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European and US summary

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USD Eases on Data, Oil

Tue, Aug 19 2008, 20:10 GMT
by Korman Tam

Forexnews.com

8/19/2008 3:17 pm: EUR/$..1.4768 $/JPY..109.77 GBP/$..1.8662 $/CHF..1.0920 AUD/$..0.8709 $/CAD..1.0626

USD Eases on Data, Oil

The dollar continued to relinquish its gains versus the majors in Tuesday trading, falling to 1.4791 against the euro and giving back the 110-handle versus the yen. Rebounding oil and commodity prices, combined with more evidence of deterioration in the US housing market prompted further profit taking in the greenback. Crude oil edged up to a session high of 116.12 but closed at 114.31 while spot gold recovered above the $800-level to $810/oz.

The economic reports released earlier in the session saw housing starts slump by 11% to 965k units for July, down from 1.066mln units a month prior. Building permits reversed the16.4% increase from June, sinking by 17.7% to its lowest level in 17-years at 937k units, down sharply from 1.138mln units previously. Meanwhile, producer prices firmed in July as core PPI increased to 0.7% up from 0.2% a month earlier and 3.5% compared with 3.0% from the previous month. Headline producer prices shot up to 9.8% versus 9.2% from a year earlier.

The next batch of US data are slated for release on Thursday, including weekly jobless claims, leading indicators, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. Weekly jobless claims are seen easing slightly to 433k, down from 450k, while July leading indicators are estimated to worsen to -0.2% from -0.1%. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey is expected to improve to -14.0, from -16.3 from July.

 
JPY Recovers Despite BoJ

The yen regained footing against the dollar, recovering to a session high at 109.53 despite a bleak outlook from the Bank of Japan. The BoJ, as expected, left monetary policy unchanged. However, in the Bank¡¯s economic outlook, it described the economy as ¡°sluggish¡± with BoJ Governor Shirakawa adding that ¡°the timing of an economic recovery is likely to be delayed slightly longer than initially expected¡±. The economic assessment was also downgraded to ¡°weakening¡± by the Cabinet Office, stressing that ¡°attention should be given to further downside risks that could stem from developments in the US economy, the stock and currency exchange markets and oil prices¡±.

USDJPY trades near 109.70, with support seen at 109.50, followed by 109 and 108.50. Subsequent floors will emerge at 108, followed by 107.70 and 107.45. On the topside, interim resistance starts at 110, followed by 110.30 and 110.70. Additional ceilings will emerge at 111 and 111.50.

Published on  Tue, Aug 19 2008, 20:12 GMT