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European and US summary

Greenback Slips Amid Soft Data

Tue, Nov 25 2008, 22:11 GMT
by Korman Tam

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11/25/2008 3:00 pm: EUR/$..1.3036 $/JPY..95.55 GBP/$..1.5442 $/CHF..1.1862 AUD/$..0.6477 $/CAD..1.2266

Greenback Slips Amid Soft Data

The dollar extended loses against the majors in the Tuesday session, slumping to 1.3080 versus the euro and just shy of the 1.54-figure against the sterling. Dragging the greenback lower was a barrage of negative US data.

The US economic reports released earlier today were largely gloomy, with the decline in Q3 GDP largely in line with expectations – down 0.5% versus a 0.3% decline previously. The Q3 GDP sales fell by more than anticipated, lower by 1.4% from 0.8% while PCE prices were up by 5.2% versus 5.4%. The Case-Shiller home price survey plunged further with the monthly price index dropping by 1.8% in September versus a 1.0% decline a month earlier and on an annualized basis, down by 17.4% from 16.6% previously. The Richmond Fed index deteriorated further to -22 from -10, while the composite index slipped to -38 from -26. On a positive note, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey improved to 44.9 in November from a month earlier at 38.8, with sentiment improving on declining oil prices. The expectations component improved to 46.7 from
35.7 in October, while the present situation index drifted lower to 42.2 versus 43.5 previously.

Given the holiday-shortened week, the calendar for Wednesday will see a barrage of data including October personal consumption, core PCE, durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims, personal income, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, new home sales, and the NY NAPM index.

The Fed announced further steps to stem the crisis in the financial system, pledging up to $800 billion in an effort to free up the tight credit markets. The latest pledge is to facilitate lending to small businesses, students and homebuyers. With the Fed funds rate creeping near zero, the Fed is utilizing alternate measures to unfreeze the credit markets and ease the strains from a lock-up in credit.


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