Can the Dow Sustain Its Gains?

Thu, Jul 17 2008, 10:37 GMT
by Andrei Pehar

Next report will be published on Thursday, August 7th

Both US and Asian markets had strong rallies yesterday, with the Dow closing up 276.74 points, the Nikkei up 127.15, and Hang Seng up by 511.22  Oil continuing its move down certainly helped these rallies.  It is currently at 134.13, and in pre-market trading futures are currently down by 47 cents.

The big question today will be whether the Dow can hold in to its gains, or perhaps even post a higher high - thus far every recent gain has been quickly given back.  Key to this, I think, will once again be oil, as well as some of the earnings reports we get today.  Companies scheduled to report include Coca-Cola and JP Morgan; with the latter it will be interesting to see how the buy-out of Bear Sterns has affected their overall balance sheets - and whether what they have to say helps push up or drag down the rest of the financials.

Overall I'm expecting a fairly choppy European session, with perhaps a bit more Dollar bearishness than bullishness.  If oil drops further this situation may reverse.  Then at 12:30 GMT all eyes will be on the US reports, as we have building permits, housing starts, and unemployment claims all coming out at the same time.  The tone of these reports will likely set the mood for the US session, with the Philly Fed manufacturing index to follow at 14:00 GMT.  Kroszner will be speaking at 13:10 GMT, so be sure to tighten in your stops if in a trade at that time.

Canada has some important news due out today as well - we get foreign securities purchases at 12:30 GMT, and the Bank of Canada will also be releasing their monetary policy report at 14:30 GMT.  BoC governor Carney will be speaking shortly after that at 15:15 GMT, with his speech expected to have a fairly big impact on the CAD cross pairs as he outlines the central bank's future plans and concerns.  BoC voted on Tuesday to leave their key interest rate unchanged at 3.00%.