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FOMC Outcome Might Determine Dollars Future!

Wed, Jan 30 2008, 14:27 GMT
by Lena Manousarides

FXGreece

The big day has finally arrived with FOMC meeting being the main hot event for all global markets.

        Yesterday, we had durable goods orders out of US, printing a better number and therefore giving greenback a bid, taking EUR/USD down towards 1.47. The pair struggles to move either way, moving within tight range of 1.4735-1.4790.

        Today we have ADP report coming out, which will eventually give us an idea of how the non farm payrolls will be this Friday, with current analysts estimations giving it a worse than previous number of only 65.000 new jobs. The ADP report is giving a 40000 number which can weigh on the dollar in the already negative market sentiment. The other economic data is GDP which again is predicted to print a lower number which again might give more reasons for selling the dollar ahead of tonight’s meeting.

        EUR/USD just broke 1.48 level and it looks good to test 1.4825, however traders are not willing to take positions before the news.

        GBP/USD again is trading within tight range of 1.9875-1.9925 and a clear break of the latter level might take the pair towards the psychological 2. We do see resilience in the pound at the moment, as the latest data were not good for the English currency. Analysts predict that BOE will give us more cuts in the coming months; however it will be vital to see what the inflation numbers will be in the coming days.

        The big event of the day, the FMOC meeting will give us the next big move and as the forecasts predict a cut of 25 points, any surprise either way might cause a chaos in the already shaken markets. All market participants have already priced in another cut, but after the sudden move by Bernanke last week to cut rates by 75 points, have made the bank to seem less reliable and traders clearly have lost faith in the whole monetary policy. Many are saying that the move by the FED to keep cutting rates have come little too late as the damage in the economy has already happened. Whatever the outcome one thing is for sure, dollar will be the main winner or looser and the latter seems more probable.

        So, keep your eyes and ears open today and wait for market “turbulence” just before and right after the announcement.

        EUR/USD has a potential to meet 1.50 in the coming days if data continue to disappoint, however the upside move might be contained if DOW JONES and the rest of the markets plummet after the FOMC…

Published on  Wed, Jan 30 2008, 14:29 GMT