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FX Levels for Today December 5, 2008
Fri, Dec 5 2008, 02:16 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Remember the days when currencies would fall after a rate cut? Especially if the cut was bigger than expected!!
The ECB cuts by 75bps instead of 50bps, and the BOE cuts by 100bps, but the USD weakens, and the EUR rallies thru good resistance at 1.2740.
The Dollar Index futures contract showing some encouraging signs of impending weakness. I think the recent highs around 87.50 could hold any further upside. A break under 84.50 would confirm the bearish sentiment towards the greenback.
US Payrolls tonight, and they're expecting about 300k jobs lost last month. A larger number will see the USD fall, but this could be offset by stocks falling on further recessionary concerns, which will flow onto weaker crude prices and then weaker commodity prices in general.
I think starting over the Xmas/NewYear break, we'll see the EUR lead the recovery. The holiday period tends to see light volumes, exaggerated moves, and stops being triggered unceramoniously. When the market sobers up in late January, we'll see the USD decline accelerate as traders get back into risk, start looking for yield again, and stocks recover on the back of Obama's inauguration.
Have a good weekend all!!
Data for Today
EU: PMI
US: Payrolls and Unemployment
Trades for Today
EUR: Buy dips to 1.2720 pre payrolls, and work a tight stop over payrolls
JPY: Sell around 93.50
Silver: Buy around 9.20, with stops below 8.80.
Gold: I'm happy to hold my longs in this pullback, with the view to adding if we see the mid $750's
Published on Fri, Dec 5 2008, 02:33 GMT
Archive
- FX Levels for Today. August 14, 2009
Published On Fri, Aug 14 2009, 01:34 GMT - FX Levels for Today. August 13, 2009
Published On Thu, Aug 13 2009, 02:20 GMT - FX Levels for Today. August 10, 2009
Published On Mon, Aug 10 2009, 01:55 GMT - FX Levels for Today. August 6, 2009
Published On Thu, Aug 6 2009, 02:04 GMT - FX Levels for Today. August 5, 2009
Published On Wed, Aug 5 2009, 02:07 GMT
Income Generation Strategies
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http://www.incomegenerationstrategy.com/ | abdul.khan@tricom.com.au
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