日本語
Español
中文
- New York 02:29
- London 07:29
- Barcelona 08:29
- Tokyo 16:29
- Sydney 18:29
3
0
FX Levels for Today. August 14, 2009
Fri, Aug 14 2009, 01:34 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Markets never see a shakeout until everybody is fully invested.
I think we might see the likes of the EUR, GBP and AUD take a breather today, after strong gains again overnight.
Please see below for today's trade ideas
For those interested, I will be presenting a webinar for FX Street today at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
EU: CPI
US: CPI
US: IP and Cap-U
US: U. of Michigan Confidence
Trades for Today
EUR: Sell moves towards 1.4320
AUDJPY: Sell up around 81.20
GBP: Sell into a move towards 1.6630
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Fri, Aug 14 2009, 01:34 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. August 13, 2009
Thu, Aug 13 2009, 02:20 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The real world and the financial markets are miles apart!
The overnight comments from the Fed suggest the good times are back, and that financial doomsday has been avoided. Despite my scepticism, I can no longer stand in front of this train, I have to go with it.
Markets never see a shakeout until everybody is fully invested.
Please see below for today's trade ideas
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
EU: GDP
US: Retail Sales
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Business Inventories
Trades for Today
EUR: Buy dips towards yesterday's lows
AUD: Buy dips towards yesterday's lows
AUDJPY: Buy dips towards 79.00
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Thu, Aug 13 2009, 02:20 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. August 10, 2009
Mon, Aug 10 2009, 01:55 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
A bit of a mixed bag post payrolls - stocks up, but so is the USD along with yen crosses. Elsewhere, the EUR, GBP and AUD are down, along with Gold.
The EUR's break back below 1.4350 suggests this could now be resistance, while a move back towards 1.40 cannot be ruled out.
Please see below for today's trade ideas
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
Trades for Today
EUR: Sell into strength towards 1.4280
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Mon, Aug 10 2009, 01:55 GMT
3
0
FX Levels for Today. August 6, 2009
Thu, Aug 6 2009, 02:04 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
You have to be quick to take your profit off the table in this current market! Overnight, stocks weakened slightly, but the bears still failed to gain control, despite soft jobs data.
The EUR again found support around 1.4350 - the old resistance level.
AUS jobs data was better than expected today, continuing the give the AUD support
Please see below for today's trade ideas
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
EU: ECB Meeting
UK: BOE Meeting
US: Weekly Jobless
Trades for Today
GBPJPY: Sell a break below 160.60
GBPCHF: Sell a break of 1.8015
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Thu, Aug 6 2009, 02:04 GMT
2
0
FX Levels for Today. August 5, 2009
Wed, Aug 5 2009, 02:07 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
You have to be quick to take your profit off the table in this current market! Overnight, stocks looked to weakening in London, which then saw the yen crosses along with the AUD and gold slip, but all this turned around in the US session on the back of more good economic numbers.
Tonight's ADP report will set the mood ahead of Friday's NFP data. A good jobs number could be another nail in the USD's coffin.
EURUSD broke up through that 1.4340 area I mentioned earlier in the week. This area now becomes good support, as we saw overnight.
Please see below for today's trade ideas
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
EU: Retail Sales
UK: Industrial Production
US: ADP Employment Report
US: Factory Orders
Trades for Today
NZDJPY: Sell a break below 63.85
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Wed, Aug 5 2009, 02:07 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. August 4, 2009
Tue, Aug 4 2009, 03:08 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Stocks continue to lead the global markets, and the USD feels the full brunt of the selling. Baiscally, there isnt a great deal on the horizon that could see the tide turn significantly in the short-term.
EURUSD broke up through that 1.4340 area I mentioned yesterday. This area now becomes good support.
The AUD remains well supported on the back of solid retails sales data earlier today, and positive comments from the RBA following their meeting today.
Please see below for today's trade ideas
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
EU: PPI
UK: PMI
US: PCE Deflator
US: Pending Home Sales
Trades for Today
GBP: Sell a break of 1.6900
GBPCHF: Buy a break above 1.8030
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Tue, Aug 4 2009, 03:08 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. August 3, 2009
Mon, Aug 3 2009, 03:46 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Stocks continue to lead the global markets, and the USD feels the full brunt of the selling.
EURUSD has traded around the top of its recent 2 month range around 1.4330. A break up through 1.4340 could prove decisive as could another failure.
Please see below for today's trade ideas
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
US: ISM Manufacturing
US: Construction Spending
Trades for Today
GBPJPY: Sell a break of 158.00
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Mon, Aug 3 2009, 03:46 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. July 30, 2009
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 02:18 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
China's market is down 5% overnight, and the world's stock markets react for a few minutes and then look to resume the rally. What is going on here?
I remain short AUDJPY, and AUDUSD in small size.
Please see below for today's trade ideas
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
US: Weekly Jobless
Trades for Today
CADCHF: Sell a break of 99.40
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Thu, Jul 30 2009, 02:18 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. July 28, 2009
Tue, Jul 28 2009, 04:02 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Market's are showing signs of tiring. US Dollar Index is due for a bounce. Gold was unable to sustain the break above 956. The planets are starting to line up folks for a good turn around.
I remain short AUDJPY, and AUDUSD in small size.
Please see below for today's trade ideas
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
US: Consumer Confidence
US: Richmond Fed. Manufacturing Index
Trades for Today
AUDJPY: Sell a break of 77.80
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Tue, Jul 28 2009, 04:02 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. July 27, 2009
Mon, Jul 27 2009, 02:32 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Market's are showing signs of tiring. US Dollar Index is due for a bounce. Gold was unable to sustain the break above 956. The planets are starting to line up folks for a good turn around.
I remain short AUDJPY, and AUDUSD in small size.
Please see below for today's trade ideas
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
US: New Home Sales
Trades for Today
CADJPY: Sell a break of 8700
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Mon, Jul 27 2009, 02:32 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. July 24, 2009
Fri, Jul 24 2009, 00:35 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Market's are showing signs of tiring. US Dollar Index is due for a bounce. Gold was unable to sustain the break above 956. The planets are starting to line up folks for a good turn around
Please see below for today's trade ideas
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
UK: GDP
US: Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Trades for Today
AUDJPY: Sell moves towards 77.50
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Fri, Jul 24 2009, 00:35 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. July 23, 2009
Thu, Jul 23 2009, 04:22 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Market's are showing signs of tiring. US Dollar Index is due for a bounce. USD is weak in Asian trade today, while yen crosses are firmer across the board.
Having said that though, look at gold and how it looks to be building up the pressure to break up through 955.
Please see below for today's trade ideas
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
UK: Retail Sales
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Existing Home Sales
Trades for Today
AUDJPY: Sell a break below 76.80
AUDUSD: Sell into strength around 0.8180
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Thu, Jul 23 2009, 04:22 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. July 21, 2009
Tue, Jul 21 2009, 02:40 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Market's are showing signs of tiring. US Dollar Index is due for a bounce.
Please see below for today's trade ideas
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
US: Bernanke starts 2 day testimony
Trades for Today
CADJPY: Sell 84.80
USDCAD: Buy a abreak above 1.1095
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Tue, Jul 21 2009, 02:40 GMT
7
0
FX Levels for Today. July 16, 2009
Tue, Jul 14 2009, 02:20 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
China's data today points to a less than rosy picture.
Going into the end of the week i think we might see some profit-taking in US stocks, which will flow through to a pullback in the likes of GBP, AUD, and various Yen crosses.
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Philly Fed
Trades for Today
AUDUSD: Sell moves towards 0.8000
GBP: Sell moves towards 1.6320-40
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Tue, Jul 14 2009, 02:20 GMT
4
0
FX Levels for Today. July 13, 2009
Mon, Jul 13 2009, 01:38 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The market continues to move between risk averse and risk tolerant. Once again it seems that the FX market is looking to the stock market for a lead. On Friday we saw another move back into safety as we saw the Yen and USD firm, while the AUD and commodities weakened. In Asian trade today we've seen the reverse happen, but traders remain cautious.
With US reporting season will hot up tomorrow with Intel and Goldmans reporting. The stock market's movements suggest a "sell the rumour-buy the fact" approach. We could see firmer stocks later in the week.
Gold will continue to lack favour in the early part of the week, and thus remain directionless.
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
US: Budget Statement
Trades for Today
JPY: Buy a break above 93.20
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Mon, Jul 13 2009, 01:38 GMT
4
0
FX Levels for Today. July 9, 2009
Thu, Jul 9 2009, 05:31 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Another move back into safety overnight as we saw the Yen and USD firm, while the AUD and commodities weakened. With the Yen crosses coming off considerably, you have to start thinking about the BOJ maybe stepping in here somewhere.
With US reporting season starting this week, the stock market's movements suggest a "sell the rumour-buy the fact" approach. We could see firmer stocks later in the week.
The buyers finally ran out of patience with Gold pushing the metal below its recent lows around 915 as the inflation story became rather deflated, hehe.
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
UK: BOE Meeting
US: Weekly Jobless
Trades for Today
GBP: Buy a abreak above 1.6130
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Thu, Jul 9 2009, 05:31 GMT
5
0
FX Levels for Today. July 7, 2009
Tue, Jul 7 2009, 03:21 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
A surprising turn-around overnight - USD was firm in London, only to reverse all gains in NY as the EUR, GBP and AUD bounced.
With US reporting season starting this week, the stock market's movements suggest a "sell the rumour-buy the fact" approach. We could see firmer stocks later in the week.
Gold tried to bounce in line with the EUR overnight, but looks like it's headed lower before it turns again.
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
UK: Industrial Production
Trades for Today
EUR: Sell moves towards 1.4010
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Tue, Jul 7 2009, 03:21 GMT
7
0
FX Levels for Today. July 6, 2009
Mon, Jul 6 2009, 05:06 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Could be a lacklustre start to the week today, as the markets return from the US holiday and in the absence of any major data releases
Asian stocks have been weak all day, suggesting yen crosses could remain capped for the Europe and US sessions
Gold remains range bound like the rest of the market, between 925-945
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
US: ISM Non-Manufacturing
Trades for Today
EUR: Sell moves towards 1.4010
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Mon, Jul 6 2009, 05:06 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. July 2, 2009
Thu, Jul 2 2009, 01:54 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Disappointing ADP report out last night, suggests tonight's Payrolls data could show about 500k job losses for the month. What is China thinking - talking up a new reserve currency again last night?
With the 4th July holiday coming up this weekend, im expecting the market action will wind down shortly after Payrolls is released today
Best to trade for small gains in this sort of market.
Gold bounced overnight on the back of the USD weakness, but remains range bound like the rest of the market, between 925-945
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
EU: PPI
EU: ECB Meeting
US: Non-Farm Payrolls
US: Factory Orders
Trades for Today
USDJPY: Sell a break below 96.20
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Thu, Jul 2 2009, 01:54 GMT
7
0
FX Levels for Today. July 1, 2009
Wed, Jul 1 2009, 03:50 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Alot of data out tonight on both sides of the Atlantic. Not sure which way it's headed, but given that the USD strengthened yesterday, we might see it go the other way today as the market remains rangebound.
Best to trade for small gains in this sort of market.
Gold will have resistance now around 935, with good support down around 915.
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
GER: PMI
EU: PMI
UK: PMI
US: ADP Employment report
US: Pending Home Sales
Trades for Today
AUDJPY: Sell a break below 77.00
EURAUD: Buy a break above 1.7450
AUDUSD: Sell strength towards 0.8120
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Wed, Jul 1 2009, 03:50 GMT
4
0
FX Levels for Today. June 26, 2009
Fri, Jun 26 2009, 01:30 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
An all to confusing session overnight - I cant seem to find any sensible reason to explain what happened last night. The USD came off, stocks went higher, along with commodities. The US data was nothing too spectacular either.
Best to stand aside in these sorts of circumstances and await a clearer picture.
Gold continues to firm in Asian trade today, but a break back under 930 could put an end to this recent strength.
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
US: U. of Michigan Sentiment
Trades for Today
USDCAD: Sell a break below 1.1520
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Fri, Jun 26 2009, 01:30 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. June 25, 2009
Thu, Jun 25 2009, 04:37 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
All a bit boring really - the Fed meeting went as expected, the data was unsurprising, and US stocks remain choppy.
Tonight's US GDP should be worth a look, also Bernanke's testimony to BofA enquiry
The bounce in gold could be short lived if we break back under 923, particularly the way it rejected the push towards 940 overnight.
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
US: GDP
US: Weekly Jobless
Trades for Today
NZDUSD: Sell a break below 0.6370
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Thu, Jun 25 2009, 04:37 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. June 19, 2009
Fri, Jun 19 2009, 02:05 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
In case you have been wondering, I have been away this week investigating some new trading techniques which are looking very encouraging at this stage. Over coming weeks I will be looking to implement some of these tools into my trading with the results for all to see.
Not much to do today it would appear. I would expect the USD to remain well contained going into the weekend.
Gold continues to hug the trendline which comes in around 929 today. A break below could send us down to around 910-900, or even under 900 if stops get hit.
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
Trades for Today
Nothing at this stage
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Fri, Jun 19 2009, 02:05 GMT
2
0
FX Levels for Today. June 12, 2009
Fri, Jun 12 2009, 04:28 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD came under pressure again overnight as the markets managed to survive the latest US Treasury auctions.
I'm a Buyer of gold on a pullback towards 920, and/or a break above 962, with initial resistance around 967 is proving hard to get through.
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
US: U. of Michigan Confidence
Trades for Today
GBPCHF: Sell a break below 1.7700
Gold: Buy a break above 962
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Fri, Jun 12 2009, 04:28 GMT
2
0
FX Levels for Today. June 11, 2009
Thu, Jun 11 2009, 03:27 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
What started out to be a slow week is slowly ending in the same way. However, all this could change tonight, given it's Thursday. Alot of the focus will be on the 30Yr Bond auction, following the disappointing 10Yr Note auction overnight.
A poor auction could see the USD firm again. EUR looks to be developing a 1.38-1.43 range, with interim resistance around 1.4080 today. Today looks like being a day of USD strength, stocks down, and gold down.
Crude oil is quietly trading higher without much fanfare, after breaking back through $70.
I'm a Buyer of gold on a pullback towards 920, meanwhile the resistance around 967 is proving hard to get through.
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
US: Retail Sales
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Business Inventories
Trades for Today
EUR: Sell towards 1.4070
GBPJPY: Sell a break below 160.40
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Thu, Jun 11 2009, 03:27 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. June 9, 2009
Tue, Jun 9 2009, 05:05 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
A slow to start to the week so far, with little in the way of economic data.
A report in the UK papers this morning suggests the IMF is calling for the ECB to step-in and cleaning up the European banking system. The article lifted the USD in Asian trade, and caused Gold to slip back to near the overnight lows.
I'm a a Buyer of gold on a pullback towards 920, or if we see a break above 955 today.
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
Trades for Today
AUD: Buy a abreak above 0.7930
Gold: Buy a break above 956.0
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Tue, Jun 9 2009, 05:05 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. June 4, 2009
Thu, Jun 4 2009, 04:55 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Good economic data, and over-bought currencies helped the USD to bounce overnight. The question now is that has the Dollar Index put in a short-term low, or is this bounce just a 2-day respite before the bears takeover again?
With the ECB and BOE meetings tonight im looking for no rate cuts but perhaps some comments about the recent USD weakness. This could see the EUR and GBP come off further later today.
Gold also suffered from profit-taking as traders got edgy as we approached the $1000 mark. Support will be around 960, but this pullback could extend to around 945.
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
UK: BOE Meeting
EU: ECB Meeting
US: Weekly Jobless
Trades for Today
EUR: Sell a break below 1.4100
NZD: Sell moves towards 0.6380
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Thu, Jun 4 2009, 04:55 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. June 2, 2009
Tue, Jun 2 2009, 04:43 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Good economic data, and over-bought currencies helped the USD to bounce overnight. The question now is that has the Dollar Index put in a short-term low, or is this bounce just a 2-day respite before the bears takeover again?
Gold also suffered from profit-taking as traders got edgy as we approached the $1000 mark. Support will be around 960, but this pullback could extend to around 945.
Australia's central bank as expected, left rates unchanged today. While commodities remain firm and aussie data remains positive, the AUD will find eager buyers on any sort of dip. The upside target remains 0.8400, while support can be found at 0.8000, followed by 0.7800.
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
US: Pending Home Sales
Trades for Today
EUR: Sell a break below 1.4140
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Tue, Jun 2 2009, 04:43 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. June 1, 2009
Mon, Jun 1 2009, 02:00 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The early part of the week will see the USD remain pressured with alot of the focus on the FOMC. We might see a bounce late in the week ahead of payrolls data on Friday.
How long do you think the Europeans and the Asians will let their currency appreciate against the greenback before intervening?
Gold has continued to power in Asian trade today, starting to look too hot as we approach the $1000 mark.
For those interested, I will be presenting webinars for FX Street every Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
EU: PMI
US: Personal Income
US: PCE Deflator
US: ISM
Trades for Today
AUDJPY: Sell a break below 7560
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Mon, Jun 1 2009, 02:00 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. May 28, 2009
Thu, May 28 2009, 02:36 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Overnight, we saw the USD try to stage a fight back as stocks gave up Tuesday's gains. US Treasury yields also spiked, adding to the weakness in stocks and placing US debt issues under the spotlight again.
The whole world is now talking/writing about how the USD is going to go into meltdown and that the US government isnt too concerned. Either this will be self-fulfilling prophecy or most of the market will be caught with their pants down. Secondly, how long do you think the Europeans and the Asians will let their currency appreciate against the greenback before intervening.
Thursdays tend to be moving day in the markets, and i expect today to be no exception.
For those interested, I will be presenting a webinar for FX Street on Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
EU: Consumer Confidence
US: Weekly Jobless
US: New Home Sales
US: Durable Goods
Trades for Today
GBP: Sell a break below 1.5940
Email for details regarding stop-loss and profit targets. You can also now get me on twitter at:
http://twitter.com/forexplus
Published on Thu, May 28 2009, 02:36 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. May 27, 2009
Wed, May 27 2009, 05:05 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Another slow week so far, what with the holiday on Monday and unpredictable trade overnight.
The whole world is now talking/writing about how the USD is going to go into meltdown and that the US government isnt too concerned. Either this will be self-fulfilling prophecy or most of the market will be caught with their pants down. Secondly, how long do you think the Europeans and the Asians will let their currency appreciate against the greenback before intervening.
We have also seen a continuation of the move towards selling the USD for various reasons, and seen the re-emergence of the old inverse relationship between Gold and the USD. It wouldnt be such a bad thing for this to continue - trading would become a little easier.
For those interested, I will be presenting a webinar for FX Street on Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
US: House Price Index
US: Existing Home Sales
US: Crude Inventories
Trades for Today
Not much on at the moment
Published on Wed, May 27 2009, 05:05 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. May 21, 2009
Thu, May 21 2009, 02:21 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Hands up anyone who has made any decent money this week!!
This week we've seen the FX market move away from being linked to movements in stocks. We have also seen a move towards selling the USD for various reasons, and seen the re-emergence of the old inverse relationship between Gold and the USD. It wouldnt be such a bad thing for this to continue - trading would become a little easier.
A pullback in the GBP and AUD looks to be on the cards today following another strong session overnight. Similarly, after being sold for most of the week, the USD might find some favour today. Weakness in stocks looks to continue today, and so this could lend some support to the USD also.
The USD weakness overnight, and firmness in the EUR helped Gold to break above 936, and now 940 as I write. I still think we'll see a pullback, but perhaps not below 900 now.
For those interested, I will be presenting a webinar for FX Street tomorrow at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
UK: Retail Sales
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Leading Indicators
US: Philly Fed.
US: Geithner speaks
Trades for Today
GBPCHF: Sell a break below 1.7280
Please email me for details on profit target and stops.
Published on Thu, May 21 2009, 02:21 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. May 20, 2009
Wed, May 20 2009, 02:49 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
It's turning into another tough week of trading. The markets are traipsing around at the moment, with little in the way of direction, and providing little reasoning for any of the moves.
So far in Asia today we've seen the USD firm up and the EUR come back to test support around 1.3580. Looking ahead, and I expect this mood to continue into London. The AUD has also come back under 0.7700 after an overnight buying spree.
Precious metals are sticking their heads higher, but could remain rangebound if the USD firms. Gold needs to break above 936 to suggest we're heading higher and SIlver needs to break above 14.40.
For those interested, I will be presenting a webinar for FX Street on Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
UK: BOE Minutes
US: FOMC Minutes
US: Geithner testify's on TARP
Trades for Today
GBP: Sell a break below 1.5440
Please email me for details on profit target and stops.
Published on Wed, May 20 2009, 02:49 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. May 19, 2009
Tue, May 19 2009, 02:04 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
It could be yet another nothing week coming up. There's little in the way of economic data out of the US, the highlights being housing starts data tonight and FOMC minutes tomorrow.
Overnight we saw some strange action - stocks went up, the USD went down, but Gold also went down, suggesting we saw a move out of the safe haven play.
Gold and silver's break down last night hasn't continued thus far in Asian trade today with both popping back up to around 921 abd 13.90 respectively. I remain short both, but I'd like to see the resistance in Gold at 924 hold.
For those interested, I will be presenting a webinar for FX Street on Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
UK: CPI
UK: RPI
US: Housing Starts
Trades for Today
Gold: Sell strength towards 922 and /or a break below 913
Please email me for details on profit target and stops.
Published on Tue, May 19 2009, 02:04 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. May 18, 2009
Mon, May 18 2009, 02:06 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
It could be yet another nothing week coming up. There's little in the way of economic data out of the US, the highlights being housing data tomorrow and FOMC minutes tomorrow. FX movements remain linked to the stock market, and so far today Asian markets are lower, suggesting stocks could start the week on the back foot. This would translate to some USD strength as traders move out of risk. This also leads to weakness in the metals.
The precious metals continue to lack any excitement. Gold is trapped in the 920-930 range and a move either way will determine the market's direction. Meanwhile, silver is trapped between 13.80-14.20.
For those interested, I will be presenting a webinar for FX Street on Friday at 0500GMT. Hope to see/hear you there.
Data for Today
EU: Trade Balance
US: Geithner speaking
US: NAHB Housing Market Index
Trades for Today
Gold: Sell a break below 921.0
Silver: Sell a break below 13.65
Please email me for details on profit target and stops.
Published on Mon, May 18 2009, 02:06 GMT
2
0
FX Levels for Today. May 15, 2009
Fri, May 15 2009, 02:26 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
A bit of a nothing week really. Once again any FX movements are linked to the stock market, and as we come into a swag of US data today, the stocks could go either way dpending on whether or not the data shows any sign of inflation appearing on the horizon.
The precious metals continue to lack any excitement. Gold is trapped in the 920-930 range and a move either way will determine the market's direction. Meanwhile, silver is trapped between 13.80-14.30.
Data for Today
EU: GDP
US: CPI
US: Empire State
US: Industrial Production
US: U. of Michigan
Trades for Today
Gold: Sell a break below 919.50
Please email me for details on profit target and stops.
Last month my clients made nearly 900 pips. Please email me to see how you can become involved.
Published on Fri, May 15 2009, 02:26 GMT
2
0
FX Levels for Today. May 12, 2009
Tue, May 12 2009, 04:38 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Nothing to report today. The markets have been lacklustre for most of the day, unable to decide if stocks should add to yesterday's losses or have a bounce. As such, the FX market cant decide if the USD should bounce, or the dip in the EUR, GBP and AUD should be bought.
Later today, we have the Australian budget released - not a big deal for the rest of the world i know, but a deficit of more than $70 billion would be bearish for the AUD.
The precious metals continue to lack any excitement. Gold is battling to get above 920, and the longer it struggles the greater the chance of a move under 900. Meanwhile, silver is trying to get above $14 to add to last weeks gains.
Data for Today
UK: Trade Balance
UK: Industrial Production
US: Trade Balance
Trades for Today
Gold: Buy a break above 918
Please email me for details on profit target and stops.
Last month my clients made nearly 900 pips. Please email me to see how you can become involved.
Published on Tue, May 12 2009, 04:38 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. May 11, 2009
Mon, May 11 2009, 04:35 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
I dont think I could have gotten it any more wrong on Friday. Fortunately it wasn't too costly.
The USD collapse on Friday, coupled with the EUR roaring thru its 200 DMA would suggest that we could see some sort of rebound this week. I guess it's all stock market dependant at the moment.
The precious metals were disappointing on Friday, given the rally against the USD. Silver is still leading the way up, which suggests that we're closer to a pullback.
Data for Today
GER: CPI
US: Bernanke speaks on Stress Tests
Trades for Today
Sell AUDJPY under 75.20
Please email me for details on profit target and stops.
Last month my clients made nearly 900 pips. Please email me to see how you can become involved.
Published on Mon, May 11 2009, 04:35 GMT
1
1
FX Levels for Today. May 8, 2009
Fri, May 8 2009, 04:59 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Surely this USD Index can find some friends down here around 84.00. Similarly, tonight I can see the stocks coming off, along with the precious metals and a move out the risk plays again.
Not much doing before Payrolls today, expecting 600k job losses
Data for Today
US: NFP
Trades for Today
Sell AUDJPY under 74.20
Please email me for details on profit target and stops.
Last month my clients made nearly 900 pips. Please email me to see how you can become involved.
Published on Fri, May 8 2009, 04:59 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. May 7, 2009
Thu, May 7 2009, 02:20 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Surely this USD Index can find some friends down here around 84.00. If I ever give a trade in USDCAD again please shoot me!! I have finally discovered why it's called "the looney"
ECB and BOE meetings today. The ECB is the one to watch for any sign of credit easing in Trichet's post-meeting comments.
Aussie employment data came out today, much stronger than expected - looks like the aussies won't be cutting rates again in a hurry. Meanwhile, last night's ADP report suggests tomorrow's non-farm payrolls will be a little more positive than first thought.
Gold is looking good again, despite the USD coming off, suggesting the risk money is starting to get back into the market.
Data for Today
UK: BOE Meeting
EU: ECB Meeting
US: Weekly Jobless
Trades for Today
Gold: Buy dips to 908
Please email me for details on profit target and stops.
Last month my clients made over 900 pips. Please email me to see how you can become involved.
Published on Thu, May 7 2009, 02:20 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. May 5, 2009
Tue, May 5 2009, 04:36 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Surely this USD Index can find some friends down here around 84.00.
Please dont allow yourself to be taken in by all the talk on CNBC about this being the recovery rally, and that the low is in place. Admittedly, this rally has some more upside, but then it wil turn on a dime and catch all those naive bulls out.
Big week for news - RBA has just left rates unchanged and made no mention of keeping rates low, the ECB and BOE is expected to keep rates unchanged, and on Friday we have US employment data.
Gold is looking good again, despite the USD coming off, suggesting the risk money is starting to get back into the market.
Data for Today
US: ISM
US: Bernanke testifying
US: Fed members speaking
Trades for Today
GBPJPY: Sell a break of 147.70
Gold: Buy a break of 909
Please email me for details on profit target and stops.
Last month my clients made over 900 pips. Please email me to see how you can become involved.
Published on Tue, May 5 2009, 04:36 GMT
1
1
FX Levels for Today. April 30, 2009
Thu, Apr 30 2009, 03:40 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Nice move up in stocks overnight, despite shockingly bad GDP data - this rally has the stench of a dead cat!!
No surprises from the Fed, but what about their statement that the pace of the contraction is slower than first thought? Who talks like that? Why not be clear and say that the contraction hasnt been as bad as first thought?
Gold battled its way back upto 900, but will continue to struggle in coming days. I see that Dec 500 Puts are selling for US$70 - a cheap play if you agree with me that there's no inflation around.
Data for Today
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Employment Cost Index
Trades for Today
AUDJPY: Sell a break of 70.20
Please email me for details on profit target and stops. We picked up 80 pips on GBPJPY yesterday, but as my wife often tells me - "I got out too early".
This month my clients have made over 900 pips. Please email me to see how you can become involved.
Published on Thu, Apr 30 2009, 03:40 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. April 29, 2009
Wed, Apr 29 2009, 02:29 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
It seems as though the markets have taken the swine flu story in their stride. There was a hint of a snifle on Monday in Asia, but confidence remains largely intact in the stock market. Im just about looking for stocks to make some gains today actually.
Highlights of today's calendar include: FOMC, US GDP, RBNZ meeting.
Gold looks as though it may have caught the swine flu, and it doesnt seem as though the medication is working just yet.
Im looking for the Yen crosses to continue their recovery today, in line with gains in stocks.
Data for Today
EU: Consumer Confidence
US: GDP
US: FOMC
NZ: RBNZ Meeting
Trades for Today
GBPJPY: Buy a break of 142.30
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
This month my clients have made over 800 pips. Please email me to see how you can become involved.
Published on Wed, Apr 29 2009, 02:29 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. April 27, 2009
Mon, Apr 27 2009, 02:53 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
This morning the markets have opened in a swine flu frenzy. Dow futures are down, and there's a run into gold and safe haven currencies. it should be interesting to see how this story plays out later today as the media push the panic button.
Highlights of this week's calendar include: FOMC (Wed), US GDP (Wed), RBNZ meeting (Thurs).
Gold remains stable this morning on the back of the flu story, but could easily works its way back down to around 908 where the buyers will be waiting.
Data for Today
Trades for Today
GBPCHF: Buy a break of 1.6730
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
Published on Mon, Apr 27 2009, 02:53 GMT
9
0
FX Levels for Today. April 22, 2009
Tue, Apr 21 2009, 03:23 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
As long as the FX market takes its lead from the stock market, it will remain hard to trade. Previously, if the USD came off, EUR and Gold would firm. These days, if stocks come off then the USD and Gold firm, while the EUR etc drop away.
Highlights of the economic calander for the remainder of the week include: BOE Minutes, and US Housing data.
Gold broke above 890 overnight and got me interested before slipping away. I remain interested, but i guess it's all dependant on where stock markets go today.
Data for Today
Trades for Today
EUR: Buy a break of 1.3010
Gold: Buy dips to 880
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
Published on Tue, Apr 21 2009, 03:23 GMT
2
0
FX Levels for Today. April 20, 2009
Mon, Apr 20 2009, 01:48 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
A new week brings new opportunities. Lets see if stocks can sustain their bid-tone from last week. If not, we could see further downside in EUR, and gold. The AUD remained strong on Friday, but is showing signs of tiring - jump onto a break under 0.7140.
Highlights of the economic calander this week include: UK and AUS CPI, BOE Minutes, and US Housing data.
Gold's fortune's are linked to the stock market these days, as opposed to the USD. I'd be a reluctant buyer at these levels, given that we could easily slip to the 850's.
Data for Today
US: Leading Indicators
Trades for Today
AUD: Sell a break of 0.7135
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
Published on Mon, Apr 20 2009, 01:48 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. April 17, 2009
Fri, Apr 17 2009, 04:33 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
What a rotten week for trading. Across the board, markets have been choppy, and offered little in the way of sustained moves, or moves which occurred on the back of sound reasoning.
I sense that stocks could take a bit of a breather tonight as traders look to take some profit off the table ahead of the weekend. This should see Yen crosses come off.....finally.
Gold struggled to break above $900 this week, and the longs ran out of patience overnight, pushing it back under 880. It might manage to hang in there tonight if stocks weaken, but next week we'll see gold get pushed under 850.
Data for Today
US: U. of Michigan Confidence
Trades for Today
AUD: Sell a break of 0.7135
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
Published on Fri, Apr 17 2009, 04:33 GMT
5
0
FX Levels for Today. April 14, 2009
Tue, Apr 14 2009, 02:04 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Over the Easter break we saw the USD weaken on the back of a light volume rally in the Euro and renewed optimism heading into the US Earnings season.
Lots of data out of the US this week covering inflation, retails sales, and manufacturing.
The Yen crosses looked vulnerable last week, but managed to hold in there. Perhaps they'll run out of luck this week, to be led lower by USDJPY. It could be a case of "buy the rumour, sell the fact" - Yen crosses rally on talk of good earnings, but then come off with stocks when the earnings results disappoint.
Gold has thus far managed to hold the lows of 865, and has moved back over 890 overnight, suggesting we could see more upside this week. I'd be happy to establish a small long position here with the stops below 865 for the time being.
Data for Today
US: PPI
US: Business Inventories
US: Retail Sales
Trades for Today
AUD: Buy dips to 0.7280
Gold: Buy around 890-895
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
Published on Tue, Apr 14 2009, 02:04 GMT
2
0
FX Levels for Today. April 9, 2009
Thu, Apr 9 2009, 02:14 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
What a nothing week this has turned out to be! We could even get a lead from the stocks.
I cant see much changing today, going into the Easter weekend, but Monday could be interesting with light volumes likely in the Asian session.
The Yen crosses looked vulnerable this week, but managed to hold in there. Perhaps they'll run out of luck next week, to be led lower by USDJPY.
The metals are continue to look a little sick, given the move away from the safe-haven trade in gold and a lack of direction this week. This week's low in Gold around 865 needs to hold, and we need to get back above 895 before we can think about getting long again.
Data for Today
GER: CPI
UK: PPI
UK: BOE Meeting
US: Trade Balance
US: Weekly Jobless
Trades for Today
EURGBP: Buy a break above 0.9060
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
Published on Thu, Apr 9 2009, 02:14 GMT
10
1
FX Levels for Today. April 7, 2009
Tue, Apr 7 2009, 04:41 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Overnight we saw the USD firm back up again after slipping last week. My feeling is that we could see this continue today, particularly against the GBP.
I cant see much on the economic calendar this week that is going to move the market, in which case we'll probably take our lead from the stockmarket.
The RBA cut rates in AUS today by 25bps. Some had expected a 50bps cut, leading to the AUD drifting lower pre-announcement, but now is back above 0.7100.
The metals are looking a little sick, given the move away from the safe-haven trade in gold, but i think we might be close to a bottom in gold soon. Stay tuned.
Data for Today
UK: Industrial Production
EU: GDP
Trades for Today
GBPJPY: Sell a break of 147.50
USDJPY: Sell a break below 99.60
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
Published on Tue, Apr 7 2009, 04:41 GMT
2
0
FX Levels for Today. April 2, 2009
Thu, Apr 2 2009, 03:55 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD showed signs of weakness overnight, despite good housing and ISM data, but a poor ADP employment report. The weakness should continue tonight
The ECB meeting tonight will be watched closely, but most attention will be on the G20 (i dont why), and also the possibility that we'll get a ruling on the Mark-to-Market rule in the US.
Gold is trying to break higher, the overnight action is suggesting that tonight could be the night we see a move back up towards 950.
Data for Today
EU: ECB Meeting
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Factory Orders
Trades for Today
JPY: Sell a break of 98.20
Gold: Buy a break above 933.0
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
Published on Thu, Apr 2 2009, 03:55 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. April 1, 2009
Wed, Apr 1 2009, 04:24 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Overnight, the USD weakened slightly on soft data, but managed to hold its ground by the end of NY.
Tonight's manufacturing, housing and ADP employment data from the US should give us a good indication of how the US economy is progressing. I can see it keeping the USD pressured heading into the end of the week.
Gold is trying to break higher, but we're not out of the woods till we break above Monday's high.
Data for Today
EU: PMI Manufacturing
US: ADP Employment Report
US: ISM
US: Pending Home Sales
Trades for Today
JPY: Sell around 98.50
EURAUD: Buy around 1.9200
Gold: Buy a break above 933.0
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
Published on Wed, Apr 1 2009, 04:24 GMT
4
0
FX Levels for Today. March 31, 2009
Tue, Mar 31 2009, 04:59 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Attention is starting to turn towards Thursday's ECB meeting. Additionally, we have a good selection of data out of the US this week which should give us an indication of the USD's outlook for the next little while.
Asian trade today has seen the USD come off some more, as the EUR GBP and AUD continue to graft back some of yesterday's lost ground - look for this to continue through the day.
Gold hit the trendline support again overnight in the low 900's, but we're not out of the woods till we break above yesterday's high.
Data for Today
EU: CPI estimate
US: Chicago PMI
US: Consumer Confidence
Trades for Today
EUR: Buy here arouund 1.3245
GBP: Buy here around 1.4290
Gold: Buy a break above 933.0
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
Published on Tue, Mar 31 2009, 04:59 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. March 30, 2009
Mon, Mar 30 2009, 03:09 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Good data out of the US and bad data out of the UK on Friday helped the USD end the week in positive territory.
A fairly uneventful start to the week so far in Asian trade today, im not expecting this to change much into London and NY given that there's little economic data out today. Thursday's ECB meeting will start to come into focus shortly, with most of the market looking for a cut as the ECB tries to keep ahead of the curve.
Gold remains under pressure after breaking under 925 on Friday. The 930 level should cap any advance today, while 915 will be the first key support level.
Data for Today
Trades for Today
EUR: Sell strength towards 1.3320
JPY: Buy dips to 97.50
Gold: Sell moves towards 930
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
Published on Mon, Mar 30 2009, 03:09 GMT
3
0
FX Levels for Today. March 27, 2009
Fri, Mar 27 2009, 01:19 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The US had some good eco data overnight, helping the USD to edge higher, and helping stocks to register a 20% rally from their lows. By the way, this month's rally in US stocks is the biggest percentage monthly gain since 1974.
A slew of eco data out today, particularly in the US, should set us up for some more gains in the USD and stocks heading into the weekend.
The market cant seem to work out what is to become of gold in this current sharemarket rally. For the last day or so it's been stuck around 935 - i reckon if it breaks below 925 we're heading for 900, but if we break above 945, we're heading for 980.
Data for Today
UK: GDP
US: PCE Deflator
US: Personal Income and Outlays
US: U. of Michigan
Trades for Today
EUR: Sell strength towards 1.3600
GBP: Sell strength towards 1.4520
Gold: Buy a break above 946
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
Published on Fri, Mar 27 2009, 01:19 GMT
2
0
FX Levels for Today. March 25, 2009
Wed, Mar 25 2009, 03:31 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
After the initial euphoria, the markets are now all confused as to what the Geitner plan means for stocks. Similarly, the market is asking do we need to buy gold for protection or can we jump back into risk.
In Asian trade today we've seen some mixed action - the Yen strengthened early before coming off by the middle of the day. The EUR, GBP and AUD remain pressured against the USD.
Gold needs to hold 925 and get back above 935 to suggest the weakness is over for this week, otherwise we're heading back under 900.
Data for Today
GER: IFO
US: Durable Goods
US: New Home Sales
Trades for Today
EUR: Sell strength towards 1.3520
Gold: Buy a break above 936
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
Published on Wed, Mar 25 2009, 03:31 GMT
2
0
FX Levels for Today. March 24, 2009
Tue, Mar 24 2009, 03:36 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The stocks liked what they heard overnight out of the US, but currencies remained stable. The USD wasnt sold-off too heavily, meanwhile the EUR was unable to make too much headway towards the 1.40 mark.
Elsewhere, gold came off as traders felt little need for a safe haven investment, and remains under pressure today.
In Asian trade today we've seen the GBP rally strongly above 1.4600, while the Yen has weakened across the board. The AUD had a crack at 0.7100 before backing away, but will eventually break thru before hitting a wall around 0.7200.
Data for Today
EU: PMI
UK: CPI
US: Geitner and Bernanke testify on AIG
US: Richmond Fed Index
Trades for Today
GBP: Sell a break of 1.4530
Gold: Sell strength towards 950
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
Published on Tue, Mar 24 2009, 03:36 GMT
2
0
FX Levels for Today. March 23, 2009
Mon, Mar 23 2009, 04:11 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Whippy session on Friday saw the early EUR and Gold sellers stopped out, only to be frustrated by a selloff in the middle of the London session.
The market's waiting for yet another package from the US Treasury Secretary (i'd write his name but i cant spell it) tonight. Early speculation in Asia seems to suggest that it will be liked by the equity market, and could be positive for the Yen crosses. I however think that this could be a sucker rally - sort of "buy the rumour, sell the fact".
Data for Today
US: Leading Indicators
US: Existing Home Sales
Trades for Today
JPY: Sell around 96.60
Gold: Buy dips to 935
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
Published on Mon, Mar 23 2009, 04:11 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. March 19, 2009
Thu, Mar 19 2009, 01:46 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Who said the market was boring this week? For those who may have missed it yesterday, this is what i said: "FOMC tonight. They cant cut rates further, but like the BOE and BOJ they'll probably announce plans to purchase debt (print more money). This would be negative for the USD". I wish I could predict my wife this well!!
Looking for this negative USD tone to continue into the weekend. No doubt we'll see some profit taking today in EUR, GBP and Gold, but any dips will be shallow. There's alot of traders who would have missed the train overnight, keen to get on-board at the next stop.
Data for Today
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Leading Indicators
US: Philly Fed
Trades for Today
EUR: Buy dips to 1.3420-30
AUD: Buy dips to 0.6720
Gold: Buy dips to 925
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
Published on Thu, Mar 19 2009, 01:46 GMT
2
0
FX Levels for Today. March 18, 2009
Wed, Mar 18 2009, 01:50 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
What a boring couple of days it has been so far this week. The EUR continues to hover around 1.3000, GBP around 1.4000, and JPY around 98.00. The only real movers have been AUD and Gold.
Interesting to see gold come off overnight despite the EUR firming. USD was a slight bit firm, but gold seems to be being sold off because traders are thinking risk is a good thing again, and dont have much demand for safety this week. The old stroy of gold going up when the USD comes off isnt really at the front of many traders' minds at the moment.
FOMC tonight. They cant cut rates further, but like the BOE and BOJ they'll probably announce plans to purchase debt (print more money). This would be negative for the USD
Data for Today
UK: BOE Minutes
US: CPI
US: FOMC
Trades for Today
NZDJPY: Sell a break below 51.85
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
Published on Wed, Mar 18 2009, 01:50 GMT
5
0
FX Levels for Today. March 16, 2009
Mon, Mar 16 2009, 01:19 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
A new week, and here we go again. The questions being asked are: can US stocks build on last week's gains, can the EUR continue to trade higher, and can gold retest 950? The answer to all 3 questions is NO!
Alot of data out this week, particularly in the US with inflation and manufacturing numbers.
I have nothing further to add today, except to say - see my trade ideas below.
Data for Today
EU: CPI
EU: Employment
US: Empire State Manufacturing
US: Industrial Prodn. and Cap-U
Trades for Today
CAD: Buy a break above 1.2790
Gold: Sell a break below 918
Please email me for details on profit target and stops
Published on Mon, Mar 16 2009, 01:19 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. March 12, 2009
Thu, Mar 12 2009, 02:47 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD weakened overnight, getting all the bears to come out and proclaim that this is the start of the big retracement of the greenback. I doubt it.
The NZ central bank cut rates by 50bps today, and hinted that there maybe more to come. Meanwhile, the aussie economy created jobs last month (possibly the only economy in the world), but the unemployment rate still went up - go figure!
Nice bounce in the precious metals overnight, but how long can it last. Im thinking gold finds it hard to get back through 920 today, and silver struggles to get above 12.90.
Data for Today
EU: Industrial Production
EU: PPI
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Retail Sales
Trades for Today
GBPJPY: Buy a break above 135.30
EURGBP: Sell a break below 0.9220
Published on Thu, Mar 12 2009, 02:47 GMT
2
1
FX Levels for Today. March 10, 2009
Tue, Mar 10 2009, 02:58 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Choppy session overnight, except for gold though which sold off - giving back alot of last week's gains. I think the market will have another crack at breaking gold under 900, and this time they could well succeed.
So far today we've seen gold along with EUR and AUD try to recover some of last night's lost ground, but i think this move could be used to sell into as the USD coninues to firm later today.
AUD under 0.6300 would bring in the sellers, while the upside for today is limited to 0.6400. EUR will struggle to break above 1.2720 today. Yen crosses to continue trading a choppy range as USDJPY tries to break above 99.20
Data for Today
Trades for Today
JPY: Sell a break below 98.60
CAD: Sell a break below 1.2920
Published on Tue, Mar 10 2009, 02:58 GMT
5
0
FX Levels for Today. March 9, 2009
Mon, Mar 9 2009, 02:00 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Friday's US employment data came out fairly close to expectations, prompting the USD to weaken as traders saw the news as meaning things arent as bad as first thought. An unbelievable interpretation, when the result was that over 651k people lost their jobs, and unemployment jumped to over 8%.
Gold continued its recovery after being over sold earlier in the week. In early trade today it's holding onto Friday's gains, but if it breaks under 930 we could see some further weakness.
EUR is trying to break above 1.2700 today, but will run into selling pressure around 1.2750, and again at 1.2800.
Data for Today
Trades for Today
JPY: Buy a break above 98.55
Gold: Buy a break above 946
Published on Mon, Mar 9 2009, 02:00 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. March 5, 2009
Thu, Mar 5 2009, 01:18 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
I think the most noticeable event this week has been the de-coupling of gold from the USD as a safe haven trade. Gold has come off in line with stocks as speculators look to liquidate longs, perhaps to meet margin calls on stocks.
Overnight, things got even stranger - the USD came off, and so did gold. It almost like the market is selling gold thinking the good times are back, and we dont need a safe haven. This is perfect for those looking to get long gold, because these narrow minded shot-term focused traders are going to be caught with their pants down.
Tonight's ECB and BOE meetings will be closely watched for the post-meeting comments. Both are expected to cut rates, but the reasoning will be keenly looked at.
Data for Today
EU: ECB Meeting
UK: BOE Meeting
US: Weekly Jobless
Trades for Today
GBPJPY: Sell a break below 139.90
CAD: Sell a break below 1.2710
EUR: Buy a break above 1.2680
Published on Thu, Mar 5 2009, 01:18 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. March 4, 2009
Wed, Mar 4 2009, 01:39 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
I think the most noticeable event this week has been the de-coupling of gold from the USD as a safe haven trade. Gold has come off in line with stocks as speculators look to liquidate longs, perhaps to meet margin calls on stocks. Also, gold is again moving in line with the EUR- atleast on the downside that is.
The big data for the week kicks off today with the ADP jobs report in the US. This should give us a good clue as to what to expect in Friday's payrolls data. Tomorrow is ECB and BOE meeting day.
AUS GDP was just released showing a contraction in the Dec Qtr. Looks like Down Under's about to catch the recession as well. Makes you think what was the RBA thinking yesterday when they left rates unchanged. I did however tip a 25bps cut.
Data for Today
US: ADP
US: ISM
US: Beige Book
Trades for Today
GBPJPY: Buy a break above 138.70
Published on Wed, Mar 4 2009, 01:39 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. March 3, 2009
Mon, Mar 2 2009, 23:48 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The main story remained the bear market in stocks, and as CNBC put it the "destruction of wealth". The main point of last night was that gold failed to firm, in line with the USD, with the safe-haven trade losing some favour overnight. It woudl appear that margin calls in stocks led to some of the selling in gold.
The yen looks to have stabilised following its weaknes slast week. The EUR looks like it's headed lower after Friday's weakness, and continued USD strength .
Elsewhere, the AUD remains pressured, targeting atleast 0.6240. The RBA meets today with the tipsters split on the result. I think they'll go with 25bps cut and a wait and see approach to further cuts.
Data for Today
US: Pending Home Sales
Trades for Today
JPY: Sell a break below 96.90
EUR: Sell a break of 1.2535
Published on Mon, Mar 2 2009, 23:48 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. February 27, 2009
Fri, Feb 27 2009, 01:46 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The Yen's weakness remains all the talk, along with the bear market in stocks, the Obama budget, and the ongoing global banking crisis.
The EUR looks in trouble under 1.2680, meanwhile the Dollar Index looks set for another move towards 90.00 in coming sessions.
Gold weakened again overnight, but traded a fairly volatile range. Looks as though we might see a recovery going into the weekend, but we need to get back above 947 first.
Data for Today
US: Chicago PMI
US: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Trades for Today
JPY: Sell a break below 97.60
Gold: Buy a break above 947.50
Published on Fri, Feb 27 2009, 01:46 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. February 25, 2009
Wed, Feb 25 2009, 02:00 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Its been called the "Bernanke Bounce" - that recovery in US stocks we saw, leading to traders being less risk-averse overnight. The other highlight has been the Yen's meltdown, led by USDJPY which has finally broken through resistance at 95.00.
Gold came off as the safe-haven trade took a rest on the back of firmer stocks, and a weaker USD. The weakness should continue for another day or so as Gold looks to find support around 950. There's a longer-term trendline at 850, but circumstances would have to change dramatically for us to see a move back under 900.
EUR's continuing to recover on the back of this news, as traders go for yield and more risk. More risk means weakness in gold as the need for safety reduces. This week could be reversal week in the USD and gold, atleast till about Thursday and/or when the positive mood of the stockmarket ends.
Data for Today
UK: GDP
US: Existing Home Sales
US: Bernanke Part-2
Trades for Today
CAD: Buy a break above 1.2445, or Sell a break below 1.2420
GBP: Buy a break above 1.4550
GBP/JPY: Sell a break below 139.70
Published on Wed, Feb 25 2009, 02:00 GMT
0
2
FX Levels for Today. February 23, 2009
Mon, Feb 23 2009, 02:50 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Well, the nationalisation of Citibank is the big news today, talk of the government taking a 40% stake. Not bad for the leader of the free world to announce tax cuts for the poor, and tax hikes for the rich, followed by a takeover of the banking system.
The nationalisation policy will have a positive effect in the short-term as the market starts to think this could be a signal that we're near the end of the banking crisis, but later in the week the bears will again take over.
EUR's continuing to recover on the back of this news, as traders go for yield and more risk. More risk means weakness in gold as the need for safety reduces. This week could be reversal week in the USD and gold, atleast till about Thursday and/or when the positive mood of the stockmarket ends.
Data for Today
Trades for Today
USD/CAD: Buy a break above 1.2680
JPY: Buy a break above 94.70
Published on Mon, Feb 23 2009, 02:50 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. February 20, 2009
Fri, Feb 20 2009, 01:46 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The end of another week, mirred by volatility, safe-haven demand, and a lack of trader confidence. US stocks remain the focus with the Dow just 200 points off its lows of Oct-Nov last year. As long as they stay down, the safe haven trade remains in play.
EUR hit the downtrend line overnight at 1.2760, closing back under the 1.2700 handle to remain pressured going into next week.
Look for USDJPY to break above 95.00 next week as the Japanese continue to struggle.
A few more comments about gold taking over from EUR as the second favoured currency after the USD. Maybe a fact, but we'll see gold pullback before the buyers get back on board. The 985-992 area could prove hard to break initially.
Data for Today
US: CPI
Trades for Today
USD/CAD: Buy a break above 1.2680
EUR: Sell into moves towards 1.2710
JPY: Buy a break above 94.70
Gold: Buy a break of 982.0
Published on Fri, Feb 20 2009, 01:46 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. February 19, 2009
Thu, Feb 19 2009, 04:19 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Looking for a bounce tonight in US stocks, EUR, GBP and AUD, leading to a pullback in the over-stretched gold. This is more about short-covering than a reversal of trend, and so cant be expected to last too long. On that basis, im thinking we'll end the week around about today's pre-London levels.
News stories continue to pop-up about debt problems in Eastern Europe, but for the most part will probably become old-hat by the start of next week.
A few more comments about gold taking over from EUR as the second favoured currency after the USD. Maybe a fact, but we'll see gold pullback before the buyers get back on board. The 985-992 area could prove hard to break initially.
Data for Today
US: PPI
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Leading Indicators
US: Philly Fed.
Trades for Today
USD/CAD: Buy a break above 1.2680
GBP/JPY: Buy a break of 134.00
Gold: Buy a break of 993.0
Published on Thu, Feb 19 2009, 04:19 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today. February 17, 2009
Tue, Feb 17 2009, 01:56 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Finally, we see the EUR break under 1.2700, opening the way for an extended move lower. Truth be told, the single currency's been looking vulnerable for a while. Blind Freddy could see this on the chart.
I dont normally comment on the S&P, but a break under 800 (currently at 806) could lead to a larger down move, maybe even a retest of November's lows at 740. I mention this because it would again see the safe-haven trade come into effect, pushing the USD and gold up, and EUR, GBP and AUD down.
Data for Today
UK: CPI
UK: RPI
US: Empire State
Trades for Today
EUR: The 1.2710-30 should now offer strong resistance to any recovery
GBP/JPY: Sell a break below 130.30 or buy a break of 131.50
Gold: Buy a pullback to 926 or a break above 953, targeting 980, followed by a retest of 1030
Published on Tue, Feb 17 2009, 01:56 GMT
4
0
FX Levels for Today. February 16, 2009
Mon, Feb 16 2009, 01:47 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The US is closed tonight, so i'm not expecting too much movement. Having said that, a EUR break under 1.2700 could see a quick slide to 1.2500
Elsewhere, GBP looks supported in the low 1.40's, but any slide in EUR would take GBP down with it.
Lots of data due out this week, it'll be interesting to see if the market pays any attention or continues to focus on the safe-haven trade, based on movements in US stocks.
Gold looks to have failed to sustain its upmove, and appears set for a pullback to 920-930. It's probably for the best given that it didnt too much work in this area on the way up.
Data for Today
Trades for Today
EUR: Buy a dip to 1.2740, with stops below 1.2690, or sell a break under 1.2685.
Gold: Buy a pullback to 926 or a break above 953, targeting 980, followed by a retest of 1030
Published on Mon, Feb 16 2009, 01:47 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. February 12, 2009
Thu, Feb 12 2009, 03:54 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The safe-haven trade continues to remain in favour. We saw this overnight with the USD again firming, and gold following like an obedient puppy.
The key will be to pick when this trade is about to lose favour, similar to when the carry-trade went out of fashion. I think this will happen when market confidence returns, when traders look to go for yield rather than safety, and when inflation pops its head back up.
Gold's break above 930 overnight has people excited for a move to 1030 again, but lets get through 950 first, followed by 980.
Data for Today
US: Retail Sales
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Business Inventories
Trades for Today
EUR: Looks to be developing a base around 1.2850, and the next break back above 1.2960 could see EUR take-off again
Gold: Buy a break above 953, targeting 980, followed by a retest of 1030
Published on Thu, Feb 12 2009, 03:54 GMT
3
0
FX Levels for Today. February 11, 2009
Wed, Feb 11 2009, 02:11 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The overnight announcement from the US Treasury failed to inspire the markets. For the most part, the announcement was big on headlines, but offered little details. As a result, fear and uncertainty again reared it's ugly head, and so the safe haven play was back on.
This trade will continue to gain favour for the rest of the week atleast, particularly against the EUR and AUD, with the USD and gold the big beneficiaries.
Data for Today
US: Trade Balance
US: Treasury announcements
US: Fed members speaking
Trades for Today
EUR: Sell moves towards 1.2900. Today's high of 1.2930 in Asian trade should halt any advance
AUD: Sell moves towards 0.6580
EUR/GBP: Sell around 0.8800, looking for a larger move down towards 0.8400
Gold: Buy a break above 933, targeting 970, followed by a retest of 1030
Published on Wed, Feb 11 2009, 02:11 GMT
6
0
FX Levels for Today. February 10, 2009
Tue, Feb 10 2009, 02:35 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
All eyes are on the US Senate tonight. Senate's expected to vote tonight, along with an announcement from Treasury regarding the bank bail-out.
Asian trade today has seen the EUR sell-off, and the USD and gold go bid on safe-haven demand following a leak that the US had dropped the idea of a "Bad Bank" to take up all the toxic debt. Also, there were unconfirmed reports about Russia trying to re-negotiate its debt with European banks.
A good vote tonight and favourable package from Treasury would give stocks renewed confidence and help to bid up currencies as safe-haven demand diminishes.
Data for Today
US: Bernanke speaks
US: Senate and Treasury announcements
US: Fed members speaking
Trades for Today
EUR: Sell moves towards 1.2920
AUD: Sell moves towards 0.6750
EUR/GBP: Sell around 0.8800, looking for a larger move down towards 0.8400
Published on Tue, Feb 10 2009, 02:35 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. February 9, 2009
Mon, Feb 9 2009, 01:28 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Last week the market decided bad data was positive. Given that we're a long way away from seeing any positive data, this is the next best thing.
We had US housing data, followed by US employment data, both of which would have been seen as negative under normal circumstances, but the market saw the data as not as bad as could have been. This was reason enough for traders to drop their recent aversion to risk, and go looking for yield.
I think this could continue into this week, particularly on the back of the US stimulus package. The EUR is on the verge of breaking out of its recent downtrend. If we can get a break through 1.3000, then look out.
Data for Today
Trades for Today
EUR: Buy breaks above 1.3010
AUD: Buy dips to 0.6680
Gold: Buy dips to 901
Published on Mon, Feb 9 2009, 01:28 GMT
0
1
FX Levels for Today. January 19, 2009
Mon, Jan 19 2009, 02:12 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Looks like the Obama rally began on Friday. Stocks were up, the USD came off, and metsls rose. Even crude managed a positive session on Friday!
The US markets are closed today for Martin Luther King Day. Expect light volumes today, allowing for stop hunters to come into play. Alot of guys would have been caught off guard with Friday's move, and so will be looking to get on board early in the week. Expect dips in EUR, Gold, GBP, AUD to be shallow before we see further gains for the remainder of the week.
Depending on the scale of the dip today and tomorrow, Gold will have support around 833, followed by 827. Maybe look to pick something up around 822. Silver will have support around 11.10, followed by 10.90.
I will be on leave till January 28. There will be no reports until my return.
Data for Today
Trades for Today
EUR: Buy dips to 1.3300
Gold: Buy around 822, stops below 814
Published on Mon, Jan 19 2009, 02:12 GMT
3
0
FX Levels for Today. January 16, 2009
Fri, Jan 16 2009, 01:46 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The market got what it expected with the 50bp cut from the ECB. Trichet's comments left the market confused but for the most part the thought is that the little Frenchman and his friends are living in dreamland and need to wake up soon. The rest of the world is throwing the kitchen sink at this problem, yet the ECB remains content to play at the edges. The post-announcement sell-off in the EUR suggests the market is trying to wake-up the ECB to the problem and looking for another cut next month.
EUR/USD looks to be heading for a bottom around 1.2900-1.2950. Dollar Index continues to defy gravity. I thought it might top out around 84.50 (how wrong was I). This current move could extend upto around 87.00. Having said that, i'd be looking for a short-covering move in the EUR today going into the weekend.
Employment data in AUS came out today, suggesting further job cuts in coming months. The AUD/USD looks vulnerable to further downside under .6560.
Precious metals continue to trade a choppy range, proving hard to work out. They'll remain pressured due to USD strength, and continuing weakness in crude oil. Gold looks headed for the 760-775 level, while silver will take a look under $10 before we see the buyers jumping back in. Ahead of this i think the metals will also see some short-covering heading into the weekend. Gold back up towards 828, and silver to 10.80
Data for Today
US: CPI
US: Industrial Production
US: Capacity Utilisation
US: Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Trades for Today
EUR: Buy a break above 1.3230
Gold: Buy around 818, stops below 814 and profit target around 828
Published on Fri, Jan 16 2009, 01:46 GMT
8
0
FX Levels for Today. January 15, 2009
Thu, Jan 15 2009, 03:30 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The market awaits today's ECB decision, with most traders in the 50bp cut camp. I'm thinking the following: EUR sells off if they cut by 25bps, or by 50bps, but if we get an unexpected 75bp cut the EUR will rally as that signals the ECB have made a decisive call, and will now wait and see if further cuts are required. Anything less suggests another cut is likely next month.
EUR/USD looks to be heading for a bottom around 1.2900-1.2950. Dollar Index continues to defy gravity. I thought it might top out around 84.50 (how wrong was I). This current move could extend upto around 87.00.
Employment data in AUS came out today, suggesting further job cuts in coming months. The AUD/USD looks vulnerable to further downside under .6560.
Precious metals continue to trade a choppy range, proving hard to work out. They'll remain pressured due to USD strength, and continuing weakness in crude oil. Gold looks headed for the 760-775 level, while silver will take a look under $10 before we see the buyers jumping back in.
Data for Today
EU: ECB CPI
EU: ECB meeting
US: PPI
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Philly Fed
US: Empire State Manufacturing
Trades for Today
AUD: Sell a break below 0.6560
Gold: Sell moves towards 827
Silver: Sell moves towards 10.70
Published on Thu, Jan 15 2009, 03:30 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. January 12, 2009
Mon, Jan 12 2009, 04:01 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
So, the USD rallies because the jobs number was bad, but not as bad as expected - go-figure!! Next we'll see the US corporate reporting season come out bad, but not as bad as expected, leading to a rally in stocks.
We should see some follow-on USD buying today as the market starts to focus on the ECB meeting on Thursday. EUR should remain under pressure, going into the meeting with the market expecting a 50bp cut.
The AUD is continuing to give back the gains of earlier this month, with the low 0.6800 now a target. The RBA is still looking to cut rates in Feb/March, and the economic slowdown hasnt fully hit Down Under just yet.
Precious metals continue to trade a choppy range, proving hard to work out. They'll remain pressured due to USD strength, and continuing weakness in crude oil
Data for Today
EU: Trichet speaking
Trades for Today
EUR: 1.3530 should cap any upward move today. On this basis, look to sell in the high 1.34's
AUD/NZD: Sell moves towards 1.1900
Gold: Sell moves towards 855-858
Silver: Sell moves towards 11.30. We'll see 10.80 before we see 11.80 again
Published on Mon, Jan 12 2009, 04:01 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today. January 9, 2009
Fri, Jan 9 2009, 01:57 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The first NFP for '09 today, but given the ADP report from Wednesday, perhaps the surprise value has been taken away from today's data. If so, well we can expect the USD to remain capped, and the EUR to be well supported around 1.3580.
I said earlier in the week that the AUD was staying up stubbornly, but it now seems that the last of the buyers has been filled, and now the market looks like it will struggle to push the AUD above 0.7200 in coming weeks. The RBA is still looking to cut rates in Feb/March, and the economic slowdown hasnt fully hit Down Under just yet.
Precious metals continue to trade a choppy range, proving hard to work out. For today I favour the upside, but it all depends on the data I guess.
Data for Today
US: Non-Farm Payrolls
US: Unemployment
Trades for Today
AUD/NZD: Sell moves towards 1.2000
Gold: Buy dips under 850
Silver: Buy dips under 11.00
Published on Fri, Jan 9 2009, 01:57 GMT
7
0
FX Levels for Today. January 7, 2009
Wed, Jan 7 2009, 04:28 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
A little bit of reversal overnight - EUR sold off again early, but then found buyers under 1.3400, and the Yen crosses popped up on stops, but then fell late as traders took quick profits. I think we might see this move continue for today atleast, but then the reversal will reverse yet again later in the week.
Overall, the pullback in the likes of the EUR shouldnt be too deep, but will give us an opportunity to add to previous longs, setting us up for the Obama rally in Jan/Feb, as stocks rally and the markets again look to buy risk.
The AUD is stubbornly holding onto its gains from last week, despite USD strength elsewhere. The RBA is still looking to cut rates in Feb/March, and the economic slowdown hasnt fully hit Down Under just yet, so this maybe the first dead-cat bounce of '09 we're seeing here.
Data for Today
US: ADP Employment report - a good indicator for Friday's NFP
EU: Trichet speaking
EU: PPI
Trades for Today
EUR: Buy a break above 1.3543
JPY: Sell a break below 93.55, or strength towards 94.00
Gold: Sell moves towards 865
Silver: Buy a break above 11.60
Published on Wed, Jan 7 2009, 04:28 GMT
8
0
FX Levels for Today. January 6, 2009
Tue, Jan 6 2009, 01:54 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The Forex market has begun to return to some form of normality following the holidays. The EUR copped it overnight as speculation swept the market about the ECB cutting rates sooner rather than later. Elsewhere, the Yen crosses continued to show signs of recovery, and has me thinking that they may have put in a low back in Dec, but lets wait and see for further confirmation before throwing any money around.
Overall, the pullback in the likes of the EUR and AUD wont be too deep, but will give us an opportunity to add to previous longs, setting us up for the Obama rally in Jan/Feb, as stocks rally and the markets again look to buy risk.
The AUD has failed to break above 0.7200, and looks as though the New Year's Eve rally maybe running out of steam. Makes sense though - the RBA is still looking to cut rates in Feb/March, and the economic slowdown hasnt fully hit Down Under just yet.
Data for Today
US: ISM
US: Pending Home Sales
US: FOMC Minutes
Trades for Today
AUD: Sell moves towards 0.7160-80
JPY: Buy a break above 94.10
Gold: To be capped around 860 for a little while
Published on Tue, Jan 6 2009, 01:54 GMT
2
0
FX Levels for Today. January 2, 2009
Fri, Jan 2 2009, 02:17 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
As we continue holiday trading, let me just say one thing - STOPS!
No better example than the AUD on December 31, rallying nearly 3 cents in thin trading.
Light volumes are grounds for stop hunters. If you're a breakout trader, be on your toes over the coming couple of weeks. The Middle East is again proving to be a driving force in the markets particularly for the EUR, CHF, and Gold.
Overall, the pullback in the likes of the EUR and AUD wont be too deep, but will give us an opportunity to add to previous longs, setting us up for the Obama rally in Jan/Feb, as stocks rally and the markets again look to buy risk.
Data for Today
US: ISM
Trades for Today
Silver: Buy a break above 11.60, with stops below 11.30. Target of $13
Gold: Ignore the push up to 886 in thin Asian trading today. Look to buy the next break above 884.50
Published on Fri, Jan 2 2009, 02:17 GMT
3
1
FX Levels for Today December 30, 2008
Tue, Dec 30 2008, 02:26 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
As we continue holiday trading, let me just say one thing - STOPS!
Light volumes are grounds for stop hunters. If you're a breakout trader, be on your toes over the coming couple of weeks. The Middle East is again proving to be a driving force in the markets particularly for the EUR, CHF, and Gold.
Overall, the pullback in the likes of the EUR and AUD wont be too deep, but will give us an opportunity to add to previous longs, setting us up for the Obama rally in Jan/Feb, as stocks rally and the markets again look to buy risk.
Data for Today
US: Chicago PMI
US: Consumer Confidence
Trades for Today
AUD/NZD: Sell around 1.1890
Gold: Sell a break below 876.50, stops above 884, targeting 861
Published on Tue, Dec 30 2008, 02:26 GMT
4
0
FX Levels for Today December 29, 2008
Mon, Dec 29 2008, 04:19 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
As we enter the Holidays, let me just say one thing - STOPS!
We saw that in the Gold earlier today as it broke through 881 and rallied to 890. Light volumes are grounds for stop hunters. If you're a breakout trader, be on your toes over the coming couple of weeks.
Overall, the pullback in the likes of the EUR and AUD wont be too deep, but will give us an opportunity to add to previous longs, setting us up for the Obama rally in Jan/Feb, as stocks rally and the markets again look to buy risk.
Data for Today
Trades for Today
AUD/NZD: Sell around 1.1890
Silver: Buy dips to 10.80, with stops below 10.50
Published on Mon, Dec 29 2008, 04:19 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today December 24, 2008
Wed, Dec 24 2008, 01:46 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
As we enter the Holidays, let me just say one thing - STOPS!
For many this is the holiday/festive/silly season, but for traders it's stop season. Light volumes are grounds for stop hunters. If you're a breakout trader, be on your toes over the coming couple of weeks.
Overall, im looking for USD to recover some of the lost ground of the last 7 days given that the fall was rather sharp, and also the fact that the rise in the EUR etc was equally sharp and on little fundamental news. The pullback in the likes of the EUR and AUD wont be too deep, but will give us an opportunity to add to previous longs, setting us up for the Obama rally in Jan/Feb, as stocks rally and the markets again look to buy risk.
I'm looking for EUR to pullback to around 1.3600, AUD to .6650, JPY to move up towards 92.00. Gold will pullback to around 815 if it fails below 830, and silver will be a buy back around 10.10 if it fails below 10.60
Data for Today
US: PCE Deflator
US: Durable Goods
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Crude Oil Inventories
Trades for Today
AUD/NZD: Sell around 1.1940-60
AUD/USD: Sell breaks below 0.6760
EUR: Sell breaks below 1.3900
Silver: Sell strength towards 10.50, with stops above 10.80
Gold: Sell a break below 828, with stops above 832.
Published on Wed, Dec 24 2008, 01:46 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today December 23, 2008
Tue, Dec 23 2008, 02:04 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
As we enter the Holidays, let me just say one thing - STOPS!
For many this is the holiday/festive/silly season, but for traders it's stop season. Light volumes are grounds for stop hunters. If you're a breakout trader, be on your toes over the coming couple of weeks.
Overall, im looking for USD to recover some of the lost ground of the last 7 days given that the fall was rather sharp, and also the fact that the rise in the EUR etc was equally sharp and on little fundamental news. The pullback in the likes of the EUR and AUD wont be too deep, but will give us an opportunity to add to previous longs, setting us up for the Obama rally in Jan/Feb, as stocks rally and the markets again look to buy risk.
I'm looking for EUR to pullback to around 1.3600, AUD to .6650, JPY to move up towards 92.00. Gold will pullback to around 815 if it fails below 830, and silver will be a buy back around 10.10 if it fails below 10.60
Data for Today
GER: GDP
UK: GDP
US: GDP
US: Existing Home Sales
US: U. of Michigan Confidence
Trades for Today
AUD/NZD: Sell around 1.1920-40
AUD/USD: Sell breaks below 0.6760
Silver: Sell a break below 10.55, with stops above 10.85
Gold: Sell a break below 828, with stops above 832.
Published on Tue, Dec 23 2008, 02:04 GMT
10
1
FX Levels for Today December 8, 2008
Mon, Dec 8 2008, 02:56 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Over half-million jobs lost in November, and stocks rally - how do we explain that?
On top of that, the EUR couldnt capitalise on the USD weakness, and commodities failed to take the lead from US stocks. I think we'll see a delayed reaction over the next couple of days as the EUR builds on its support base around 1.2720, and stocks extend their gains from Friday.
The Dollar Index futures contract showing some encouraging signs of impending weakness. I think the recent highs around 87.50 could hold any further upside. A break under 84.50 would confirm the bearish sentiment towards the greenback.
I think starting over the Xmas/NewYear break, we'll see the EUR lead the recovery. The holiday period tends to see light volumes, exaggerated moves, and stops being triggered unceramoniously. When the market sobers up in late January, we'll see the USD decline accelerate as traders get back into risk, start looking for yield again, and stocks recover on the back of Obama's inauguration.
I'll be away for the next couple of days, so the report will return on Thursday.
Data for Today
UK: PPI
UK: Industrial Production
Trades for Today
EUR: Buy dips to 1.2740
JPY: Sell around 93.10
Silver: Hands up who got long at 9.20 as suggested last week? Hold on for 9.90, or trial the stop up if we get thru $10.
Gold: Picked up more on Friday in the mid $750's. Hold now for a move higher in coming months.
Published on Mon, Dec 8 2008, 02:56 GMT
5
0
FX Levels for Today December 5, 2008
Fri, Dec 5 2008, 02:16 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Remember the days when currencies would fall after a rate cut? Especially if the cut was bigger than expected!!
The ECB cuts by 75bps instead of 50bps, and the BOE cuts by 100bps, but the USD weakens, and the EUR rallies thru good resistance at 1.2740.
The Dollar Index futures contract showing some encouraging signs of impending weakness. I think the recent highs around 87.50 could hold any further upside. A break under 84.50 would confirm the bearish sentiment towards the greenback.
US Payrolls tonight, and they're expecting about 300k jobs lost last month. A larger number will see the USD fall, but this could be offset by stocks falling on further recessionary concerns, which will flow onto weaker crude prices and then weaker commodity prices in general.
I think starting over the Xmas/NewYear break, we'll see the EUR lead the recovery. The holiday period tends to see light volumes, exaggerated moves, and stops being triggered unceramoniously. When the market sobers up in late January, we'll see the USD decline accelerate as traders get back into risk, start looking for yield again, and stocks recover on the back of Obama's inauguration.
Have a good weekend all!!
Data for Today
EU: PMI
US: Payrolls and Unemployment
Trades for Today
EUR: Buy dips to 1.2720 pre payrolls, and work a tight stop over payrolls
JPY: Sell around 93.50
Silver: Buy around 9.20, with stops below 8.80.
Gold: I'm happy to hold my longs in this pullback, with the view to adding if we see the mid $750's
Published on Fri, Dec 5 2008, 02:16 GMT
4
0
FX Levels for Today December 4, 2008
Thu, Dec 4 2008, 02:20 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Overnight treading water by the markets suggests players are positioning themselves for Friday's blokbusting employment data. Ahead of Friday though, the markets have the ECB and BOE meetings to contend with today. The market's expecting 25-50bps from the ECB and atleast 100bps from the BOE, but beware of surprises.
The Dollar Index futures contract showing some encouraging signs of impending weakness. I think the recent highs around 87.50 could hold any further upside. A break under 84.50 would confirm the bearish sentiment towards the greenback.
EUR really needs to break thru 1.2740 to suggest we're going higher. If the post meeting comments are not as dovish as expected, look for a quick move thru the mid 1.27's and we're away!!
I think starting over the Xmas/NewYear break, we'll see the EUR lead the recovery. The holiday period tends to see light volumes, exaggerated moves, and stops being triggered unceramoniously. When the market sobers up in late January, we'll see the USD decline accelerate as traders get back into risk, start looking for yield again, and stocks recover on the back of Obama's inauguration.
Data for Today
EU: GDP
EU: ECB Meeting
UK: BOE Meeting
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Factory Orders
Trades for Today
JPY: Sell around 93.50
Silver: Buy around 9.20, with stops below 8.80.
Gold: I'm happy to hold my longs in this pullback, with the view to adding if we see the mid $750's
Published on Thu, Dec 4 2008, 02:20 GMT
10
0
FX Levels for Today December 3, 2008
Wed, Dec 3 2008, 02:38 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Overnight treading water by the markets suggests players are positioning themselves for Friday's blokbusting employment data. Ahead of Friday though, the markets have the ECB and BOE meetings to contend with tomorrow. The EUR's well-bid tone suggests the market's not expecting a rate cut this week, but weirder things have happened this year i guess.
The Dollar Index futures contract showing some encouraging signs of impending weakness. I think the recent highs around 87.50 could hold any further upside. A break under 84.50 would confirm the bearish sentiment towards the greenback.
EUR really needs to break thru 1.2740 to suggest we're going higher. Maybe a too big an ask before the ECB meeting tomorrow.
I think starting over the Xmas/NewYear break, we'll see the EUR lead the recovery. The holiday period tends to see light volumes, exaggerated moves, and stops being triggered unceramoniously. When the market sobers up in late January, we'll see the USD decline accelerate as traders get back into risk, start looking for yield again, and stocks recover on the back of Obama's inauguration.
Data for Today
EU: PMI
EU: Retail Sales
US: ADP employment report - will give a good indication of Friday's number
US: ISM
US: Beige Book
Trades for Today
EUR: Sell rallies towards 1.2740-60
JPY: Sell around 94.50
Silver: Buy around 9.20, with stops below 8.80.
Gold: I'm happy to hold my longs in this pullback, with the view to adding if we see the mid $750's
Published on Wed, Dec 3 2008, 02:38 GMT
4
0
FX Levels for Today December 2, 2008
Tue, Dec 2 2008, 04:54 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
As expected, the markets turned overnight, however i didnt expect such a sharp turn. We can expect this panic to extend into today before we see a mid-week turn-around leading into US employment on Friday.
The Dollar Index futures contract will struggle to regain the 88 handle in this current bounce. A break under 84.50 would turn sentiment bearish towards the greenback.
Today, the EUR cold extend its softness to the low 1.2500 area, while the AUD is good buying in the mid 0.6300's.
I think starting over the Xmas/NewYear break, we'll see the EUR lead the recovery. The holiday period tends to see light volumes, exaggerated moves, and stops being triggered unceramoniously. When the market sobers up in late January, we'll see the USD decline accelerate as traders get back into risk, start looking for yield again, and stocks recover on the back of Obama's inauguration.
Data for Today
EU: PPI
US: Consumer Confidence
Trades for Today
EUR: Buy dips towards 1.2530 today. I think we'll see a dip today before a bounce
AUD: Good longer-term buying opportunity in the low 0.6300's
Silver: Will run into sellers around 9.60 today. Im expecting a retest of $9 in coming days
Gold: I'm happy to hold my longs in this pullback, with the view to adding if we see the mid $750's
Published on Tue, Dec 2 2008, 04:54 GMT
8
0
FX Levels for Today December 1, 2008
Mon, Dec 1 2008, 03:27 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The new month and week will see the USD regain some of last week's gains, but this just gives us a better opportunity to short it.
The Dollar Index futures contract is trading around 85.60 currently, a break under 84.50 would give us confirmation.
Today, the EUR cold extend its softness to the low 1.2500 area, while the AUD is good buying in the mid 0.6300's.
I think starting over the Xmas/NewYear break, we'll see the EUR lead the recovery. The holiday period tends to see light volumes, exaggerated moves, and stops being triggered unceramoniously. When the market sobers up in late January, we'll see the USD decline accelerate as traders get back into risk, start looking for yield again, and stocks recover on the back of Obama's inauguration.
Precious metals will also recover on the back of the EUR early in 2009.
Data for Today
US: Construction Spending
Trades for Today
EUR: Buy dips towards 1.2530 today. I think we'll see a dip today before a bounce
JPY: Sell strength towards 95.60, stops above 96.10
GBP/JPY: Sell a break below 146.40
Silver: Buy any dips between 9.60-10.00. A break above $11 will trigger a quick move to $13
Gold: Small traders wait to buy dips to 784. Larger traders can establish longs around 805
Published on Mon, Dec 1 2008, 03:27 GMT
3
0
FX Levels for Today November 28, 2008
Fri, Nov 28 2008, 04:23 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
USD looks to have run its race folks!!!
The Dollar Index futures contract is trading around 85.60 currently, a break under 84.50 would give us confirmation.
I think starting over the Xmas/NewYear break, we'll see the EUR lead the recovery. The holiday period tends to see light volumes, exaggerated moves, and stops being triggered unceramoniously. When the market sobers up in late January, we'll see the USD decline accelerate as traders get back into risk, start looking for yield again, and stocks recover on the back of Obama's inauguration.
Precious metals will also recover on the back of the EUR
Not expecting much movement post-Thanksgiving
Data for Today
EU: CPI
EU: Consumer Confidence
US: Jobless Claims
Trades for Today
EUR: Buy dips towards 1.2820
Silver: Buy any dips between 9.60-10.00. A break above $11 will trigger a quick move to $13
Gold: Small traders wait to buy dips to 784. Larger traders can establish longs around 805
Published on Fri, Nov 28 2008, 04:23 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today November 24, 2008
Mon, Nov 24 2008, 02:41 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD traded mixed in early Asian trade today. Early on we saw the AUD, GBP and EUR extends their gains from Friday, but then Asia came in and the market turned around as traders looked to be cautious ahead of an announcement regarding Citi.
Overall, the sooner we get some action on Citi the better it will be for the markets in terms of certainty. This way we can get traders back into trading risk, and looking for yield as opposed to just wanting safety.
Crude oil firmed early today, adding to Friday's gains, along with gold and silver. The metals could see a pullback today as profit-taking steps up, but overall i imagine any dips will be shallow as gold leads the way higher again.
Data for Today
GER: IFO
Trades for Today
EUR: Buy dips towards 1.2580
Silver: Buy dips towards 9.30, with stops below 8.80
Gold: Buy dips to 775, or a break above 810
Published on Mon, Nov 24 2008, 02:41 GMT
6
0
FX Levels for Today November 17, 2008
Mon, Nov 17 2008, 04:22 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Well the G20 failed to surprise and as expected came up with little in the way of new ideas. But then again, who really thought we'd see anything come out of a meeting of politicians who have very little idea of what's going on.
Early trade today saw the USD firm following the G20's failure to come up with anything worthwhile, however the tone changed when Asia came in. The EUR and AUD led the rebound, taking the precious metals higher also. The AUD remains vulnerable to the downside despite central bank intervention (which we know never works). A break under 0.6340 would see a quick move towards 0.6200.
Crude oil has started the week softer, keeping the precious metals' gains limited today. Gold will have resistance around 750 today, with support at 740. While silver will have support around 9.35, and resistance around 9.70, followed by 10.00
Today's US data is expected to be disappointing, the question now is how disappointing it will be. A slightly negative number will be as good as a positive number and could see the USD bounce back some.
Data for Today
US: Empire State Manufacturing
US: Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production
Trades for Today
EUR: Sell moves towards 1.2650. I remain unconvinced about this recovery just yet
AUD: Sell towards 0.6580
Silver: Buy dips towards 9.35, with stops below 9.15
Published on Mon, Nov 17 2008, 04:22 GMT
2
0
FX Levels for Today November 12, 2008
Wed, Nov 12 2008, 02:41 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD continues to defy gravity on the back of continuing concerns about a global recession and the fact that risk is a new four-letter swear word.
The EUR, GBP and AUD remain the weakest, while yen crosses also traded lower as traders shun risk and yield.
The commodity complex continues to trade inversely to the USD, and for the same reasons regarding a global slowdown. Crude oil has broken back under $60, leading the precious metals lower. Further downside can be expected over the coming 24 hours as the weaker longs finally take their medicine. Silver to be capped around 9.90, and Gold to be capped around 742.
Data for Today
UK: BOE Inflation Report
EU: Industrial Production
Trades for Today
EUR: Sell moves towards 1.2680. Looks vulnerable under 1.2500 as well.
AUD: Sell towards 0.6680
JPY: Sell around 98.10 today
Gold: Sell strength towards 742
Published on Wed, Nov 12 2008, 02:41 GMT
8
0
FX Levels for Today November 11, 2008
Tue, Nov 11 2008, 04:23 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD continued its overnight strength in Asian trade today as markets again get nervy about a global slowdown and not being able to borrow money anymore.
Yesterday's news of a Chinese stimulus package and AIG's new bailout were quickly forgotten as the outlook for US firms became further dismal overnight with talk of layoffs, write-offs and bankruptcies.
The USD strength led to commodities reversing earlier gains - crude traded in a $6 range yesterday, and precious metals came back to the levels at which they started at in Asian trade. Silver looks to be developing a support base around $10, and a reverse head and shoulders looks to be forming with a neckline at $13.
Data for Today
GER: ZEW Survey
EU: ZEW Survey
Trades for Today
EUR: Sell around 1.2780
AUD: Sell towards 0.6750
Gold: Buy dips to 740
Silver: Buy around $10, with stops below $9.60
Published on Tue, Nov 11 2008, 04:23 GMT
4
1
FX Levels for Today November 10, 2008
Mon, Nov 10 2008, 03:12 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD softness from Friday has continued in early Asian trade today.
Rather than focusing on Friday's NFP report, the markets have been buoyed by news of a $600Bln stimulus package from China, and hopes that AIG may have some good news soon regarding its woes. Asian stocks are higher, along with crude oil, and EUR and AUD as traders look for a bit more risk, but this could be very short-lived.
Quite possibly, we may see traders use this pop-up today as an opportunity to establish fresh shorts, or look to buy the pullback in the USD looking for a move back up towards 90.00 in the Dollar Index.
Earlier today, the RBA came out with as expected dovish comments regarding the Australian economy. The AUD pulled back slightly, but then moved back above 0.6900 on widespread USD weakness.
Data for Today
GER: CPI
UK: PPI
Trades for Today
EUR: Buy dips to 1.2830
AUD/NZD: Buy dips towards 1.1380
Gold: Buy dips to 740
Published on Mon, Nov 10 2008, 03:12 GMT
4
0
FX Levels for Today November 6, 2008
Thu, Nov 6 2008, 03:39 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD remained firm in Asian trade today, particularly against the EUR and GBP, ahead of today's ECB and BOE meetings.
The market is expecting a 50bps cut from each, and even 100bps from the BOE.
Elsewhere, stocks weakened overnight as the market turned its focus back onto the global slowdown, following the US election.
Crude oil weakened in line with talk of slowing demand, and pulled gold down with it.
Data for Today
UK: BOE Meeting
EU: ECB Meeting
US: Weekly Jobless
Trades for Today
JPY: Sell moves towards 98.20
AUD/NZD: Sell moves towards 1.1410
GBP/JPY: Sell a break of 153.20
Published on Thu, Nov 6 2008, 03:39 GMT
5
0
FX Levels for Today November 4, 2008
Tue, Nov 4 2008, 04:51 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD was little changed in Asian trade today, ahead of the big US elections today - finally this circus is coming to an end.
Already today, the RBA surprised the market with a 75bps cut in rates, the market had expected 50bps. The AUD has fallen over a cent against most currencies as a result.
Overnight, crude was unable to maintain its recent bounce and fell over 5%. This, along with USD strength overnight kept gold looking vulnerable.
Data for Today
EU: PPI
US: Presidential Elections
Trades for Today
EUR: Sell moves towards 1.2620
JPY: Buy dips to 98.40
EUR/GBP: Buy dips to 0.7950
Published on Tue, Nov 4 2008, 04:51 GMT
3
0
FX Levels for Today November 3, 2008
Mon, Nov 3 2008, 03:28 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD remained capped in early Asian trade today, ahead of key central bank meetings this week in EU, UK, and AUS. All these are expected to cut rates by upto 50bps, on the heels of the US and BOJ cuts last week.
In October, the USD posted its biggest monthly gain in more than 17 years, as traders switched out of riskier trades, and looked towards a global recession as reason enough to jump into the greenback.
Crude oil showed some strength on Friday, and has continued to firm today as traders start to react to the oversold levels of last week. Silver also managed to hold its ground, but surprisingly, Gold remained soft on Friday.
Apart from the central bank meetings this week, the market will be watching out for Friday US jobs data, with talk of upto 200k jobs being cut last month and unemployment rising to 6.3%.
Data for Today
US: Manufacturing Survey
Trades for Today
EUR: Buy dips to 1.2800
AUD: Buy dips to 0.6780
Published on Mon, Nov 3 2008, 03:28 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today October 29
Wed, Oct 29 2008, 05:21 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The EUR and other crosses have been unable to maintain their overnight gains during the Asian session today.
While the session started on a firm note, things reversed after lunch amid further losses in stockmarkets. The overnight gains in the Yen crosses also disappeared as traders discounted talk of BOJ rate cuts, and intervention.
Crude oil has been able to regain some lost ground today, but gold and silver have weakened in line with today's USD strength, however remain supported lower down, ahead of the FOMC later today.
Data Today
US: FOMC
For Today
Im basically looking for EUR, AUD and GBP to bounce back from these oversold levels before going short. These crosses will turn around going into year-end, but will then weaken even further than current levels in 2009 as recession fears materialise and the flood back into the USD takes hold. Looking for EUR to recover to around 1.3000, and AUD to get back up around 0.6900 before we can short
AUD/NZD: Sell moves towards 1.1250
Gold - buy a break above 764
Silver: buy dips to 8.90-9.00
Published on Wed, Oct 29 2008, 05:21 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today October 28
Tue, Oct 28 2008, 05:02 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The EUR rout continued today in Asia on the back of comments from Trichet hinting at a rate cut in November.
The EUR/USD has hit a 2 1/2 year low, while against the Yen it's hit a 6 1/2 year low. On the back of this, we've seen further slides in USD/JPY, AUD, and GBP so far today.
Intervention is the buzz word this week as the market sees the RBA coming in for the third straight day to prop up the AUD. The market is also looking out for the BOJ to step in shortly given the sudden and steep rise of the Yen, but we all know intervention has short-lived effects and does little to influence the market.
Looking ahead, the market awaits the FOMC meeting, expecting a 50bps cut in rates, followed by US GDP and payrolls later in the week.
For Today
Im basically looking for EUR, AUD and GBP to bounce back from these oversold levels before going short. These crosses will turn around going into year-end, but will then weaken even further than current levels in 2009 as recession fears materialise and the flood back into the USD takes hold.
AUD/NZD: Sell moves towards 1.1200
Gold - Buy dips to 723-718. Looking for a bounce this week
Silver: Well supported around 8.90-9.00
Published on Tue, Oct 28 2008, 05:02 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today October 27
Mon, Oct 27 2008, 03:34 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The recent stampede out of high yielding currencies, into the USD and Yen continued on Friday, along with across the board selling in global staockmarkets. Late in NY, the AUD, EUR, and GBP managed to regain some lost ground on the back of bottom feeding, but really, these crosses remain vulnerable to further downside. It was announced today that the RBA intervened on Friday in the AUD, "to provide liquidity in an illiquid market".
Another choppy session today to start the week. USD was under a little pressure this morning as Asian stockmarkets opened firmer, but as the S&P futures started to weaken, so did the resolve of FX traders, running back into the safety of the greenback. Comments from Japanese officials tried to calm the markets, and hinted at possible intervention given the recent strength of the Yen.
Crude again weakened on Friday, dragging gold and silver down with it, but the precious metals managed a strong bounce late in NY, again on the back of bottom feeding and a pullback in the USD.
Data Today
GER: IFO
US: New Home Sales
US: Existing Home Sales
For today:
Waiting on the sidelines today for better levels at which to sell EUR, GBP and AUD
Published on Mon, Oct 27 2008, 03:34 GMT
1
0
FX Levels for Today October 23
Thu, Oct 23 2008, 04:47 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
What a routing folks!!!
The USD continues to find favour, ironic, given that this credit crisis has it's "ground zero" in the US. Rather than running to the safety of gold, the market is finding solace in the greenback - an accident waiting to happen thinks I.
The EUR continued to slide, only beaten by the cable, with the AUD dragging its heels (only becuase its sell-off begain earlier). The Reserve Bank of NZ announce a 100bps cut in rates today, their biggest cut in history. This USD strength will continue until we see that rates elsewhere have been cut far enough, and that a recession/slowdown in the rest of the world is confirmed by economic data.
Crdue oil continued to weaken overnight, and must surely be nearing a bottom you'd think. Those Arab sheiks must really be feeling a pinch given that it was only a few months ago that we were up near US$150. Gold has again slipped overnight, driven by crude oil, the firmer USD, and widespread weakness in commodities. We look set for a break under $700, possibly as early as today. I'd be looking for a bottom in Gold between 650-680.
Data Today
UK: Retail Sales
US: Weekly Jobless Claims
For today:
EUR/GBP: Sell moves towards 0.7930. This cross should breakdown in coming weeks after going sideways for sooooo long
Silver: sell moves towards 9.50, and/or a break below 9.30
Published on Thu, Oct 23 2008, 04:47 GMT
4
0
FX Levels for Today October 22
Wed, Oct 22 2008, 02:40 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD rallied strongly overnight, as sentiment grows regarding the rest of the world having to cut rates more than expected to bolster growth.
The weakness, particularly in the EUR has continued today as it extends the break under 1.3000. Elsewhere, GBP has fallen below 1.6500 for the first time since 2003 as the BOE Governor suggested the UK was entering a recession. The AUD has fallen in sympathy with the big boys, despite CPI data confirming inflation at 5% for the year, but this just means the RBA wont cut as hard as expected in coming months.
Gold fell overnight on the back of the USD strength and also on the back of crude oil weakening. Silver though was a surprise, moving marginally higher, but this just offers better levels at which to get short from for when it plays catch-up to the other commodities.
Data Today
UK: BOE Minutes
NZ: RBNZ Meeting - expecting rate cut of between 75-100bps.
For today:
EUR: need to wait for a bounce upto around 1.3060 to sell into.
Silver: sell moves towards 10.20, with stops above 10.50, and/or buy a break above 10.70
Published on Wed, Oct 22 2008, 02:40 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today October 21
Tue, Oct 21 2008, 05:30 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD continued to hold firm in Asian trade today, continuing the overnight mood against the EUR and Yen.
Overnight, the greenback got support from Bernanke's comments, and demand from repatriation moves. Most of today's Asian action has been in the AUD, following the release of the RBA's minutes and comments by the RBA Governor talking of slowing growth, and in most part suggestive of further rate cuts in Australia in coming months, but not as aggressive as foirst thought.
Gold and silver remained rangebound overnight, but remain susceptible to further downside if the USD continues to strengthen and if the current crude oil move runs out of steam.
Data Today
For today:
EUR: sell moves towards 1.3380
JPY: buy a break above 102.60
AUD/NZD: buy dips to 1.1300
Silver: buy a break above 10.70
Published on Tue, Oct 21 2008, 05:30 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today October 20
Mon, Oct 20 2008, 04:47 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The market has begun the new week in a positive frame of mind, helped by weekend talk of a crisis summit (talkfest) next month.
The Yen crosses and AUD have been the main beneficiaries of today's confidence, as traders look to put on small yield plays once again. The AUD looks to be taking its lead from the US stockmarkets - going up when stocks rise, and falling when stocks sell-off.
Metals again got hit on Friday night, but along with the currencies are finding some support today, along with firmer crude oil prices.
If anything, I feel this bounce we're seeing in the AUD, EUR, and yen crosses, merely gives us a better levels to get short from as the crisis continues to unfold, and the signs of recession start to appear in Europe and Australia over the coming 4-5 months.
In Australia tomorrow, we have the RBA minutes followed the RBA Governor speaking. These events will give the market a better insight into the outlook for the AUD over the coming 6 months.
Data Today
For today:
EUR: sell moves towards the resistance around 1.3550
JPY: to run out of steam around 102.50-60 today
AUD/NZD: Buy dips to 1.1300
Published on Mon, Oct 20 2008, 04:47 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today October 17
Fri, Oct 17 2008, 04:37 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD edged higher against most currencies today, regaining some of the overnight ground, amidst further global recessionary talk.
The AUD was particularly strong overnight, and added to gains in Asian trade today, on the back of good buying in AUD/GBP. Overall though, the 0.7200 level should offer good resistance in coming weeks/months as talk of further interest rate cuts in Australia remains.
Crude oil sold-off heavily overnight, breaking under $70, but has regained some of that ground in Asia today. Gold and silver also sold-off overnight, on the back of crude oil and the need for investors to get into cash or atleast the safety of the USD.
Data Today
US: Housing Starts
US: U. of Michigan Confidence
For today:
EUR: sell moves towards the resistance around 1.3550
AUD: heading lower, The 0.6750 level to cap any strength today
Gold/USD: Sell strength towards 820, looking for a test of support at 770
Published on Fri, Oct 17 2008, 04:37 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today October 16
Thu, Oct 16 2008, 04:50 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD has continued to add to overnight gains in Asian trade today as the "R" word again gained prominence.
While most of the focus was on the US falling into recession, thinking that the rest of the world would follow, caused traders to rush out of riskier cuurencies/commodities, and into the relative safety of the greenback.
Crude oil weakened again overnight, on the back of continuing talk of economic slowdowns. Silver was lower, but gold remains unusually stable - not strengthening as a safe-haven asset, but equally not weakening on the back of weakness in commodities.
Data Today
US: CPI
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Industrial Prodn/Cap U
US: Philly Fed.
For today:
EUR: look to move lower. Resistance around 1.3450 today
AUD: heading lower, The 0.6750 level to cap any strength today
Gold/USD: Sell strength towards 870
Published on Thu, Oct 16 2008, 04:50 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today October 15
Wed, Oct 15 2008, 01:52 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
I'm baaaaacccckkkk!
Big moves, and big volatility over the last few weeks folks. Probably a good time to be out and keeping the powder dry.
Overnight, the USD came off slighlty as the market continued to find some confidence in recent moves by governments around the world. Traders have continued to move back into the EUR, AUD, and yen crosses looking for yield. The USD weakness will i think be a short-term thing as the market again focus's on Europe following the US into recession early in 2009.
US stocks came off overnight, mostly on weakness in tech stocks, rather than any new concerns to do with financials. Crude continues to weaken, and will now find it hard to regain prices above the $85 level in coming months.
Precious metals had a subdued session overnight, however a push to the downside remains the preferred direction. Gold will remain capped around 870 in coming weeks, and a break under 820 will push the market down to 770. Silver meanwhile will have good resistance around 11.40.
Geez, wouldn't it be nice to see the market stop for a breather and take a look at today's economic data, rather than just trade on fear.
Data Today
GER: CPI
EU: CPI
US: PPI
US: Retail Sales
US: Empire State Manufacturing
US: Beige Book
For today:
EUR: look to trade the range, 1.3480-1.3680
GBP: Buy dips to 1.7350
Gold/USD: Sell strength towards 870
Published on Wed, Oct 15 2008, 01:52 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today October 14
Tue, Oct 14 2008, 00:45 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
I'm baaaaacccckkkk!
Big moves, and big volatility over the last few weeks folks. Probably a good time to be out and keeping the powder dry.
Overnight, the USD came off across the board as the market continued to react to the weekend's news, and today's news that the US government would be buying stakes in most of the US' major banks.
As we speak, the AUD is trading around 0.7100, up 3 cents since NY close, and the EUR is above 1.3700, its best level in over a month. Yen crosses have also rallied strongly as traders look for riskier, higher yielding plays.
In the precious metals, gold is now lagging, while silver is showing signs of strength as it bounces from the low $10's. Gold will find resistance around $850, and looks set for a move lower, perhaps even below $800 in coming weeks. Crude oil is again firm today, but should find selling pressure around $85-86.
Data Today
For today:
EUR: Buy dips to 1.3640
GBP: Buy dips to 1.7380
Gold/USD: Sell strength towards 870
Published on Tue, Oct 14 2008, 00:45 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today September 11
Thu, Sep 11 2008, 05:00 GMT
by Abdul Khan
I will be on leave until October 7, 2008
Overview
The USD climbed to new highs for the year overnight against most currencies, including the EUR. Most of the action was based on further falls in crude oil, and firmer US stocks.
The precious metals again slid on the back of the above, and look to be heading lower in coming weeks.
Looking ahead, the USD will continue to remain well supported going into the US elections. Gold and silver will remain soft on the back of the USD, and weakness in crude. Crude oil will break under $100 before we can expect any bounce. Heading into the weekend, the market will buy crude oil expecting Hurricane Ike to cause havoc, and then sell crude oil on Monday when it is seen that Ike was just a bad storm - buy the rumour, sell the fact folks!!
Major currencies to remain weak heading into November until we see some definite rate cuts from the UK, EU, and Australia.
I'm on leave from today, and will return on October 7. Good trading to you all!!!
Data Today
US: Trade Balance
US: Weekly Jobless
For today:
On Holidays
Published on Thu, Sep 11 2008, 05:00 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today September 10
Wed, Sep 10 2008, 05:28 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD sold off against the yen overnight, following news that the latest Lehmans rescue package had fallen over. The USD firmed up elsewhere, particularly against the EUR, GBP, and AUD.
So far today, we've seen these crosses regain some of the lost ground, but traders remain cautious of selling the greenback too far just yet.
Elsewhere crude oil fell overnight, pulling down the metals, but has bounced this morning, following an OPEC announcement that production was to be cut. Silver remains volatile, while gold could bounce from here, but remains capped around 790.
Data Today
US: Crude Oil Inventories
NZ: RBNZ Meeting
For today:
AUD/GBP: Sell moves towards .4590
Gold: Buy dips to 772, targeting 785-790
Published on Wed, Sep 10 2008, 05:28 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today September 8
Mon, Sep 8 2008, 04:18 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Friday seems soooo far away now. The overnight news that the US government will be bailing out Freddie and Fannie has all but eroded any impact that Friday's payrolls data may have had today.
The immediate reaction from the market was to sell the USD, and buy US stocks. As a result, we've seen a wide ranging rally in most currencies against the greenback, along with a good move up in the precious metals and crude oil. The question now is - how long will this last?
I think this change in mood will last about another 12 hours before the market again focuses on the global slowdown, and the fact that other US companies remain affected. As an example, the head of the Australian central bank was appearing at a Senate committee hearing today, and he all but announced another rate cut next month, and could not rule out another cut before the year's out.
Data for today
UK: PPI
UK: Industrial Production
For today:
Happy to sit on the sidelines today and see how the dust settles
Published on Mon, Sep 8 2008, 04:18 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today September 4
Thu, Sep 4 2008, 04:29 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD edged higher overnight, on the back of weak EU data, and growing expectations that the US economy would outperform Europe.
The EUR is sitting on a weekly trendline around 1.44, dating back to 2005, which if broken could open up the way for a fall to 1.40, and a trendline which dates back to 2002.
The precious metals look to be stabilising, but are far from out of the woods. There's simply no fundamentals around currently to suggest gold will trade higher. Crude oil now looks capped around $112 and will test $100, before we see any real recovery. This will see gold testing support down around 770 in coming weeks, and silver back down under $12.
Alot of releases out today, starting with the BOE and ECB meetings, followed by the ADP Employment report, and then crude oil inventories. After all this data, the USD will have not lost too much ground, and the EUR will remain pressured for further downside.
Data for today
UK: BOE Meeting
EU: ECB Meeting
US: ADP Employment
US: ISM non-manufacturing
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Crude Oil Inventories
For today:
JPY: Sell strength towards 108.30
AUD/NZD: sell up around 1.2230, and buy back at 1.2180
Published on Thu, Sep 4 2008, 04:29 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today September 2
Tue, Sep 2 2008, 02:59 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD started the week off stronger helped by weakness in crude oil, and a slide in the Sterling.
Even though the US was closed for Labor Day, the Doaalr Index managed to trade upto its highest level this year, pushing the EUR below 1.46, and sterling below 1.80 for the first time since April 2006.
As Hurricane Gustav was scaled down, crude oil lost ground, falling over $5 and now testing the 200 DMA. Gold and silver also fell on the back of crude, and as a result of USD strength, and look set for further lower levels over the next couple of days.
In all likelihood, the USD will continue to firm over the next 48-72 hours on the back of the expectation that this week's EU data will be weak. On Thursday, ahead of US payrolls on Friday we could see some profit taking in the USD as traders square up. This should see Gold come off to around 805-795, and silver to around $13.
Data for today
EU: PPI
US: ISM Manufacturing
For today:
Alot of the moves have already happened, but i'd like to do the following over the coming 24 hours:
EUR: sell any recovery towards 1.4620
AUD: sell moves back upto 0.8520
Gold: sell into strength around 820
Published on Tue, Sep 2 2008, 02:59 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today September 1
Mon, Sep 1 2008, 03:57 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Solid economic numbers on Friday helped to push the USD higher across the board, and set it up for its biggest monthly gain in over 15 years.
While consumer spending was down, manufacturing and consumer confidence were up, and came on the heels of good GDP data on Thursday. Over the weekend, the UK Treasurer has come out and just about announced that England's in a depression with the credit crisis coming at the same time as slowing growth, higher commodity prices, and falling house prices. Predictably, the Sterling has been sold-off heavily today.
Alot of data is due out this week, with the highlights being the ECB meeting on Thursday, and US employment on Friday. Im looking for the USD strength to carry on into September, and for the EUR to remain pressured until we get back down to around 1.4500.
Crude oil will remain well bid early in the week as we watch to see what happens with Hurricane Gustava in the US. Gold and silver will remain supported by crude, but the USD strength will mean that any upside will have to come from crude, and i dont think that will happen.
Data for today
GER: GDP
GER: Retail Sales
For today:
Not much to do, what with the US holiday today, and uncertainty regarding the Hurricane.
Published on Mon, Sep 1 2008, 03:57 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today August 29
Fri, Aug 29 2008, 01:48 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD firmed overnight, on the back of stronger than expected GDP data. The data also helped US stocks to firm.
The data has helped to underline the recent sentiment in the market towards the US economy nearing the end of the credit crisis, while the rest of the world apeears to be lagging behind. As expected, the EUR was unable to remain the upside move following comments hawkish comments from an ECB official on Tuesday. The Dollar Index looks set for another crack above 78.00 today, and it would not surprise me to see the December futures contract close above this critical level at the end of the NY session today.
Crude oil lost ground overnight, and remains trapped in the $110-120 range. Assuming geo-political factors do not play any major role, I would look to crude oil continuing to trade this range through to the end of the year.
Gold and silver firmed early, but then lost ground in the NY session on the back of the USD strength, and weakness in crude. I think this softness in the metals will continue today, pushing gold back into the mid 820's and silver back to around 13.50.
Data for today
EU: CPI
EU: Consumer Confidence
US: PCE Deflator
US: Personal Income and Consumption
US: Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index
US: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Confidence
For today:
EUR: Sell moves towards 1.4750
Gold: Sell moves towards 837, and/or buy dips to 823
JPY: Sell strength towards 110.00
Published on Fri, Aug 29 2008, 01:48 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today August 28
Thu, Aug 28 2008, 04:39 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD came off sharply overnight, and remains under pressure against the EUR today, following remarks by an ECB official speculating on interest rate rises to quell inflation.
I think any reaction to these comments will be limited to just today perhaps, and the USD consolidation will continue on Friday and next week. As i've said previously, the EUR will struggle to break back above 1.5000 without some sort of rate hike, or strong economic data. Before that, the 1.4900 level will probably become the top of the trading range for the next few months.
Gold and silver firmed on the back of USD weakness, and firmer crude. I'd look for this positive mood to continue for today with gold looking to test $837-840, and silver heading for $14.
Data for today
US: GDP
US: Core PCE
US: Weekly Jobless
For today:
EUR: Buy around 1.4760
Gold: Buy dips to 832
Published on Thu, Aug 28 2008, 04:39 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today August 26
Tue, Aug 26 2008, 04:53 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Heavy losses in US stocks overnight pushed the USD lower against the Yen as the market unwound carry trades. Elsewhere, the USD firmed on the back of good housing data and the prevailing view of growth slowing in Europe and the UK.
Crude oil remained in a tight range, as did the precious metals. Sideways trading will continue in these commodities till atleast the end of the year, mainly on the back of the USD continuing to consolidate and move higher over coming months.
In the main today, the market will be looking at more US housing data, along with consumer confidence and the minutes from the last Fed meeting.
Data for today
GER: GDP
GER: IFO
US: New Home Sales
US: Consumer Confidence
US: FOMC Minutes
For today:
EUR: Sell strength towards 1.4740
JPY: Sell moves towards 109.80
Published on Tue, Aug 26 2008, 04:53 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today August 25
Mon, Aug 25 2008, 03:01 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Gloomy UK data, falling crude oil, and supportive comments from Buffett helped the USD to rally strongly on Friday.
The soft UK data has led to speculation that the UK economy is headed into a recession, and further heightens expectations of rate cuts outside the US in coming months. Crude oil fell over $6 on the back of diminishing supply and geo-political fears.
Gold and silver weakened on the back of the firmer USD and crude oil falling. The precious metals will remain under pressure early in the week, and will remain rangebound for the coming few months.
Alot of data out this week on both sides of the Atlantic, which in short should keep the USD in recovery, and keep the EUR under pressure.
Data for today
US: Existing Home Sales
For today:
EUR: Sell strength towards 1.4770
AUD: Sell moves to 0.8660
AUD/NZD: sell rallies to 1.2250
Published on Mon, Aug 25 2008, 03:01 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today August 22
Fri, Aug 22 2008, 04:41 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD fell broadly overnight as worries about US financials again came to the fore. Additionally, crude oil rallied strongly, and took the precious metals with it.
Heading into the weekend, the USD will remain under pressure, but the USD rebound is not over by any stretch. The Dollar Index appears set for a retracement back to around 75.00, but the longer term picture remains intact, with a move above 80 expected in coming months.
Crude will have immediatte reistance around $122, and will find it hard to get back above $130 in coming weeks unless geo-political factors play a part. Gold and silver's recent bounce looks shaky, but any fall will be well supported around $800 in gold and $12.90 in silver.
Data for today
UK: GDP
US: Bernanke speaking on Financial Stability.
For today:
EUR: Buy dips towards 1.4750
AUD: Buy dips to 0.8760
AUD/NZD: sell rallies to 1.2250
Published on Fri, Aug 22 2008, 04:41 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today August 21
Thu, Aug 21 2008, 04:37 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD bounced back overnight as the EUR ran into selling pressure near 1.4800, and US stocks bounced a little.
Data continues to come out showing non-US economies slowing, further underlying the belief in a stronger USD as traders move funds out of EUR, GBP, AUD, into the greenback.
The Dollar Index is being watched closely as it runs into resistance around 78.00, and crude is agin firming, but will find resistance around 118. Today's data out of the UK and EU should provide further evidence of slowing growth.
Gold and Silver dipped early, but then rebounded on the back of crude. I think gold could still have a crack at 830 in this move up, pushing silver towards 13.80.
Data for today
EU: PMI
UK: Retail Sales
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Philly Fed.
For today:
EUR: Sell strength towards 1.4790
AUD: Sell rallies into 0.8760
JYP: Buy dips to 109.50
AUD/NZD: sell rallies to 1.2280
Published on Thu, Aug 21 2008, 04:37 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today August 19
Tue, Aug 19 2008, 04:59 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD had a slight pullback overnight, as traders looked to take a breath, and gave the Euro a chance to recover a little. Additionally, US stocks sold-off again, and crude looked firm early in the session.
This pullback in the USD will prove only temporary, as traders remain on the ready to short Euro again above 1.48.
Crude was firmer earlier on supply concerns, lifting the precious metals, but late in NY the black couldn't hold onto gains, which then led to the metals also slipping back. In Asian trade today, crude oil is leading the way lower, followed by silver and gold.
Today's European economic sentiment data, followed by US PPI and housing data could prove to be just the trigger for another move up in the greenback.
Data for today
EU: ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey
US: PPI
US: Housing Starts
For today:
EUR: Sell strength towards 1.4740
AUD: Sell rallies into 0.8720
JYP: Buy dips to 109.50
AUD/NZD: sell rallies to 1.2280
Gold: look to buy dips to 765
Published on Tue, Aug 19 2008, 04:59 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today August 18
Mon, Aug 18 2008, 05:27 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Friday's USD rally in Asia continued into the Euro-US sessions on the back of crude oil again weakening, and further talk of a slowdown occurring in Europe.
The USD posted its fifth straight week of gains against the EUR, rallying 6% just in this month, while the Dollar Index looks headed for 80.00 after breaking thru a downtrend on the weekly chart.
Crude oil dropped to $111 on Friday, before rallying into the close. Gold and silver tried to recover in the London session after the sell-off in the Asian session, but were hammered back down by the weakness in crude in NY.
So far today, we've seen a recovery in the EUR, AUD, and precious metals, but the market is looking to sell into these rallies for the moment, and this sentiment will continue for the next few weeks atleast.
Data for today
Not much to speak of this week
For today:
EUR: look to wait to sell into rallies towards 1.4840.
AUD: look to wait to sell into rallies towards 0.8820
Gold: to be capped around 805 for the next little while
Published on Mon, Aug 18 2008, 05:27 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today August 15
Fri, Aug 15 2008, 04:44 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD's overnight strength has continued into Asia today, as the Dollar Index hits a 6 month high.
Data out of Europe overnight showing contracting growth, meanwhile US CPI rose faster than expected, exactly what we were looking for in yesterday's report. Elsewhere, the AUD again suffered under the selling pressure as the market sold higher yielding currencies, along with the precious metals, in particular silver. Gold fell below $800 for the first time this year, and pushed silver down over 5%, with more to come tonight no doubt.
Crude is also weaker in Asia today, down under $114 again, with a retest of $110 tonight a very distinct possibility given the carnage going on elsewhere.
Data for today
US: Empire Manufacturing
US: Industrial Prodn. and Cap Utilization
US: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
For today:
Happy to sit back today after getting short gold, silver and aud/nzd.
Anyone looking to pick up some gold and silver for longer term trades, now is the time
Published on Fri, Aug 15 2008, 04:44 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today August 14
Thu, Aug 14 2008, 04:46 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
As expected, we saw a pullback, albeit a small one in the USD overnight as the EUR, crude oil, and precious metals bounced back from oversold territory.
Dont expect it to continue though. A one day recovery does not constitute a resumption of the uptrend. Over the coming weeks i'm looking for the EUR to bottom out around 1.4500, AUD to bottom around 0.8400, Gold to find support around 770, and Crude to break under 110 before the sellers run out of puff.
Lots of data out today on both sides of the Atlantic, ensuring Thursday continues to be a big market moving day. I'm expecting soft GDP out of the EU, and strong CPI from the US, lifting the USD once again.
Data for today
UK: BOE Report
GER: GDP
EU: GDP
EU: CPI
US: CPI
US: Weekly Jobless
For today:
AUD/NZD: Sell around 1.2450
Gold: Sell around 833
Silver: Sell around $15
Published on Thu, Aug 14 2008, 04:46 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today August 12
Tue, Aug 12 2008, 05:34 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD rally continued overnight, as the EUR slid to a 5 month low against the greenback on the back of further weakness in crude oil.
Talk about the US slowdown spreading across the globe remains the focus. As does talk of rate cuts in the EU, UK, and Australia, later in the year.
There's more to come i think. EUR could easily extend down to the mid 140's, AUD to 0.8500, crude to $110 or even lower, Gold to $760, and silver to $13.00. The Dollar Index has started what could become a huge recovery. It's currently around 77.00, but could easily rally towards 85.00 by the end of next week. At this time, if you've missed getting long the USD, then keep your powder dry for when we get a chance to buy the EUR, GBP, and AUD at lower levels, in coming months.
That's right, i said coming months, not weeks. We could see the slide continue into September, after which the market goes sideways for the remainder of the year.
Data for today
UK: CPI
For today:
Waiting for a bounce in the EUR, AUD and GBP before selling into the strength
Published on Tue, Aug 12 2008, 05:34 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today August 11
Mon, Aug 11 2008, 04:32 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD made a definite move on Friday, posting its biggest one-day gain against the EUR since 2000, and setting the mood for a continuation of the move in coming months.
The move came on the back of Trichet's dovish comments on Thursday, following the ECB meeting, a warning out of Japan that it might be in recession, and crude oil hitting $115 a barrel, just a month after being up around $150.
Ofcourse precious metals also fell sharply, continuing their weakness, and by no-means out of the woods just yet. Gold remains vulnerable for a move towards the low 800's, and silver below $14, particularly if this USD strength continues, and crude oil keeps falling.
Looking at the week ahead - the USD will remain well supported as sentiment shifts towards the Europeans looking to cut rates, and the US looking to hike in their respective next moves. Thursday's US CPI data will be the main focus, aside from US retail sales on Wednesday.
Data for today
Nothing of any note
For today:
Waiting for a bounce in the EUR, AUD and GBP before selling into the strength
Published on Mon, Aug 11 2008, 04:32 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today August 8
Fri, Aug 8 2008, 05:13 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD made significant ground overnight, on the back of good housing data, and a signal from the ECB that further rate hikes were not foreseeable.
ECB's Trichet came out after the meeting held rates steady to say that he expected economic growth to weaken substantially this year, while inflation was to remain high - another sign of stagflation appearing folks!!
The EUR fell sharply on the comments, and has continued to fall in Asia today, breaking down to January levels under 1.5280, and even breaking the 200 DMA for the first time since March 2006. The AUD and GBP have also fallen today, and have more ground to lose in coming months. The Dollar Index has rallied strong in contrast, hitting 5 month highs, and is set to continue the breakout.
Crude oil firmed up early, but ran into resistance around $122, which continue to cap any advances, while it grinds towards $110 and lower in coming weeks. Gold and silver have broken significant necklines on their respective head and shoulder patterns. As crude oil weakens, and the USD strengthens over the coming couple of months, we'll see the metals slide lower. Gold to retest 820-840, and silver looking at $14.
Data for today
Nothing - leaving us free to enjoy the Opening Ceremony of the Beijing Olympics
For today:
EUR: Sell strength towards 1.5300
AUD: Sell around 0.9000 today
Published on Fri, Aug 8 2008, 05:13 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today August 5
Tue, Aug 5 2008, 03:42 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Most of the action overnight was in the commodities with crude falling nearly 3%, leading the metals lower, and helping the USD to firm further against the yen in particular.
The FX market was otherwise trapped in a tight range ahead of the FOMC meeting tonight, ignoring the positive data that came out, with traders reluctant to put any further bets on the USD just yet. I'm thinking the FOMC will decide on no change in rates, but the statement will be USD supportive. This will continue to cap the EUR, GBP, and AUD.
The story for the next couple of months looks like unfolding as follows: data out of non-US countries continues to be soft, oil continues to comeback towards $100, gold and silver stay weak as a result, and the USD firms as a result of other currencies weakening, and as the market starts to see an end to the credit crisis in the US.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has just announced no change in rates (as expected), and the post-meeting statement is dovish, but not as much as expected, Look for a rate cut in Q4 2008.
Data for today
UK: Industrial Production
EU: Retail Sales
US: FOMC Meeting
US: ISM - Non-manufacturing
For today:
No need to be in a hurry to buy the EUR, AUD, or precious metals in coming weeks i suspect.
EUR: Sell strength towards 1.5560 pre-FOMC
JPY: Buy dips to 108.00 pre-FOMC
AUD: Sell around 0.9280 today
Published on Tue, Aug 5 2008, 03:42 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today August 4
Mon, Aug 4 2008, 03:17 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD managed to end the week on a high, following a payrolls number which was bad, but not as bad as expected.
The USD also managed to firm despite crude oil rising, and US stocks falling. The Yen was the big loser on Friday, closely followed by the AUD as talk of a recession becomes louder. As you know, it just has to smell like a recession, and the sentiment can change so quickly.
Elsewhere, the precious metals turned higher on the back of crude, and Iran coming back into focus, but ignoring the strong greenback. The metals now seem be building some good support around 900 in gold, and 17.20 in Silver.
Attention now turns to the FOMC meeting on Tuesday, with most expecting no change, and the rhetoric to remain hawkish against inflation, and supportive for growth.
Data for today
EU: PPI
US: Personal Income and Outlays
US: PCE Deflator
For today:
The USD has been giving back some ground in Asia today, and could continue to do so ahead of Tueday's FOMC.
EUR: Buy dips to 1.5560 today
JPY: Sell strength towards 107.80
AUD: Sell around 0.9350
Published on Mon, Aug 4 2008, 03:17 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today August 1
Fri, Aug 1 2008, 04:23 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
A mixed session overnight, as the USD fell early on the back of disappointing GDP data, but firmed late on the back of weaker crude oil, and the market's reluctance to push the EUR to high.
While the market remained cautious about buying the EUR too heavily, the data also reminded the market that the US is far from out of the woods.
Already today, the USD has firmed up as the EUR and AUD lead the way lower following a break of overnight lows. Traders are waiting on tonight's payrolls data before moving too far. The data doesnt have to be spectacular, rather just not be as disappointing as the market expects for the USD to go higher into the weekend.
The precious metals failed to hold earlier gains, falling on the back of crude oil, and remain soft today as the USD firms.
Data for today
US: Non-Farm Payrolls
US: ISM Manufacturing
For today:
I'm out of the market today ahead of the payrolls. I suspect we'll see the EUR end the week in the lows 1.55's, and the AUD in the low .93's.
This would also see Gold re-test 900.0, and silver the lows 17's.
We're buying USD Index Calls. Please email for more info.
Published on Fri, Aug 1 2008, 04:23 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 31
Thu, Jul 31 2008, 03:24 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD continued to recover overnight, helped by a good employment report, and firming US stocks.
The EUR remained under pressure following soft sentiment data, and on the back of news that the ECB and Fed would be extending liquidity offers to investment banks. Despite this move towards the USD over the last couple of weeks, the market remains cautious about getting too carried away - the economy's still soft, and financial sector continues to have systemic faults.
The greenback's strength was stifled late in the session as crude oil rallied over $4 on the back of data showing a fall in reserves. Precious metals managed to bounce also, but continue to remain vulnerable to further downside.
Data for today
EU: CPI
EU: Consumer Confidence
US: GDP
US: PCE
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Chicago PMI
For today:
EUR: Sell moves towards 1.5610
JPY: buy dips towards 107.80
AUD: sell strength towards .9460
We're buying USD Index Calls. Please email for more info.
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Thu, Jul 31 2008, 03:24 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 30
Wed, Jul 30 2008, 04:54 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD firmed across the board overnight, helped by a surprise jump in consumer sentiment, US stocks regaining all their lost ground from the previous day, and crude oil falling another 2%.
Additionally, there's a growing feeling that the US credit crisis is starting to spread to the UK, AUS, and NZ, meaning that traders are reluctant to be buying these currencies. Instead, they're feeling that the US crisis is closer to its end, and so the USD may again be a safe place to park funds.
Not only did the EUR suffer from improved sentiment towards the USD, but falling consumer sentiment in France also kept traders away.
Weekly charts on the AUD, EUR and gold are starting to look interesting. Looks like we might have broken support trendlines on the daily's, suggesting more to come folks!!
Data for today
US: ADP Employment - should be a good indicator for Friday's payrolls number
For today:
EUR: Sell moves towards 1.5630
JPY: buy dips towards 107.50
GBP: Sell up around 1.9850
AUD: sell strength towards .9520
We're buying USD Index Calls. Please email for more info.
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Wed, Jul 30 2008, 04:54 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 29
Tue, Jul 29 2008, 04:36 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD remained capped overnight, as US stocks suffered heavy losses, and heightened concerns that the US slowdown could limt the Fed's ability to raise interest rates before year end.
The negative news from Merrills and Lehmans was compounded by comments from a Fed official who said the next few quarters could be disappointing. These comments are more concerned with the credit crunch than with inflation.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the EUR has its own problems, with negative data over the last few days limiting its gains against the USD. The soft data would normally have seen the EUR lose 3-4 big figures, but given the negative sentiment towards the USD, the slide has been limited. This is also being seen elsewhere as the credit crisis starts to spread to the UK, AUS, and NZ. Traders are reluctant to buy these currencies too agressively.
Data for today
Nothing of any note today, looks like the calm before the storm
For today:
I'm thinking the USD has a little more downside, before it turns around mid-week going into Friday's payrolls.
EUR: trapped between 1.5710-1.5790 today. Look to trade the extremes of this range
JPY: i'm buying towards 107.15 today
CAD: buy dips towards 1.0180
AUD: sell strength towards .9620
GBP/JPY: buy dips to 213.80
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Tue, Jul 29 2008, 04:36 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 28
Mon, Jul 28 2008, 04:25 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
A triple cocktail of good data helped the USD to firm up on Friday.
The USD gained against the yen in particular as durable goods, new-home sales, and consumer sentiment all came out better than expected. Gains in US stocks, and further weakness in crude oil also helped the greenback to firm up.
The precious metals were unable to hold onto early gains made in Asia, as they got hit by weakness in crude and the EUR.
Critical support lines are starting to come into play in the EUR and AUD, following last week's pullbacks. Conversely, some big resistance lines are coming into play in some yen crosses, making this week ver interesting ahead of Friday's payrolls data. I think in the first part of the week we might get a bounce in the EUR, and AUD, leading to a bounce in gold and silver.
Data for today
Nothing of any note today, perhaps the calm before the storm
For today:
EUR: look to buy dips towards 1.5680 today
GBP: buying dips towards 1.9850 today
AUD: 12 month old trendline comes in around .9500. Buy dips towards this level, with stops below .9460.
Gold: Support around 927 today will help us get long for a push towards 940.
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Mon, Jul 28 2008, 04:25 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 25
Fri, Jul 25 2008, 04:50 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD lost ground overnight, mostly against the Yen, as housing data disappointed and US stocks fell heavily. Despite the greenback's gains over the last week or so, the backdrop of poor economic fundamentals remains in focus, and so further gains depend on other countries releasing poor economic data.
Th EUR was unable to make substantial gains against the USD as it had its own problems - German IFO datacame out well below market expectations, and is now at its lowest level since September 2005. With such rapidly deteriorating economic conditions it's difficult to image the ECB hiking rates much further, if at all.
Crude managed to firm some, finally finding some buying interest in the low 120's. On the back of crude, and the softer USD, the precious metals also managed a small bounce, and have continued to firm today in the Asian session.
Data for today
UK: GDP
US: Durable Goods
US: Univ. of Michigan
US: New Home Sales
For today:
EUR: expected to run out of steam around 1.5740
USD/JPY: will find support around 106.40 once again
Gold: This current push could extend to 935 today, before running out of steam. Support around 927 today, followed by 915
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Fri, Jul 25 2008, 04:50 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 24
Thu, Jul 24 2008, 06:23 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD again rallied overnight, hitting one-month highs against the Yen, and a 2 week high against the EUR. The dollar was helped in part by the Beige Book survey, showing price pressures increasing, although growth was slowing. The Stagflation genie has been let out of the bottle folks!!!
Crude oil continued to slide, now over $20 off its all time highs, made less than 2 weeks ago. Gold and silver followed suit, and could fall further still before the week's out.
As expected, the RBNZ cut rates earlier today, and signalled further cuts in coming months.
Today's German IFO and US Housing data will be closely watched to see if the USD can continue its recovery, or if the EUR can bounce back some.
Data for today
GER: IFO
UK: Retails Sales
US: Existing Home Sales
For today:
EUR: Buyers should wait for 1.5600-1.5580 before establishing small longs
USD/JPY: Broke the downtrend overnight, looks set for 109.50 now. Buy dips to 107.40 today
Gold: Buyers should look to enter around 895-905. Market should be capped around 930 today.
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Thu, Jul 24 2008, 06:23 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 23
Wed, Jul 23 2008, 05:01 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD firmed up overnight unexpectedly on the back of weaker crude oil, and comments by US officials looking to talk up the greenback.
While Paulson re-iterated that a strong dollar was in the interest of the US, the Fed's Plosser called for the Fed to raise rates sooner rather than later to curb inflation. Doesn't this bloke realise that monetary policy is no longer a valid tool to fight inflation!!
The EUR led the way lower for the currencies, and could find it hard to get back above 1.5820 for today atleast. Precious metals also came off sharply on the back of the USD and crude, but i think we might some more downside just yet.
US stocks have more to go in this dead cat bounce, the USD also looks to have some more upside in the short-term, and crude is looking decidedly soft under $130. These 3 factors together will see the EUR heading lower today, and so gold and silver will also follow.
Lastly, the RBNZ is expected to cut rates later today.
Data for today
UK: BOE Minutes
US: Beige Book
US: Crude Inventories
NZ: RBNZ Meeting
For today:
EUR: the 1.5820 level should offer good resistance today. Look to sell ahead of this level
USD/JPY: Coming up towards a downtrend line dating back to Dec 07. A break thru would set us up for a move towards 109 again. Buy dips to 106.80 today
AUD/NZD: Look to buy dips towards 1.2740, ahead of RBNZ meeting.
Gold: looking for a re-test of 925, outside chance of 905 in coming weeks.
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Wed, Jul 23 2008, 05:01 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 22
Tue, Jul 22 2008, 04:44 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD lost ground overnight as the woes about the US financial sector resurfaced again. This is starting to become like a broken record now, and unless we can get some real meltdowns, the market will be come conditioned to this doom and gloom, turning such news releases into positive, rather than negative items.
Gold and silver firmed up on the back of this USD weakness, and firmer crude prices. I think we might see some more upside, before prices come off around about Thursday.
Data for today
UK: BOE's King speaks
US: Richmond Fed Index
For today:
EUR: Keen buyers can look to get in around 1.5910, while the conservatives should wait for 1.5870-60 before buying.
USD/JPY: look to buy dips towards 106.30, looks headed for the mid 107's again.
GBP/JPY: buying dips into the low 212's today.
AUD/NZD: Look to buy dips towards 1.2740, ahead of RBNZ meeting on Thurs.
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Tue, Jul 22 2008, 04:44 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 21
Mon, Jul 21 2008, 04:58 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD continued to regain further lost ground on Friday, helped by comments from Trichet and news that Citibank's loss was smaller than expected. Huh, when was the last time a bank losing money was good news??
Trichet's comments regarding the risks to growth in Europe, and an increasing chance of no further rate hikes is starting to get some thinking that the Eur will be unable to make convincing gains above 1.5900 or 1.6000. If this week's IFO data shows further business sentiment weakness, look for renewed pressure on the EUR.
Looking at the charts, i'm thinking we just might see some USD strength this week, as we start to test some critical support areas in EUR, JPY, AUD, and the precious metals.
Data for today
Little of any consequence till middle of the week.
For today:
EUR: If you're buying, work a tight stop. A break under 1.5790 could be very telling
USD/JPY: look to buy dips towards 106.40, looks headed for the mid 107's again.
AUD/NZD: Look to buy dips towards 1.2740, ahead of RBNZ meeting on Thurs.
Gold: A break under 948 could lead to a fall towards the 925 or even deeper.
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Mon, Jul 21 2008, 04:58 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 18
Fri, Jul 18 2008, 04:35 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD gained further ground overnight, buoyed again by falling crude oil and rallying stocks. This coincidental fall in crude and rise in shares just doesn't smell right to me.
The USD's gains over the last couple of days needs to be looked at with caution, given the state of uncertainty surrounding the US economy, and their financial markets. I tend to favour looking for levels at which we can sell the USD, rather than sell the EUR or buy the USD.
Crude oil should find some support in the high $120's today, which will be supportive for gold around 950-945, and inturn for silver around 18.40.
In Asian trade today, the USD firmed for a short while following comments from Trichet citing risks to growth, and the impact of current market corrections.
Data for today
Little of any consequence
For today:
EUR: Best buying down around 1.5820- 1.5800.
AUD/NZD: Look to buy dips towards 1.2680, as the uptrend continues
Gold: happy to be buying in the mid 950's. Be prepared for a quick stab under 950 soon.
Silver: heading for 18.20-40, which will prove to be a good buying zone.
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Fri, Jul 18 2008, 04:35 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 17
Thu, Jul 17 2008, 04:55 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD regained some lost ground overnight, as CPI came out strong, Bernanke talked up inflation and currency intervention, the Fed minutes hinted at a rate hike, crude came off again, and stocks rose.
Unbelievably, following last night's news/data, there's a few so-called commentators out there again calling for rate hikes before year's end, despite earlier in the week these same clowns suggesting the Fed may need to cut rates again to save the economy post-Fannie and Freddie, and soft economic data.
In Asian trade today we've seen the USD come off against the majors as a story out of the FT discussed Sovereign Wealth Funds looking to reduce their USD exposure.
The precious metals came off in sympathy with crude oil, and on the back of the USD, although silver held in better than gold did. More downside can be expected in the metals.
Data for today
US: Housing Starts
US: Building Permits
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Philly Fed
For today:
EUR: the 1.5870 level should prove good resistance today. Best buying down around 1.5780.
JPY: good selling up around 105.90.
GBP/JPY: look at selling a move towards 210.70 today
AUD/NZD: i'm a seller around 1.2650 today
Gold: happy to be buying in the mid 950's
Silver: heading for 18.20-40, which will prove to be a good buying zone.
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Thu, Jul 17 2008, 04:55 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 16
Wed, Jul 16 2008, 04:43 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD fell to a new all-time low against the EUR overnight on persistent fears for the US economy, but bounced back in NY as crude oil fell, and comments by Dumb and Dumber momentarily re-assured a nervous world.
Bush said he was upbeat on the US economy, but no-one believed him. Bernanke was grim on his growth assessment but kept talking up inflation so that got the market thinking about higher rates next year. Still no-one is mentioning the s-word - stagflation. The market remains ready to sell any sort of recovery in the USD, particularly against the traditional "flight-to-quality" plays, the swiss franc and yen.
The AUD hit another 25 year high, at 0.9851, before slipping as the USD recovered. Earlier today, the head of the Australian central bank came out slightly more dovish than expected in a speech, pushing the Aussie back down towards 0.9750. Parity again appears a long way away.
Crude oil had its biggest one-day drop in 17 years as traders again thought of how demand would fall as the US economy slowed. Gold and silver managed to hold most of their ground despite the fall in crude, although silver did slip more than gold.
Data for today
EU: CPI
US: CPI
US: Industrial Production
US: Bernanke Part-2
US: Crude Oil Inventories
US: FOMC Minutes
For today:
A further correction in the USD today would give us a great opportunity to get short once again.
EUR: would be good buying back down at 1.5800. Before this level, light support at 1.5880, 1.5840
JPY: would be good selling up around 105.90. Before this, immediate resistance at 104.90, 105.30
Gold: needs to hold the support at 967 to prevent a deeper move towards the mid 950's where it's good buying indeed.
Silver: good buying available around 18.40, which i think we'll see today.
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Wed, Jul 16 2008, 04:43 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 15
Tue, Jul 15 2008, 04:30 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
Overnight, the USD firmed early, as expected, following comments from Paulson regarding Fannie and Freddie. The EUR was pushed down to 1.5840, before bouncing in NY to finish back above 1.5900
Today in Asia, the USD has been sold off further as the market realises that no matter what the US government says about rescuing the two F's, the credit crisis remains, the housing sector is still shaky, and crude oil is still going higher so grwoth will remain sluggish. Basically, there is very little reason to be buying the USD at the moment.
Bernanke's speaking later today, with the market looking for some insight into the Big B's thoughts on how this new credit crisis will impact on monetary policy and the economy.
The Reserve Bank of Australia came out with the minutes of their July meeting, showing that the bank has taken a neutral stance on rates - much of it was expected. The AUD ignored this news, and rallied today more on the back of USD weakness.
BOJ have just ended their meeting and announced no change in rates, as expected.
Gold and silver continued to trade higher on the USD weakness. With little reason to buy the USD at the moment, I cant see the metals pulling back too far in the next little while.
Data for today
UK: CPI
UK: RPI
US: PPI (alot of PI figures today)
US: Retail Sales
US: Bernanke speaks
For today:
Alot of the move for today has already happened in Asia, and with alot of data out today, i'd be inclined to leave it alone in case we get a sharp snap back in the USD as it sucks in some weak Asian shorts.
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Tue, Jul 15 2008, 04:30 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 14
Mon, Jul 14 2008, 04:25 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD fell across the board on Friday as new credit fears came to the fore following talk of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae requiring a government bail-out. (with names like that, no wonder the companies need assistance)
The EUR/USD has risen to 1.5970 in early trade today on the back of friday's gains, but the USD is starting to show some life following comments from Paulson suggesting the government was ready to provide assitance. Keep in mind that this will be positive short-term, but longer term the market will realise that this merely translates into the government taking over the debts of a public company - not a good precedent to be setting.
The AUD hit a new 25 year high today at 0.9710, on the back of the USD weakness.
Crude oil also jumped to a new high above US$147, they say it was on supply concerns again, but i'm thinking it just went up out of sympathy with everything else. This, along with the USD slide helped gold and silver to rally strongly. Also, the fact that I closed out my gold longs at 925 has no doubt lifted this market to greater heights.
Data for today
Nothing of any great note, but watch for further comments by US officials regarding Fannie and Freddie.
For today:
USD/JPY: sell strength towards 106.70 today
EUR/USD: buying dips to 1.5840
Bear in mind though that we may see some USD strength today following friday's slide and an attempt by US officials to talk positive.
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Mon, Jul 14 2008, 04:25 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 11
Fri, Jul 11 2008, 00:31 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD fell against most majors overnight as renewed credit fears hit the market after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares tumbled on capital concerns. Comments by Poole kicked off the slide when he said that both these government sponsored agencies were "insolvent".
The slide was USD/JPY dip below 107, and EUR/USD touch 1.5800. GBP struggled to make any real ground against the USD after the BOE left rates unchanged, and the market thinking the next move in UK rates will be down.
Crude oil rallied $5 on the back of falling invesntories and on-going geo-political tensions. Gold and silver were given a leg-up as well, on the back of crude and the weaker USD.
Data for today
US: Trade
US: Univ. of Michigan Confidence
For today:
USD/JPY: wedge developing with a break above 107.70, or below 106.70 looked for
EUR/USD: buying dips to 1.5730 today
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Fri, Jul 11 2008, 00:31 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 9
Wed, Jul 9 2008, 03:05 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD rebounded across the board overnight, helped by crude losing another $5, and Bernanke suggesting that the Fed was willing to extend its emergency facility beyond the end of this year for big Wall Street firms.
The Pending Home Sales data showed a steep drop, but the negative result had a limited impact on the dollar as the market's focus remained on crude oil.
The fall in crude, under $140, also weighed on the precious metals, with further downside expected in coming days/weeks.
The market also kept one eye on the G8 summit in Japan, waiting for some sort of statement regarding exchange rates. As usual, nothing has appeared so far and i'd be surprised if we see any market moving comment before the summit ends.
Data for today
EU: GDP
For today:
USD/JPY: to find support around 107.10 on the day, looks headed for 108 again
GBP/USD: opportunity to sell strength towards 1.9760, albeit a little far away currently
EUR/USD: sell strength towards 1.5700 today
Gold/USD: to be capped around 920 today, looks like we might see sub-900 prices soon
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Wed, Jul 9 2008, 03:05 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 8
Tue, Jul 8 2008, 00:36 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
A fairly lacklustre FX session overnight, with most of the focus centering on crude oil, and its $4 slide.
The USD managed to firm up against the Yen as stocks recouped some of last week's losses, but weakened late in NY against the EUR and GBP. Crude oil appears to be again the lead indicator for the FX, metals, and stock markets. Weakness in crude oil will help the USD, and will lead the precious metals lower. I think this is what we will see this week, particularly in the absence of any major economic data in the US, and ahead of this week's G8 meeting in Japan.
Gold had a stab down to 915 on the back of weaker crude prices, and as the EUR was sold-off down to 1.5610, but when the EUR found buyers late in NY, gold also bounced back to be trading around 925 early in Asia.
Data for today
US: Pending Home Sales
For today:
USD/JPY: to find support around 106.80 on the day, looks headed for 108 again
GBP/USD: opportunity to sell strength towards 1.9820
Gold/USD: to be capped around 927 today, looking for a re-test of 910 in coming days
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Tue, Jul 8 2008, 00:36 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 7
Mon, Jul 7 2008, 01:24 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
While the US was off celebrating with turkey and crackers on Friday, the EUR was sliding lower, following on from Thursday's weakness when the ECB signalled it wasn't planning another rate rise and after US jobs data did not deliver a big downside surprise.
Following on from the ECB meeting, several ECB policymakers re-iterated Trichet's stance on Friday. Additionally, a Reuters poll showed there was only a 30% chance of another rate hike by the ECB this year. The market is fast pricing in that the ECB, like other central banks has the double edged sword of rising inflation, and slowing growth - the spectre of Stagflation has returned.
With the ECB, RBA, RBNZ all on a neutral stance, and the BOE needing to adopt a similar approach, I have the feeling that we may see the USD rebound in the last half of '08 on the back of the others weakening rather than any new found strength in the greenback. Those USD Index Calls i spoke about previously could start to look very good!
Data for today
UK: Industrial Production
For today:
USD/JPY: to find support around 106.50 on the day
EUR/USD: to find selling pressure around 1.5700 today.
USD/CAD: support around 1.0140 remains intact
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Mon, Jul 7 2008, 01:24 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 4
Thu, Jul 3 2008, 23:48 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD rallied across the board on the back of better than expected payrolls data, and a less aggressive tone from the ECB in the after meeting comments.
Payrolls fell 62k, the sixth straight month of declines, but it was as expected, and not as bearish as alot of the market had thought. The ECB raised rates by 25bps, as expected, but then Trichet commented that the current level of rates would help the ECB achieve price stability. That is, "we are now taking a wait and see approach".
This is what I said repeatedly this week ahead of yesterday's ECB meeting: "I'm thinking the EUR's downside will be limited going into Thursday, then the ECB hikes as expected, but then Trichet isnt as hawkish as the market expects, leading the EUR to sell-off. It could be a case of "buy the rumour, sell the fact" this week. The EUR/USD could end the week trapped within the recent 1.5300-1.5800 range as the weak US growth picture keeps it well supported, but the potentail for weaker growth in Europe could limit its ability to retest 1.6000 again."
I love it when a plan comes together!!!
Data for today
US: Markets closed for Independance Day holiday
For today:
USD/JPY: to find support around 106.50 on the day
EUR/USD: to find selling pressure around 1.5720 today.
USD/CAD: support around 1.0140 remains intact
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Thu, Jul 3 2008, 23:48 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 2
Wed, Jul 2 2008, 00:55 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD gave back most of Monday's gains against the EUR, and slipped further against the Yen as traders opted for more risk averse trades.
While crude edged higher, the precious metals led the way with solid gains in both gold and silver overnight, helped by the weaker USD, and the need to play catch-up with crude oil.
The focus is now on Super Thursday. The ECB meeting will be followed by June's Payrolls data as Friday is 4th July, Independance Day. I'm thinking the EUR's downside will be limited going into Thursday, then the ECB hikes as expected, but then Trichet isnt as hawkish as the market expects, leading the EUR to sell-off. It could be a case of "buy the rumour, sell the fact" this week. The EUR/USD could end the week trapped within the recent 1.5300-1.5800 range as the weak US growth picture keeps it well supported, but the potentail for weaker growth in Europe could limit its ability to retest 1.6000 again.
Data for today
US: ADP Employment Report - good indicator of the payrolls number
US: Crude Oil Inventories
For today:
USD/JPY: resistance today at 106.20, followed by 106.40
EUR/USD: trying to again break thru 1.5800 in Asia today. Light support around 1.5760, with better buying available around 1.5710.
Ahead of the ECB and payrolls tomorrow i favour the USD/JPY trade for today
USD/CAD: support around 1.0170 today, as it starts to trend higher
GBP/JPY: sell strength towards 211.80-212.00
GBP crosses: look to start establishing long-term shorts in GBP against the USD and JPY. the BOE cant keep raising rates to fight inflation while the housing sector and the wider economy keeps suffering. Something will have to give in the next 2-3 months.
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Wed, Jul 2 2008, 00:55 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today July 1
Mon, Jun 30 2008, 00:39 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD managed to regain some lost ground overnight, helped by the fact that the EUR was up near the top of its recent 1.5300-1.5800 range. Any further downside will be limited i think to the mid 1.5600 level, ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday.
Precious metals came off on the back of the firmer USD, and look like trading lower over coming days. Gold looks like it could retest 910, and Silver back toward $17.
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets today on interest rates, but it's a unanimous feeling that we'll see no hike today, with most focus on the post-meeting statement. I think we might see a slightly dovish tone in the statement, which could weigh on the AUD.
Looking to the week ahead, and all the focus will be on Super Thursday. The ECB meeting will be followed by July's Payrolls data in the US, given that Friday is 4th July, Independance Day. I'm thinking the EUR's downside will be limited going into Thursday, then the ECB hikes as expected, but then Trichet isnt as hawkish as the market expects, leading the EUR to sell-off. It could be a case of "buy the rumour, sell the fact" this week. The EUR/USD could end the week trapped within the recent 1.5300-1.5800 range as the weak US growth picture keeps it well supported, but the potentail for weaker growth in Europe could limit its ability to retest 1.6000 again.
Data for today
AUS: RBA Meeting
US: ISM Maufacturing
US: Construction Spending
For today:
USD/JPY: resistance today at 106.30-40, followed by 106.75
EUR/USD: to be capped around 1.5790, support around 1.5730, with a break of this leading to a push down towards 1.5660
USD/CAD: support around 1.0150 today, as it looks set for another move above 1.0200
GBP crosses: look to start establishing long-term shorts in GBP against the USD and JPY. the BOE cant keep raising rates to fight inflation while the housing sector and the wider economy keeps suffering. Something will have to give in the next 2-3 months.
To find out more about how we've returned over 200% in 8 months trading commodites please email.
Published on Mon, Jun 30 2008, 00:39 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today June 27
Thu, Jun 26 2008, 23:58 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Overview
The USD slumped overnight, losing over 1% against the Yen and Swiss Franc, and trading at 3 weeks lows against the Euro.
The market continued to digest the post FOMC statement, viewing the Fed as not hawkish enough, while seeing the ECB as keenly hawkish ahead of next week's ECB meeting.
The AUD/USD was unable to take advantage of the USD weakness, being sold off from 0.9600 down 0.9560 by an unnamed Asian central bank.
Crude Oil rallied more than $5, and the Dow slumped to 21 month lows, sending shivers thru the USD, and lifting Gold back above 910.
The market should remain with this negative USD bias today, with little in the way of major data due ahead of the weekend.
Data for today
UK: GDP
EU: Consumer Confidence
US: PCE
US: Michigan Consumer Sentiment
For today:
USD/JPY: to meet stiff selling around 107.00 on the day
EUR/USD: to find support around 1.5720, followed by 1.5690
GBP crosses: look to start establishing long-term shorts in GBP against the USD and JPY. the BOE cant keep raising rates to fight inflation while the housing sector and the wider economy keeps suffering. Something will have to give in the next 2-3 months.
for further information regarding stops and profit targets please email.
Published on Thu, Jun 26 2008, 23:58 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today June 26
Fri, Jun 20 2008, 10:13 GMT
by Abdul Khan
The USD steadied late after falling immediately after the FOMC meeting.
The Fed announced no change rates, as expected, and in the statement appeared ever so slightly hawkish. The Fed warned of inflationary risks, and suggested that the risks of a downturn in growth had diminished. The market has no scaled back their expectations of a US rate hike this year, although i dont know anyone in their right mind who could have expected a rate hike this year.
The market was also spooked by further comments from ECB officials warning of persistently high inflation, ahead of next week's ECB meeting. Ahead of that meeting, look for the EUR to remain well bid against the USD and JPY.
Precious metals remained subdued following the FOMC, the weaker dollar helping to limit any downside, but the risk remains for Gold to retest the 850 area, and for SIlver to have a stab under $16.
Data today:
US: GDP
US: Core PCE
US: Weekly Jobless
US: Existing Home Sales
For today:
- EUR/USD: immediatte support around 1.5620-30, followed by 1.5580
- USD/JPY: a break above 108.15, would trigger a move towards 108.50. Remains supported around 107.40
- Gold to remain capped around 890 today. A break under 880 cant be ruled out today.
- We're looking at Buying Dollar Index ATM Calls, 6 months to expiry. Email for more details
- If you'd like to know how we have returned over 200% in 7 months, trading commodities please email me.
Published on Fri, Jun 20 2008, 10:13 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today June 20
Thu, Jun 19 2008, 00:37 GMT
by Abdul Khan
Strong UK retail sales, and US wholesale inflation were the highlights in the FX market overnight.
The stronger than expected UK retail sales, coupled with comments from the BOE Governor has the market pricing in a UK rate hike, to bring inflation back under the 2% target.
The headline Philly Fed Index showed manufacturing contracting, but the prices paid component suggests some underlying inflation could be coming thru. This data helped to give the USD a lift across the board.
The weaker crude oil prices, coupled with the firmer USD capped further strength in the precious metals, despite early strength during the London session. Both gold and silver managed to break thru significant downtrend lines, which will now work as support for the next move up.
Data today:
Nothing of any importance
For today:
- EUR/USD is currently mid-range at 1.5500. A break below 1.5460 would lead to further downside, meanwhile immediate resistance sits at 1.5550. I'd be happy to sit it out today.
- Gold has immediate support around 896, but further weakness in crude oil today could force a break of this level, pushing us back down to 886.
for stops and profit targets please email me.
Published on Thu, Jun 19 2008, 00:37 GMT
0
0
FX Levels for Today
Thu, Jun 12 2008, 15:04 GMT
by Abdul Khan
The dollar declined Tuesday after switching course several times during the North American session and failing to get any help from remarks by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. The greenback had initially strengthened in New York on the back of supportive U.S. data, but retraced those gains as Paulson delivered his first policy speech since taking office last month. Paulson also gave several television interviews and made other public appearances during a visit to New York.
Yet the dollar's fall came less from what Paulson said than what he didn't say. The Treasury Secretary broke little new ground, instead reiterating that a strong dollar is the interests of the nation. It was the return of the market's focus to the Federal Reserve's meeting next week, and the likelihood of a pause in its rate-hike cycle, that helped to push the greenback back down.
Early Tuesday, a key inflation measure - the personal consumption expenditures price index - rose 0.2% in June. Stronger-than-expected July manufacturing data published by the Institute for Supply Management added to the dollar's early strength.
Investors are now awaiting July nonfarm payroll data set for release Friday, which could further affect market expectations for an August rate hike by the Fed.
Locally, the RBA announces its rate decision this morning, due in 90mins. Widely expected that we’ll get a 25bps tightening, look to sell AUD if get a surprise “no move”.
Silver needs to get above 11.80 to suggest last night’s strength can continue.
Data for today:
AUS: RBA interest rate decision
For today:
- Sell AUD/USD on-stop entry just prior to RBA decision
Published on Thu, Jun 12 2008, 15:04 GMT
Income Generation Strategies
| Level 26, Waterfront Pl. 1 Eagle Street, Brisbane, Qld. 4001
http://www.incomegenerationstrategy.com/ | abdul.khan@tricom.com.au
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
- All opinions and materials provided on our website and in our e-communications are provided by appropriately licensed individuals where financial advice may be deemed to have been given. Incomegenerationstrategy.com is an e-portal to our contributors and as such does not provide financial advice in its own right. We will always mark information according to the contributing alliance partner and you are welcome to check the bona fides of any of our contributors directly with their parent companies or at www.asic.gov.au. Incomegenerationstrategy.com is solely focused on developing, arranging and promoting products and events and does not hold a proper authority. This website does not operate under the auspices of an ASIC license and incomegenerationstrategy.com does not provide financial advice at any time. Any communications that may be construed as such are provided solely by our contributors.Interested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!
GET CASH BACK FOR YOUR TRADES! Learn more about the Pip Rebate Program
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
©2009 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.