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European and US summary

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US GDP Surges, EUR Advances

Thu, Oct 29 2009, 21:57 GMT
by Korman Tam

Forexnews.com

10/29/2009 2:00 PM: EUR/$..1.4832 $/JPY..91.51 GBP/$..1.6547 $/CHF..1.0183 AUD/$..0.9169 $/CAD..1.0671

US GDP Surges, EUR Advances

The dollar relinquished its previous session’s strength against the majors, falling toward the 1.4850-level against the euro and the 1.6602-handle versus the British pound. The US equity bourses rebounded with the Dow Jones advancing by 1.65%, the S&P 500 advancing by 1.84% and the Nasdaq up by nearly 1.7% by the afternoon session. Crude oil also climbed back above the $80-per barrel mark.

Optimism over the outlook for the US economy was reinforced by reports released earlier in the morning – prompting traders to jump back into riskier assets and sending the euro higher. The advanced reading of Q3 GDP sharply reversed the previous quarter’s decline of 0.7% and beat consensus estimates for an increase of 3.3%, instead surging by 3.5%. The advanced Q3 sales component of GDP advanced by 2.5%, compared with 0.7% from Q2 while the headline PCE index increased by 2.8% from 1.4% previously. Weekly jobless claims fell by less than expected, marginally lower to 530k from 531k a week earlier.

The calendar for Friday consists of September personal income, personal consumption, PCE, core PCE, NAPM, Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Following the disappointing Conference Board’s consumer confidence earlier this week, traders will focus on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, expected to decline to 70.0 in October from 73.5 a month earlier. The expectations component is forecasted to decline to 69.0 from 73.5, while the current conditions index is seen slipping to 72.1 from 73.4.
 
Euro Regains Footing

The euro recouped its previous session losses on the heels of the stronger than expected advanced reading of Q3 GDP. The single currency popped up above the 1.48-figure to stabilize around the 1.4850 mark against the greenback in Thursday trading. The Eurozone economic reports released overnight included Germany’s October unemployment data, and Eurozone sentiment surveys.

Germany’s October unemployment rate unexpectedly improved to 8.1% beating estimates for an increase to 8.3% from 8.2% in September. The Eurozone economic sentiment improved in October to 86.2 from 82.8 while the consumer sentiment improved slightly to -18.0, from -19.0 a month earlier.

EURUSD will encounter interim resistance starts at 1.4850, followed by 1.4880 and 1.49. Subsequent ceilings are eyed at 1.4930, backed by 1.4960 and 1.50. On the downside, support starts at 1.48, followed by 1.4770 and 1.4730. Additional floors are eyed at 1.47, backed by 1.4665 and 1.4620.

Published on  Thu, Oct 29 2009, 21:58 GMT