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Dollar Rally Ends With More Disappointing News Out of the US

Thu, Mar 27 2008, 19:50 GMT
by Andrei Pehar

fxKnight.com


Let's start with the good news.  Unemployment claims in the US dropped from 375K down to 366K.  GDP growth remained constant at 0.6%, and the Deflator (a GDP-based inflationary measure) shrank from 2.7% to 2.4%

However looking back at the week, we also saw core Durable Goods orders drop from -1.0% to-2.6%.  New Home Sales also fell from 601K to 590K and the national Home Price Index dropped by 10.7% for the year.  Existing home sales rose slightly from 4.89M up to 5.03M, likely influenced by the lower prices and speculative rather than residential buying.

But the big news story this week was US Consumer Confidence, which came in at 64.5 - signaling the biggest decline since the 1973 oil embargo.  Oil over $100 per barrel, OPEC threatening to reduce production, and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are not helping the situation.

Fears that the US will slip into recession are growing, and the Dollar - after a brief rally before Easter - has resumed its decline.  The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have held meetings regarding ways to "protect" the Euro from going beyond 1.60 and the Yen from dropping below 95.00, however it is yet unclear as to what form this intervention may take.   

Economic reports coming out of both Europe and the UK suggest that - so far - those economies are remaining resilient.  Asian markets, however, seem to be reflecting the Dow's movements on concerns that the economies are still very much dependent upon one another.

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