http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2012-01-20.htmlWe had ended 2011 in rather gloomy terms, with the euro-area debt crisis overshadowing virtually all global market action and trends and with slim indications of a lasting, “final solution”. While the European woes continue to very much direct and influence the day-to-day global risk sentiment, the latest liquidity measures by the ECB, as well as well as decent economic readings from the US and China, have collectively allowed for a cautiously optimistic and positive start to 2012. The reliefFri, 20 Jan 2012 11:59:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2012-01-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-12-21.htmlIt is an understatement that it has not been a good year for the global economy or the global markets. We started the year with a horrible natural disaster in Japan, but the dominating theme throughout the year has been the ongoing euro crisis. The crisis has not only had a significant negative impact on the growth outlook for the global economy, but has also significantly increased risk aversion. This has obviously had significant negative impact on global Emerging Markets – both in terms ofWed, 21 Dec 2011 19:35:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-12-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-11-17.htmlOur October edition of EM Briefer carried the headline: Swung away from the edge of the abyss, highlighting a sense of serious financial distress in the financial markets, on the back of an escalating euro-area debt crisis and increasingly elevated volatility levels in emerging markets. We had also stressed there had been a broad-based shift toward easier or looser monetary policy stance in emerging markets, amid increasing direct FX market interventions in a number of countries (such as PolandThu, 17 Nov 2011 13:21:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-11-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-10-18.htmlFollowing our September edition of EM Briefer – in which we had highlighted the elevated levels of volatility in emerging markets taking hold, as a result of forceful recoupling of developed and emerging market risks – another challenging month has passed in the EM universe. Sense of impending doom, or a second Lehman-like near-collapse in the financial markets on the back of an escalating euro-area debt crisis, has seen several EM central banks take pre-emptive measures to add liquidity in FXTue, 18 Oct 2011 12:14:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-10-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-09-16.htmlDuring the course of the past month’s trading, volatility in the global markets has continued its upward momentum. Emerging markets in this regard have once again been fully coupled with the developed economies and while we have seen EM Q2 growth numbers consistently outperforming those of the developed nations, global scale risk aversion, deleveraging and the resultant rise in USD, escalating euro-area debt worries and a continued search for new “safe haven” markets have hit both EM stocks asFri, 16 Sep 2011 18:57:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-09-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-08-17.htmlOver the last month, volatility in the global financial markets has spiked on the back of European and US debt worries and disappointing macroeconomic numbers around the world. The sharp sell-off in the global stock markets in particular is likely to weigh on global growth and reduce global inflationary pressures. Consequently, we are also likely to see emerging market growth slow further in the coming months and inflationary pressures ease. Given the less rosy outlook for EM growth and easingWed, 17 Aug 2011 12:41:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-08-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-06-15.htmlFollowing the correction in commodity markets in early May, the past month has seen a rather lacklustre performance across the emerging markets equity universe, with virtually all key EM indices closing the month in the red. While the losses have been exacerbated in commodity-rich countries as well as Asia’s export-orientated economies, which have enjoyed robust global activity levels in the past year, we do not view the past month’s losses as indicating or foreshadowing a severe reduction inWed, 15 Jun 2011 14:49:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-06-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-05-17.htmlThe past two weeks have seen significantly sharp downside moves in the commodity markets, with silver standing out from the peer group with about 30% of its value eroded from the 2011 highs. While it may be premature to make longer-term value judgements on the current commodity correction and its full scale EM implications at this stage, the severity has so far been sufficiently large to scale down the upside potential for commodity prices in the foreseeable future. The correction in commodityTue, 17 May 2011 12:11:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-05-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-04-15.htmlForint continues its strong performance - and we expect more Risk appetite has returned to the global financial markets over the past months. This has also had an impact on the EM FX performances – but the picture is somewhat mixed. The strongest gainers have been the EMEA currencies – in particular the Hungarian forint and the Romanian leu. We think that there is potential for further gains for the Hungarian forint on the back of improved macro fundamentals and attractive carry. Furthermore,Fri, 15 Apr 2011 17:39:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-04-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-03-16.htmlEmerging Asian currencies soften The Emerging Asian currencies – particularly TWD and KRW – have been under some selling pressure over the past months. The tragic earthquake in Japan is adding to the negative sentiment in the Asian FX markets, but also worries about a slowdown in growth in China seem to be having a negative impact. We maintain our bullish view on most Emerging Asian currencies for now, but it is clear that if the Chinese economy slows down substantially it would impact mostWed, 16 Mar 2011 15:09:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-03-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-02-15.htmlFX: Egyptian uncertainty hits EGP, ILS and TRY There have been more headwinds than tailwinds for the EM currency markets over the past months. Especially the unrest in the Middle East and in particular in Egypt seem to have had a negative impact. Unsurprisingly, the Egyptian pound, the Israeli shekel and the Turkish lira have been among those hit. However, the hardest hit has been the South African rand – an overvalued currency that now is finally seeing an long overdue correction. FixedTue, 15 Feb 2011 17:01:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-02-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-01-17.htmlFX: Still good appetite for EM currencies Over the past month the rebound in the EM currencies has continued driven by a general rise in risk appetite and continued strong macroeconomic performance across the EM universe. The strong performance, however, is clearly beginning to worry policymakers in a numbers of countries, which has caused a number of countries to take action to curb the strengthening of their currencies. The Turkish authorities seem to have been most successful in thisMon, 17 Jan 2011 13:45:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2011-01-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-12-17.htmlFX: Turkish central bank curbs lira strength While most EM currencies have strengthened over recent months on continued improved global risk appetite, there are some notable exceptions. First of all, it seems as if the Central and Eastern European currencies have felt the negative impact of the euroland debt crisis, but some signs of a ‘soft patch’ in the CEE recovery is probably also having a negative impact. However, most notable is the weakening of the Turkish lira, which has weakenedFri, 17 Dec 2010 12:43:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-12-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-11-17.htmlFX: European Debt Worries Shadow the QE2 Party Presently, spiking market volatility and European debt worries have been the most punitive, in relative terms, on the EUR-linked EMEA currencies, with the largest losses in CEE currency performances emanating from their respective dollar pairings. As the risk-positive impact of QE2 is heavily countered by European debt worries and Chinese monetary tightening, the higher yielding USD-linked currencies, such as the South African rand and TurkishWed, 17 Nov 2010 18:15:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-11-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-10-15.htmlFX: Currency war continues The global ‘currency war’ has intensified further with investors getting in highyielding currencies. However, in terms of the relative performance among the EM currencies it is notable the central and eastern European (CEE) currencies have outperformed the US dollar-linked LATAM and Emerging Asian currencies over the past month on the back of the spike in EUR/USD. Overall, we see more strengthening in the EM currencies even though we also acknowledge that someFri, 15 Oct 2010 14:19:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-10-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-09-15.htmlFX: Risk on, risk off, risk on, risk off... Emerging Markets FX markets have been relatively directionless the over the past week, with about half of the EM currencies that we cover appreciating against EUR and USD and the other half depreciating. The overall theme has no doubt been whether the G3 economies are heading for a double-dip or whether the global recovery will continue. Lacking a decisive answer to this key question, the EM FX markets have mostly drifted sideways. Rates and yields:Wed, 15 Sep 2010 17:28:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-09-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-07-16.htmlFX: PLN and CZK rebound With market concerns shifting slightly from Europe to the US, the downtrend in EUR/USD seems to have been halted for now, which has given some support to the EUR-sensitive EM currencies over the past month. Most notable have been the rebounds in PLN, CZK and HUF and we think that especially PLN and CZK could see further gains. On the negative side have been the USD-sensitive currencies like MXN, KZT, EGP, INR and ILS. It is also notable that the Asian currencies haveFri, 16 Jul 2010 13:40:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-07-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-06-15.htmlFX: CEE currencies continue to go down It has been another difficult month for the Central and Eastern European markets. CEE currencies are still under serious pressure – hardest hit have been the Hungarian forint and Polish zloty. In addition, it is notable that the Korean won has taken a beating in the last month due to geo-political tensions rising. Rates and yields: European debt is sold off The ‘Greek Tragedy’ has also hit the Emerging Markets’ fixed income markets. Hardest hit have,Tue, 15 Jun 2010 18:20:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-06-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-05-17.htmlFX: Greek crisis hits CEE currencies hard The European sovereign debt crisis has now clearly spread to the Central and Eastern European markets, which have come under serious pressure over the past months. Hardest hit have been the forint and the zloty. Asian currencies have been the safe haven again and have performed relatively well, but even some of these recently met some headwind from the rise in risk aversion globally. Rates and yields: European debt is sold off The “Greek Tragedy“ hasMon, 17 May 2010 14:20:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-05-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-04-15.htmlFX: EM currencies continue up Emerging Markets currencies continue to perform well. In particular, Asian currencies have strengthened a lot over the last month. It is also notable that the Turkish lira has been one of the best performing currencies recently. This has contributed to the strong outlook on the Turkish economy. Rates and yields: Monetary tightening in Asia Tightening of monetary policies has begun in Asia, where we have already seen the first rate hikes and speculation ofThu, 15 Apr 2010 18:03:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-04-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-03-15.htmlFX: EM currencies performing well Almost all the Emerging Markets currencies have performed well over the last month due to improved market sentiment. The Turkish lira has lost a little as a result of rising political uncertainty in Turkey following speculation of a military coup. Rates and yields: Rates and yields down on growth worries As market worries over the strength of the global economic recovery have increased, global bond yields have been pushed down. This has also added to downwardMon, 15 Mar 2010 14:55:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-03-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-02-16.htmlFX: Greek worries hit CEE currencies EUR/USD has continued to move down over the past month, on the back of intensified worries over the situation in Greece. This has clearly hit the most eurosensitive currencies, such as PLN, CZK and HUF, hard. On the other hand, the most US dollar-sensitive currencies in Asia have performed well over the past month. Elsewhere, the otherwise strongly performing Brazilian real has also been hard hit by the setback in commodity prices over the past month. RatesTue, 16 Feb 2010 13:58:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-02-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-01-15.htmlFX: USD strength and growth optimism boost Asian currencies months supported by a continued improvement in global risk appetite. On EM FX markets it is notable that the dollar-sensitive Asian currencies have been doing quite well supported by continued strong optimism about the outlook for the Asian economies and the recent rebound in the dollar.The overall bullish sentiment has continued in most Emerging Markets over the past Rates and yield: Higher G3 yields up EM yields As we areFri, 15 Jan 2010 13:17:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2010-01-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-11-13.htmlMacro: Asian recovery as strong as ever In Emerging Asia and LATAM the recovery has been strong and activity in many of these countries is now back to levels prior to the global credit crisis. The recovery is remaining very fragile in most CEE countries. Rates and yield: At a turning point Over the last few months Emerging Market yields have dropped further, but within the last couple week jitters in global financial markets have begun to push up markets rates – for example in Hungary andFri, 13 Nov 2009 09:24:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-11-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-10-15.htmlMacro: Recovery continues, but some worries emerge The global economic recovery continues. However, over the past few months, there have been some negative surprises in the G3 economies. However, the news out of most Emerging Markets continues to be mostly positive. Rates and yield: A mixed picture, but look for higher rates It has been a bit of a mixed picture for the Emerging Markets’ fixed income markets. While rates and yields have risen sharply in Brazil and South Africa, we have seen theThu, 15 Oct 2009 13:49:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-10-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-09-16.htmlMacro: Recovery continues Over the past month there have been increasing signs that the global economy is recovering, especially in the manufacturing sector worldwide, but also in most Emerging Markets (EM). (see Global Scenarios ) Rates and yield: Fixed income rally continues EM rates and yields have continued to decline over the past month although Poland and Indonesia are significant “outliers” with increasing concerns regarding the outlook for public finances in Poland driving its yieldsWed, 16 Sep 2009 06:48:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-09-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-06-15.v02.htmlMacro: Manufacturing recovery underway The global macroeconomic situation has continued to improve over the past month and it is quite clear that a recovery is under way in the global manufacturing sector. This is particularly true for the Emerging Asian economies and where the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus packages seem to be working. There are even signs that the situation is improving in the hardest-hit region – Central and Eastern Europe. Looking forward, however, we expect aMon, 15 Jun 2009 15:39:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-06-15.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-06-15.htmlGlobal imbalances had grown large Two years ago more or less held the world record for current account deficits when the Latvian deficit reached more than 25% of GDP in Q3 2007. Since then we have seen a remarkable turnaround, and in January the Latvian current account actually turned positive! This is a very good illustration of the rebalancing of the global economy that has been going on since the second half of 2007. From 2003-4 to the second half 2007, global imbalances grew dramatically.Mon, 15 Jun 2009 14:56:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-06-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-05-15.htmlThere is a saying in the market that an equity investor should “sell in May and go away”, referring to the apparent seasonality in equity markets. Until now, the markets seem to have ignored this, and the global stock market rally has continued into May. That said, in recent days there have been some signs that the mood is changing from bullish to bearish – and this is becoming evident in Emerging Markets equity, fixed income and FX markets. Looking ahead for EM performance over the comingFri, 15 May 2009 15:41:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-05-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-04-30.htmlWe recommend selling CHF/TRY on a one-month horizon as a speculative play on the improved short-term outlook for emerging markets’ FX outlook on the back of increased global risk appetite. Even though we still believe that the fundamental macro outlook for many emerging markets economies is relatively bleak, we expect some positive surprises on US economic data in the coming weeks/months – specifically we expect a positive ISM manufacturing surprise tomorrow. In such environment EM FX couldThu, 30 Apr 2009 09:48:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-04-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-04-15.htmlThe global economic news flow improved on several fronts over the last month. First, there are tentative signs that the global industrial cycle is beginning to stabilise. Second, the IMF reformed its arsenal of credit facilities in order to get more funds out faster and with fewer conditions attached – at least for countries with strong fundamentals. Further, at the G20 meeting earlier this month, it was decided to boost IMF’s lending resources to USD 750bn. Manufacturing surveys have improvedWed, 15 Apr 2009 17:08:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-04-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-03-13.htmlAsia is that light…... • There is no doubt that the global economy is in the midst of the worst downturn since the end of the Second World War. However, there are some signs of improvement in certain parts of the global economy. • This is especially the case in Emerging Asia where there are signs that the deterioration in the manufacturing sector is beginning to come to an end. while the outlook is bleak for CEE • Things unfortunately look a lot worse in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), whichFri, 13 Mar 2009 15:13:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-03-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-02-13.htmlTentative signs of stabilisation ... • In recent months there have been tentative signs that the contraction of manufacturing activity is abating, albeit from very low levels. At the moment it looks as if China and India might be the first major economies to recover from the global financial crisis. • Despite some light emerging at the end of the tunnel, we remain cautious. The negative ramifications from the sharp contraction in activity will start to play out for emerging markets in theFri, 13 Feb 2009 15:14:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-02-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-01-16.htmlIndustrial productions in freefall and no improvement in sight • Economic data since October have shown a remarkably synchronised deterioration of the indicators for the manufacturing sector globally - and to date there has been no sign of any improvement. • The sharp drop in economic activity in the US and Euroland is now having a massively negative impact on Emerging Markets - particularly in industrialised exporting countries in Asia; however, the Central and Eastern European economies areFri, 16 Jan 2009 16:06:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2009-01-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2008-12-15.htmlEconomic indicators head down • It is clear to everybody that the global economy is in a very severe downturn, maybe the worst since the end of the Second World War, and that the global financial system is under severe stress. • The slowdown is broad-based, but we expect the CEE/CIS regions to be hit hardest. However, LATAM growth will also adjust significantly down. In Asia, growth will also slow in the short term, and we note that China is now slowing more than most watchers expected a fewMon, 15 Dec 2008 15:06:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2008-12-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2008-11-14.htmlEmerging Markets hit the wall Black October has turned into to Black November for Emerging Markets - both for the financial markets and for economic growth in most EM countries. The crunch is now hitting Emerging Markets very hard - something clearly visible in EM growth numbers. For some countries the credit crunch has led to outright economic and financial meltdown. Everyone hurting Most at risk of significant negative GDP growth are the Baltic States, Hungary, Romania, Ukraine, KazakhstanFri, 14 Nov 2008 15:13:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2008-11-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2008-10-15.htmlThe Icelandic canary The global credit crisis is now spreading to the most leveraged economies in the world. Iceland was the first economy to fall victim to the global credit crisis. However, it is not only Iceland that seems to be in need of a helping hand from the IMF. This week first Hungary was offered “technical and financial” support from the IMF and then the Ukraine later also asked for assistance. Contagion to leveraged markets Over the past month credit default swaps spiked in aWed, 15 Oct 2008 13:04:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2008-10-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2008-09-16.htmlHard to find much good news • It's hard to find much good news on the global economy these days and the same unfortunately can be said for Emerging Markets (EM). • A nasty cocktail of intensified global credit worries, increased political and geo-political tensions and finally plummeting commodity prices is making the outlook for most Emerging Markets bleaker. Commodity exporters are being hit • Since late June commodity prices have plummeted. This is obviously bad news for LATAM and CISTue, 16 Sep 2008 12:44:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2008-09-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2008-08-18.htmlUSD rebound to continue With the weakness in European economies becoming more pronounced recently, the upward trend in EUR/USD has been broken. Even though the short-term movement might be a bit exaggerated, the EUR/USD bullish sentiment has probably shifted. We therefore expect EUR/USD to continue to decline over the coming 12 months towards EUR/USD 1.40. Further dollar strength would be positive for the EM currencies with the highest positive correlations with the dollar. We believe thisMon, 18 Aug 2008 07:05:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2008-08-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2008-07-04.htmlTougher times for policymakers • In the June edition of Emerging Markets Briefer we made the argument that in today’s world of slowing global growth, rising inflation and an ongoing credit crisis, it is extremely important that economic policies be credible. We still believe this theme is extremely important, and market developments in the past month clearly underline this fact. • With the global economic and financial environment worsening, policymakers will be tested to a much greater degreeFri, 04 Jul 2008 14:48:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/emerging-markets-briefer/2008-07-04.html