Global Chartbook

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November 2009 − The Worst Is Behind Us. Now What?
Fri, Nov 13 2009, 09:30 GMT
by Wells Fargo Research Team
Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
Executive Summary:
The global economy plunged into its deepest recession in decades last autumn as financial markets seized up in the wake of Lehman Brothers’ failure. By early this year industrial production in the 30 countries that comprise the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development was down more than 15 percent from year-earlier levels (Figure 1).
It could have been far worse, however. The governments of the world’s major countries averted catastrophe last year by taking steps to prevent a wholesale collapse of their financial systems via recapitalization, loan guarantees and increased deposit insurance. In addition, governments responded to the crisis with stimulative economic policies. Major central banks slashed policy rates to unprecedented levels, and governments in most major countries opened the fiscal taps.
There are signs that the medicine is having its desired effects and that growth is returning to most economies. The global recovery is being led by Asia where growth turned positive again earlier this year. The financial systems of most Asian economies were not nearly as levered as their western counterparts, so banks in the region were able to ramp up lending again. In addition, most Asian governments responded to the crisis with expansionary fiscal policy. The year-over-year GDP growth rate in China rebounded to a strong 9 percent in the third quarter of 2009, but the expansion is not confined to only China. Many other countries in the region, including the large economies of Japan, Korea and Taiwan, are posting positive growth rates again.
Major economies appear to be stabilizing as well. The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter. The temporary effects of fiscal stimulus certainly played a role in the positive outturn in the third quarter, but increases in consumer purchases of nondurable goods and business spending on equipment and software indicate that there is more to the story than simply fiscal stimulus. Monthly indicators suggest that real GDP growth in the Euro-zone turned positive as well in the third quarter. The Japanese economy probably posted its second consecutive quarter of growth in the third quarter.
Will the global economy slip back into recession again? Probably not. Production was slashed much faster than final demand in most economies, which led to sharp declines in inventories. The unprecedented liquidation of inventories appears to be coming to an end, and producers should continue to boost production to bring output back into alignment with final sales. In that regard, stimulus measures enacted late last year and earlier this year are helping to boost activity. Most western economies should post positive growth rates over the next few quarters. That said, the modest global upturn that appears to be underway remains fragile, and self-sustaining recoveries, especially in most advanced economies, have not yet been firmly established.
On a purchasing power parity basis, we forecast global GDP will decline about one percent in 2009. Although our projection may not sound “bad,” global GDP has never contracted, at least not since the International Monetary Fund began calculating the series in 1970. We project that the global economy will grow close to its long-run average of 3.6 percent in 2010 before accelerating to roughly 4 percent in 2011. Relative to 2004-2007, however, when global GDP grew nearly 5 percent per annum, the global recovery that we project over the next few years may seem a bit sluggish. Indeed, we project that growth in the United States and in some western European economies will be held back by slow growth in consumer spending as individuals attempt to delever and repair battered balance sheets.
Inflation rates in most countries shot higher in the first half of 2008 and commodity prices went through the roof. On a global basis, CPI inflation rose to 6 percent in 2008, the highest rate in about 10 years. However, the global downturn caused commodity prices to collapse, and global inflation has receded significantly this year. Despite unprecedented amounts of monetary stimulus, inflation should not really be an issue until the global economy truly strengthens. Due to the slow recovery that we project, we believe that inflation in most countries will largely remain benign over the next few years.
The Dollar Should Appreciate Modestly versus Major Currencies
The dollar strengthened significantly last autumn as risk aversion spiked. U.S. Treasury securities are considered to be the safest assets in the world, and massive buying of U.S. government bonds by foreign investors contributed to the dollar’s strength. However, the greenback has given up most of its gains over the past few months as investors have turned less risk averse. With stock markets rising in most countries and corporate bonds rallying, the safety of low-yielding U.S. Treasury securities is not as compelling as it was only a few months ago when worst-case scenarios did not seem farfetched.
Looking ahead, the currency strategy team of Wells Fargo projects that the dollar will trend modestly higher against most major currencies. Investors expect that most major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, will be on hold until well into next year. Therefore, expected changes in short-term interest rates will not have as much of an influence on exchange rates as in the past. As the U.S. recovery gathers steam, foreign investment flows into long-term securities (e.g., corporate bonds and equities) and direct investment inflows should resume, helping to lift the greenback. In addition, the decline in the U.S. current account deficit will exert less headwinds on the greenback than it did earlier this decade when the dollar was trending lower.
However, most “commodity” and emerging market currencies should continue to trend higher versus the greenback in the quarters ahead. The global recovery should cause most commodity prices to drift higher, which should help to support “commodity” currencies (e.g., the Aussie dollar). In addition, rising levels of risk tolerance should cause capital to flow to “risky” developing countries, which should put upward pressure on many of those currencies.
Published on
Fri, Nov 13 2009, 09:30 GMT
Archive
- November 2009 - The Worst Is Behind Us. Now What?
Published On Fri, Nov 13 2009, 09:30 GMT
- September 2009 - Is the Deepest Recession in Decades Ending?
Published On Thu, Sep 10 2009, 13:19 GMT
- June 2009
Published On Fri, Jun 12 2009, 07:52 GMT
- May 2009
Published On Fri, May 15 2009, 09:41 GMT
- April 2009
Published On Thu, Apr 9 2009, 13:31 GMT
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Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
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Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks.
If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets.
Higher Margin Maintenance Requirements on Volatile Issues
The wide swings in intra-day trading have also necessitated higher margin maintenance requirements for certain stocks, specifically Internet, e-commerce and high-tech issues. Due to their high volatility, some of these stocks will have an initial and a maintenance requirement of up to 70%. Stocks are added to this list daily based on market conditions. Please call 1-800-TRADERS to check whether a particular stock has a higher margin maintenance requirement.
Please note: this higher margin requirement applies to both new purchases and current holdings. A change in the margin requirement for a current holding may result in a margin maintenance call on your account.
Fast Markets
A fast market is characterized by heavy trading and highly volatile prices. These markets are often the result of an imbalance of trade orders, for example: all "buys" and no "sells." Many kinds of events can trigger a fast market, for example a highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO), an important company news announcement or an analyst recommendation. Remember, fast market conditions can affect your trades regardless of whether they are placed with an agent, over the internet or on a touch tone telephone system.
In Fast Markets service response and account access times may vary due to market conditions, systems performance, and other factors.
Potential Risks in a Fast Market
"Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate
Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive.
Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead
In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading.
Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile
IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price.
Large Orders in Fast Markets
Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5.
In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees.
This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted.
Online Trading and Duplicate Orders
Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed.
Limit Orders Can Limit Risk
A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected.
Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets
During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent.
Freeriding is Prohibited
Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security.
Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days.
Stop and Stop Limit Orders
A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price.
A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price.
A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better.
Glossary
All or None (AON)
A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed.
Day Order
A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session.
Fill or Kill
An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled.
Good Til Canceled (GTC)
An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order).
Immediate or Cancel
An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled.
Limit Order
An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases).
Maintenance Call
A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity.
Margin Requirement
Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales.
Market Makers
NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds.
Market Order
An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace.
Specialists
Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy.
Stop
An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price.
Stop Limit
An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order.
These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.
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