 billion of government guarantees are issued to help banks in their funding needs. We haveWed, 08 Oct 2008 16:23:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-10-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-10-07.htmlWe have been warning for some time that “there is no such thing as a safe asset anymore, you have to take a diversified approach to something as mundane as cash.” Unfortunately, the current crisis shows that we may be right. Physical gold is attractive to many investors because of its lack of counter party risk. The only counter party risk with gold held in your personal vault is that someone may break in and steal it. However, even staunch gold bugs rarely hold all their net worth in gold,Tue, 07 Oct 2008 16:24:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-10-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-10-03.htmlThe upcoming release of the September non-farm payrolls report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not provide much comfort to the market or the public. Our forecast implies that payrolls will decline -105K and that the rate of unemployment will increase to 6.2% for the month. The strike at Boeing and the displacement of workers in the Southeast due to the twin hurricanes that hit the area during the sampling period should send the headline estimate of job losses above the recent trend. TheFri, 03 Oct 2008 08:54:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-10-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-09-26.htmlThe consequences of the troubled asset relief program (TARP) will be felt for a number of years. The death of the investment-banking model, the transformation of the domestic system of finance and the coming wave of regulation of what is left of Wall Street will have far-reaching consequences. This, however, will take much time to absorb and assess. What is of immediate concern, is how the proposed $700 billion TARP will impact the budget outlook for fiscal year 2009. Looking at the -$486Fri, 26 Sep 2008 13:56:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-09-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-09-25.htmlIn the coming days, Congress may authorize $700 billion to buy bad debt from financial institutions. Even if all challenges of the plan were to be overcome, the plan does not address one of the fundamental reasons why credit markets don't function properly: the under-capitalization of financial institutions. Under-capitalized financial institutions may seek to repair their balance sheet rather than engage in lending activities. If securities are purchased at market value, all the TreasuryThu, 25 Sep 2008 16:02:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-09-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-09-19.htmlThe events of the past seven days have altered the shape of the market and will impact the economy going forward. The current financial crisis reflects the failure of firms to deleverage in an acceptable period of time. The inability or unwillingness to accept the terms of re-capitalization offered troubled institutions has set in motion the financial train wreck of which we all bear witness. While growth over the past year has exceeded the very low expectations set by the market, the risk toFri, 19 Sep 2008 13:18:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-09-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-09-15.htmlNearly ten years ago the Federal Open Market Committee convened a special meeting to address the problems in U.S. financial markets regarding the failure at Long Term Capital Management. It is not without irony that one decade later the Fed and the U.S. Treasury are addressing an infinitely more complex problem with respect to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, while at the same time contemplating the potential failure of major investment and commercial banks. Unlike the special meeting that occurredMon, 15 Sep 2008 08:34:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-09-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-08-13.htmlWe have been cautioning for some time that volatility in the currency markets may increase further, even from the elevated levels of the past year. Nonetheless, violent market action is nerve rattling, even to seasoned investors. An uptick in volatility tends to be associated with an unwinding of leveraged positions. This is also the case this time, but the types of trades being unwound look very different from those just a few months ago when the “carry trade” was the talk of the day. To shedWed, 13 Aug 2008 15:22:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-08-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-08-01.htmlThe mid-session review of the federal budget released during the past week saw the White House revise its outlook for the deficit towards nominal highs. The administration is forecasting that the deficit will come in at $389 billion in 2008 and the 2009 deficit should arrive at $482 billion. The provisional estimate is a snapshot of current spending plans that does not take into account the emerging economic reality. This year seven banks have failed, which may be a grim preview of theFri, 01 Aug 2008 13:10:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-08-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-07-25.htmlThe upcoming week will be defined by two closely linked US macroeconomic data that will frame the debate about which direction the economy is poised to take during the latter half of 2008. Yet, these two data are likely to paint two very different portraits regarding the condition of the economy. On Thursday the market will observe the preliminary estimate of economic growth during the second quarter of the year, followed by the publication of the July non-farm payrolls the next morning.Fri, 25 Jul 2008 14:06:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-07-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-07-21.htmlThe Chinese symbol for crisis also can be expressed as an opportunity. The current collapse of confidence in the domestic system of finance and financial leadership provides such a potential moment. The three part proposal to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has bestowed upon our political and economic leaders the responsibility of ensuring that no one company again becomes too big too fail. The crisis requires more than the avoidance of moral hazards. Rather, the solution to the currentMon, 21 Jul 2008 09:24:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-07-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-07-11.htmlOver the past few weeks many notable analysts have made the case that the economy is in the process of recovery. The market has celebrated the wonder of the “resilient consumer.” Given the still fragile state of the economy we think that this is a bit overblown. A cold-eyed, hard-nosed analysis of the true condition of all things financial provides us with a very different assessment of the economy. But, with a major week of fundamental data and the onset of earnings season for financials uponFri, 11 Jul 2008 13:41:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-07-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-07-02.htmlOver the past several months it has become clear that there is a cauldron of regulation brewing in Washington. The bursting of the subprime bubble and dislocation in the financial sector has brought with it, in its aftermath, the risk of overregulation. Members of the political class are brimming with confidence that the political, economic and social considerations have aligned to finally tame the market. Serious consideration is being given to policies that would curb the ability ofWed, 02 Jul 2008 15:29:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-07-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-06-27.htmlAlong the frontier between Southern California and Baja California it has always been a tradition for consumers to engage in a bit of arbitrage due to the temporary differences in prices for basic goods. Normally, this has been confined to non-durables and foodstuffs. But, beyond Mexican “cerveza” and other spirits, the changing price of oil has jump-started black market activity north of the border. While an open secret in California, this activity became national news due to a recent WallFri, 27 Jun 2008 15:25:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-06-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-06-20.htmlLost amidst recent data on inflation, the rise in oil prices, a deepening crisis in the housing market and the uncanny ability of Goldman-Sachs to outperform market expectations was the deterioration of the current account balance in Q1'08. The U.S. current-account deficit increased to $176.4 billion in the first quarter of 2008 vs. the $167.2 billion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2007. The primary catalyst for the increase was a decline in earnings from foreign investments and the sharpFri, 20 Jun 2008 14:45:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-06-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-06-06.htmlWith the economy caught somewhere in the purple haze between recession and anemic growth, many market prognosticators have been making the case that the worst is behind us. With respect to the credit crisis, I do think that with the exception of a few nerve-rattling write-offs still to come, that is true. Credit spreads have begun to narrow, volatility measures seem to have settled down in recent weeks and the very unorthodox liquidity measures taken by the Fed appear to have calmed the nervesFri, 06 Jun 2008 08:46:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/insights-market-outlook/2008-06-06.html