http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-11-04.htmlD ollar short-term strengthening  Swiss franc stable, thanks to SNB  Yen has rivals for carry trade US dollar EURUSD exceeded the 1.5 mark in the past few weeks, but only temporarily – and the development was followed by a significant countermovement as well. Profit-taking played an important part, but the slump on the stock exchanges was the decisive factor. It pushed up uncertainty, which in turn boosted the attractiveness of the US dollar. We cannot make any meaningful estimatesWed, 04 Nov 2009 12:43:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-11-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-10-21.htmlDollar at year lows EURCHF remains at 1.51 Yen highly volatile US dollar The dollar continued to depreciate over the past weeks, taking the US currency to a new year-low against the euro. EURUSD has not reached 1.5 yet, but it seems only a matter of time before the euro will be traded at above 1.5 US dollars. We cannot see any factors at this point in time that could put an end to the current trend. As for the immediate future, the next important macro data are only due for the beginning ofWed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-10-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-10-07.htmlDollar remains under pressure CHF still stable Yen: Interventions likely? US dollar The US dollar has recently found temporary support in weaker-than-expected US economy data. The market was not following the rationale of interest rate expectations, but based its movements on the idea that the flow of capital was still profoundly determined by the willingness to assume risk. However, after the massive economic slump in the past twelve months, interest rate hikes seem so remote that a slightlyWed, 07 Oct 2009 12:24:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-10-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-09-23.htmlDollar remains under pressure SNB sticks to expansive policy – for now Yen still strong – positive interest rate differential to USD US dollar The EUR/USD exchange rate rose above 1.44 about two weeks ago and remained on its upward path until recently, when it started to oscillate around 1.47. The data sets of both economic areas have only seen minor changes. Both Euroland and the USA will get out of the recession in the current quarter and post positive economic growth – with the USA probablyWed, 23 Sep 2009 12:11:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-09-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-08-26.htmlCurrencies without initiative Equity markets as decisive factor US dollar EURUSD has shown only little movement in the past weeks. The exchange rate fluctuated within the well-known band of 1.41 to 1.43. The data from both economic regions coincided in indicating a recovery, with Euroland coming up with the bigger (positive) surprises. However, ultimately this was not enough to induce any substantial positioning on the foreign exchange markets, which was not the least due to the holiday seasonWed, 26 Aug 2009 12:14:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-08-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-07-29.htmlUSD weaker – but short-term resistance at EURUSD 1.429 EURCHF stable Yen under influence of equity markets US dollar In the past two weeks, the euro strengthened vs. the US dollar by 2.4% to reach a level of 1.429. The US reporting season surprised to the upside, and the strong performance of the equity markets implied by the positive results is currently weakening the dollar, which is perceived as a safe haven in turbulent times. Furthermore, the euro is supported by the better than expectedWed, 29 Jul 2009 07:45:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-07-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-07-15.htmlEURCHF stabilizes close to 1.50 Yen stronger – renewal of mounting uncertainty US dollar The EURUSD has continued its volatile sideways movement around 1.40 in the last two weeks. After the ECB’s announcement to leave interest rates unchanged, the USD strengthened until 1.385 vs. the euro, but has come back since then. Today’s release of US retail sales indicates that the US should overcome the recession sooner than the Eurozone, but this has to be put in the context of the massivelyWed, 15 Jul 2009 11:25:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-07-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-07-01.htmlEURUSD: Sideways around 1.4 Swiss Franc weaker – thanks to SNB? USDJPY: 95 to 98 US dollar The EURUSD exchange rate has seen little movement in the past weeks, hovering around 1.4 and with any larger deviations being short-lived. Indeed, the underlying data would not have justified any large-scale fluctuations. The economic data on both sides of the Atlantic confirm a slow movement out of recession, which, however, has not been left yet. The US central bank did not change any of its monetaryWed, 01 Jul 2009 11:01:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-07-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-06-18.v02.htmlSNB “will resolutely counteract a strengthening of the franc vs. the euro” Yen stronger again US dollar At the beginning of the month, EURUSD reached a temporary high at 1.43. Since then, the euro has weakened vs. the dollar. In our view, this was above all a technical movement. After gains of 10% of the euro vs. the dollar since mid-April, a consolidation was to be expected, triggered by profit-taking of market participants. Nevertheless, the logic followed by markets changed noticeably. InThu, 18 Jun 2009 13:30:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-06-18.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-06-03.htmlCHF unimpressed by GDP data Yen sideways US dollar After the euro reached a new year-high vs. the dollar, downwards pressure on the USD mounted further until the EURUSD reached 1.43. Besides risks arising from the extreme monetary and fiscal policy of the US, which we have pointed out repeatedly, the rising oil price contributed to the recent weakening of the USD. After impressive losses for the US currency in a short period of time, a rebound might be seen. In the mid term though, risks forWed, 03 Jun 2009 09:40:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-06-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-05-28.htmlCHF: Careful balancing Yen stronger again US dollar The dollar continued to weaken over the last few weeks, prolonging a trend that began in the middle of April. However, in the past few days a sideways drift has become apparent after the euro failed to surpass the 2009 high set in mid March. Other reasons were likely the US retail sales figures and the slightly weaker US stock market, since expectations about how long the current financial and economic crisis will go on are still determiningThu, 28 May 2009 07:06:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-05-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-05-08.htmlDollar: Economic data triggers dollar weakening CHF: SNB sees deflationary threat Yen slightly weaker US dollar Further indicators pointing to a slowing economic decline in the most important markets led to the depreciation of the dollar. The foreign exchange markets thus followed yet again the rationale that the dollar would lose its status as safe haven and hence its attractiveness once the economic crisis has been overcome. Overall the losses of the dollar were of moderate nature, and theFri, 08 May 2009 10:47:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-05-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-04-23.htmlSlower equity markets support the dollar CHF sideways Yen slightly stronger US dollar The euro continued to decline against the dollar during the past weeks. It even broke through the value of slightly above 1.31, which had been a bottom twice previously. There was no real reason for the depreciation of the euro. The macro data of the USA were only marginally better than those of Euroland, if at all. The dollar was surely supported by the waning dynamics on the equity markets. The foreignThu, 23 Apr 2009 07:32:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-04-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-04-10.v02.htmlCHF: SNB against safe haven status USDJPY breaks through 100 US dollar EURUSD oscillated in a range of 1.32 to 1.35 last week. The decisive determinant for the movement within this band was the sentiment on the stock exchanges with the well-known rationales: rising equity markets were interpreted as sign of an earlier-than-expected end of the current crisis and therefore a lower volume of “safehaven” inflows into the US dollar, and the dollar depreciated. Falling share markets triggered theFri, 10 Apr 2009 14:29:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-04-10.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-03-26.htmlDollar tumbles after FOMC decision CHF weaker, thanks to SNB Yen: Sideways with variations US dollar After the latest meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the US Fed the US dollar took one giant step down. This move was caused by the surprising announcement by the Fed to buy a massive USD 1,150bn worth of securities, which is equal to about 8% of GDP. This additional capital in the economy inflates the value of the dollar, because it is not based on any economic output. EURUSD shot upThu, 26 Mar 2009 11:29:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-03-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-03-13.htmlYen: End of weakening? US dollar The US dollar has been rather static over the past two weeks. In spite of a (half-hearted) attempt to break through EURUSD 1.25, the exchange rate oscillated around 1.26 for most of the time. This is just more proof that the strengthening of the US dollar that started at the beginning of the year has turned into a sideways movement. The next trend that we should see is the weakening of the dollar. The steps taken by the US authorities, which we have alreadyFri, 13 Mar 2009 06:17:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-03-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-02-27.htmlEURCHF remaining around 1.50 Yen: significant weakening – of transient nature? US dollar The strong phase of the dollar has come to an end for now, and we should see the US currency decline to lower levels in the not too distant future. However, this will be more of a technical reaction, given that the generally gloomy picture on both sides of the Atlantic has not changed. This also means that the recent rise of the dollar has not been justified – in fact, a sideways tendency around EURUSD 1.3Fri, 27 Feb 2009 05:58:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-02-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-02-12.htmlEURCHF oscillating around 1.50 Yen persistently at strong levels US dollar As the ECB left the interest rate unchanged at 2% at their February meeting, we expect – given the weak economy and rapidly recessing inflation – a 50bp rate cut in March. Further rate cuts cannot be ruled out, but ECB President Trichet insinuated that rate cuts to zero do not seem appropriate. The ECB still has a greater margin for rate cuts than the Fed, but we think that rate cuts should be over by the second half ofThu, 12 Feb 2009 07:25:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-02-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-01-29.htmlSwiss franc sideways – SNB intervenes verbally to prevent strengthening Yen still stronger – BoJ expansive US dollar In the last two weeks, three member countries of the Eurozone have been downgraded by one notch by Standard & Poor’s, which led to discussions on the stability of the monetary union. In addition, the European Commission revised the 2009 growth forecast significantly downwards to -1.9%. Equity markets reacted to the negative news flow with losses, and the US dollar gainedThu, 29 Jan 2009 07:38:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-01-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-01-15.htmlUSD: Correction after previous losses EURCHF approaches 1.45 again Yen remains strong US dollar The USD has regained some ground since the beginning of the year. A correction after the previous losses caused this development, even though the movement accelerated due to the upcoming interest rate decision by the ECB. The indicators from both economies on both sides of the Atlantic confirmed the massive economic downturn. The difference is that the ECB still has a chance of responding withThu, 15 Jan 2009 11:32:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2009-01-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-12-26.htmlFranc makes a countermove Yen remains strong US dollar In the past weeks, the USD plunged steeply. After the upper limit of the trading range, which had held up for round seven weeks, was broken through, the EURUSD exchange rate moved fast towards the mark of 1.4. This movement was additionally encouraged by the bigger-than-expected interest rate cut of the US central bank and by the statements of ECB President Trichet that the ECB might possibly refrain from cutting interest rates in January.Fri, 26 Dec 2008 11:30:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-12-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-12-12.htmlSwiss franc: Still weak after rate cut Yen: Remains strong US dollar In the past two weeks as well, the EURUSD exchange rate continued on the sideways movement that started at the end of October. It is no wonder considering that generally the environment did not change: The insecurity fuelled by the financial market crisis persisted and some very weak economic data were released on both sides of the Atlantic. Insecurity is certainly the determining factor right now for the EURUSD exchangeFri, 12 Dec 2008 12:34:46 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-12-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-11-27.htmlRate cut: Weaker franc Yen close to historical highs – lack of room for rate cuts US dollar There wasn’t much news from the EUR/USD exchange rate in the past weeks. Decisive for the movements within the bandwidth of 1.24 to 1.29 was the extent of the insecurity on financial markets. Bad news – even if it came from the US – caused the USD to firm, while easing – like the bailout plan for Citigroup – pushed the USD down. Thus, the relative attractiveness of the US dollar is being determined byThu, 27 Nov 2008 11:27:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-11-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-11-13.htmlSwiss franc: continuing strength Yen: Crisis prompts capital transfers US dollar In the past two weeks, the EURUSD exchange rate moved into a sideways channel. Even though the situation on the financial markets has stabilized, it is still fragile. The macro indicators on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean are showing a massive contraction of the economy, which is due in both cases to the insecurity caused by the financial market crisis. How long this phase of anxiety will last and how strong itThu, 13 Nov 2008 12:33:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-11-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-11-03.htmlSwiss franc: 9% in one month; All-time high Yen: Firmer vs. all currencies Special theme: Volatility Exchange rate fluctuations higher than ever US dollar The firming of the USD did not only continue in the past few weeks, but even picked up speed. The reasons were not easily discernible, because neither was the news from the US relatively good nor was the news from Euroland relatively bad. The fact is that the (gloomy) outlook for the two economic regions is being determined by the financialMon, 03 Nov 2008 09:17:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-11-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-10-16.htmlSwiss franc firms USDJPY broke through 100 US dollar EUR/USD movements were lately entirely determined by the evolution of the financial crisis. During short phases of relief, the dollar weakened, but this was regularly followed by a strengthening. There are several reasons for the dollar to “benefit” from the crisis: when uncertainty prevails, the dollar is perceived as a safe haven, i.e. capital is transferred from riskier, less common currencies to the US dollar. Another important aspect isThu, 16 Oct 2008 07:52:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-10-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-10-03.htmlSwiss franc: Safe haven Yen continues firm US dollar The financial market crisis remains the dominant theme for now. The rescue package proposed by Treasury Secretary Paulson with a volume of USD 700bn had been euphorically welcomed just two weeks ago. However, when the discussions on the bailout in Congress become drawn out, sentiment on markets dimmed. The temporary low was reached yesterday when the House of Representatives rejected the rescue package. This came as a shock to markets, sinceFri, 03 Oct 2008 09:01:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-10-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-09-18.htmlSwiss franc : return of the “safe haven”? Yen appreciating fast – for how long? US dollar Right now, it is hard to ascertain which determinants are driving the EUR/USD exchange rate. Until recently, it was the oil price, even though the relationship between low oil price and firmer USD was not completely plausible. Accordingly, this negative correlation ended when it became known that the US investment bank Lehman Brothers had filed for Chapter 11 and the US insurance company AIG was in direThu, 18 Sep 2008 07:04:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-09-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-09-04.htmlSwiss franc sideways Yen moves stronger – Euro weakness accentuated US dollar The weak economic data from Euroland as well as the falling oil price caused the USD to firm further. As soon as it became clear that hurricane Gustav was not going to lastingly affect oil extraction in the Gulf of Mexico, the oil price dropped below USD 110, thus hitting the lowest value since April. For the USD, this meant a jump to the strongest level since the start of the year. However, the negative correlationThu, 04 Sep 2008 08:22:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-09-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-08-22.htmlSwiss franc moving sideways Euro weakens, also vs. yen US dollar The US dollar rallied in the past few weeks the likes of which haven’t been seen in a while. A similarly vigorous movement took place last in February and March, however, in the other direction. At the time, the financial market crisis and the rapid pace of interest rate cuts in the US created pressure on the USD. The situation in the US has not improved since then, but has rather at best stabilized. By contrast, in Euroland theFri, 22 Aug 2008 07:35:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-08-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-08-06.htmlNo interest rate upside potential for franc Yen firms slightly vs. euro US dollar The repeated attempts of the EUR/USD to surpass the mark of 1.60 at mid-month failed. Consequently, a countermovement set in that went below 1.55. This movement was driven primarily by the weaker economic data from Euroland, with the Ifo Index being the main supportive factor. Thus, this put a damper on any still lingering interest rate speculations. Additional support for the USD came from the declining oilWed, 06 Aug 2008 11:52:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-08-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-07-23.v02.htmlFranc moving sideways – short-lived negative correlation with stock markets Yen hits low vs. euro US dollar In the past few weeks, events on financial markets have been driven by frightening newsflows from the US financial sector. Speculations regarding the write-offs and/or amounts needed by the two mortgage lenders Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae caused unrest in the markets. The two institutions hold or guarantee loans totaling USD 5000bn, which is more than one-third of US GDP. Additionally, aWed, 23 Jul 2008 12:24:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-07-23.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-07-10.htmlFranc moves sideways – SNB in a conflict Yen in sideways channel close to low – until when? US dollar The latest interest rate decision-making meetings of the US Fed and of the ECB caused some movement in the forex markets. The two central banks still disappointed market participants speculating on future interest rate hikes and the EUR/USD is hovering around 1.56 now. Neither did this change after the ECB raised key lending rates in contrast to the Fed. The markets had been expecting the moveThu, 10 Jul 2008 11:12:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-07-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-06-25.htmlFranc follows short-term interest rate expectations Trichet and Bernanke statements weaken JPY US dollar The statements of the central banks at the beginning of the month kept the EUR/USD within a narrow bandwidth around 1.55. An interest rate hike by the ECB at the beginning of July seems practically certain. At the same time, the statements of the Chairman of the US Fed are still resonating in the market that point out the higher inflationary risks. Overall, the effects of the statementsWed, 25 Jun 2008 08:01:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-06-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-05-29.htmlEUR/USD up after release of Ifo data Franc firms in 2Q US dollar After the EUR/USD dropped to below 1.54, in the middle of the month a countermovement started. Initially due largely to technical factors, it gained more dynamic after the release of the German Ifo Index. This index, which is probably the most widely monitored economic barometer for Germany and thus also for Euroland, surprised market expectations positively. Subsequently, the euro advanced further, but has remained below itsThu, 29 May 2008 07:56:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-05-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-05-15.htmlSwiss Franc: expected to firm Yen slightly firmer US dollar Since the beginning of the month, the EURUSD has fluctuated within a bandwidth of 1.54 to 1.56. Thus, the weakening of the euro, which started out from EUR/USD 1.6 as of mid-April, was confirmed, though not continued. However, we expect a further gradual weakening of the euro. The most recent data indicated the start of a slowing economy in Euroland and the indicators to be released in the future are expected to point in the sameThu, 15 May 2008 08:00:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-05-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-04-16.htmlFirmer franc expected over longer term No market reaction to new BoJ Governor US dollar The US dollar weakened again in the first weeks of the month. The EUR came close to former all-time highs vs. the US currency, but ultimately did not rise over these. Generally, financial markets eased in many areas. Apart from the fears regarding the US economy, decisive for the sustained pressure on the US dollar were technical factors. Neither the decision at the latest interest rate meeting of the ECBWed, 16 Apr 2008 08:14:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-04-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-04-02.htmlEUR/USD shifts into sideways channel Yen: Sharp countermovement follows firming US dollar The USD recovered as sentiment stabilized on financial markets around the middle of March. But better-than-expected economic indicators for Euroland supported interest rates, thus driving the EUR/USD back in the direction of the all-time high of 1.59, which it has not yet reached though. For the time being, we expect a sideways movement within the most recent bandwidths. The principal risk that couldWed, 02 Apr 2008 12:09:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-04-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-03-22.htmlTurbulence on financial markets pushes USD down Risk aversion supports yen US dollar The worsening crisis on the financial market triggered a massive slump of the USD in the past few weeks. The financing difficulties of a hedge fund and the forced sale of the investment bank Bear Stearns aggravated the nervous mood on the markets. The massive inflow of liquidity by the US Fed helped to stabilize the situation a few times, but ultimately, the considerable increase of USD in circulation isSat, 22 Mar 2008 08:22:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-03-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-03-07.htmlCHF interest rate decision in March Yen firms again US dollar In the past few weeks, the EUR/USD rose above the mark of 1.50, pushing the USD to new historic lows. This movement was triggered by the slightly better-than-expected data from Euroland as well as by the pessimistic statements on the US economy by the Fed Chairman. The latter depressed interest rate expectations for the US slightly downwards again, thus clearing the way for a weakening of the US dollar. The change in interest rateFri, 07 Mar 2008 06:28:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/forex-news/2008-03-07.html